BetMGM: It's Showtime Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Newcastle (AW)

16:15

Date 2023-12-08

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3-5yo

Prize £5,832

Winning Time 1m 42.45s (slow by 5.45s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Ribble Rouser (IRE) Duran Fentiman · Tim Easterby	5/1	Won
2nd	Meleki (GB) Ross Coakley · Simon & Ed Crisford	11/4	3
3rd	Mayjority (GB) Jonny Peate · Micky Hammond	80/1	3.75
4th	Wath Court (GB) Faye McManoman · Brian Rothwell	10/1	1
5th	La Jolie Fille (IRE) Joanna Mason · Michael & David Easterby	40/1	4.5
6th	Rooska (GER) P J McDonald · Grant Tuer	6/1	1
7th	Knight Of Magic (IRE) James Sullivan · Chris Grant	200/1	1.25
8th	Bluebottle Blue (GB) Adam Farragher · William Haggas	6/1	6.5
9th	Parish Councillor (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · David & Nicola Barron	9/4F	4.75

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (6)	Meleki Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	126	—	53	-	85	35	32d	—	—	-14	10.3	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Probably ran to a similar level on her two visits to Wolverhampton; thereabouts
1 (8)	Parish Councillor Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:David & Nicola Barron	J:Lewis Edmunds T:David & Nicola Barron	133	—	5-1	77	88	-	308d	—	—	+1	23.4	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Absence is worrying but has major form claims on his C&D win in February
7 (9)	Bluebottle Blue Chestnut J:Adam Farragher(3) T:William Haggas	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:William Haggas	126	p	36	-	81	28	32d	—	—	-10	7.1	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Finished closer when sixth at Wolverhampton but finished behind Meleki
4 (7)	Rooska Bay J:P J McDonald T:Grant Tuer	J:P J McDonald T:Grant Tuer	129	—	323234	68	84	56	14d	—	—	+2	14.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
All six defeats have come in maiden/novice races from 5f to 1m; consistent enough
3 (4)	Ribble Rouser Chestnut J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	129	t	-33332	74	81	53	35d	—	—	+10	18.6	1.75/1	8 13%
Six defeats and connections continue to shy away from handicaps; each-way claims
5 (2)	Wath Court Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Brian Rothwell	J:Faye McManoman T:Brian Rothwell	129	—	25	-	84	-	78d	0W/0P 1 run	—	-1	5.2	2.75/1	12 8%
First run much better than the second; not the easiest to weigh up
9 (5)	La Jolie Fille Chestnut J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	122	—	455	46	65	22	24d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.25/1	50 2%
An RPR of 48 is as good as it has got in her three runs and looks up against it
2 (3)	Mayjority Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Micky Hammond	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Micky Hammond	131	—	78779	52	65	-	28d	—	—	-1	0.9	24.75/1	100 1%
Kicks off for a new yard but has no obvious form claims for a race of this nature
6 (1)	Knight Of Magic Bay J:James Sullivan T:Chris Grant	J:James Sullivan T:Chris Grant	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	49.75/1	200 1%
100-1 for a Kelso bumper last month (good to soft) and didn't show much at all

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Meleki	5/2	9/4	5/2	5/2	9/4
Parish Councillor	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Bluebottle Blue	7/2	4	7/2	7/2	4
Rooska	11/2	5	11/2	11/2	11/2
Ribble Rouser	8	8	8	8	8
Wath Court	12	12	12	12	12
La Jolie Fille	50	50	50	50	50
Mayjority	100	80	80	80	66
Knight Of Magic	200	150	150	150	125

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Parish Councillor

23.4

OR: 6.8 Form: 10 Odds: 6.7

5/2

2nd

Ribble Rouser

18.6

OR: 6 Form: 10.1 Odds: 2.5

3rd

Rooska

14.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Meleki

10.3

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Bluebottle Blue

7.1

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5

7/2

Wath Court

5.2

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.7

Mayjority

0.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

La Jolie Fille

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Knight Of Magic

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

200

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Parish Councillor	77	88	—
Ribble Rouser	74	81	53
Rooska	68	84	56
Mayjority	52	65	—
La Jolie Fille	46	65	22
Meleki	—	85	35
Bluebottle Blue	—	81	28
Wath Court	—	84	—
Knight Of Magic	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rooska	14d ago	Fit
La Jolie Fille	24d ago	Fit
Mayjority	28d ago	Fit
Meleki	32d ago	Fit
Bluebottle Blue	32d ago	Fit
Ribble Rouser	35d ago	Fit
Wath Court	78d ago	Fresh
Parish Councillor	308d ago	Long break
Knight Of Magic	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.