Thames Materials Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)

Ascot

15:40

Date 2023-12-22

Distance 1m7f152y

Class Class 1

Going Good To Soft

Type NH Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4-5yo

Prize £14,238

Winning Time 3m 36.64s (slow by 5.64s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Let It Rain (GB) Harry Skelton · Dan Skelton	8/1	Won
2nd	Brechin Castle (IRE) Jack Quinlan · B F Brookhouse	9/4F	3.25
3rd	Celtic Dino (FR) Sam Twiston-Davies · Sam Thomas	9/2	6.5
4th	I Wont Back Down (IRE) Jonathan Burke · Harry Fry	17/2	1.25
5th	U Cant Be Serious (IRE) Freddie Gingell · Joe Tizzard	150/1	1
6th	I'm A Lumberjack (GB) Tom Cannon · Alan King	22/1	3.5
7th	Marvellous Mick (GB) Miss Olive Nicholls · Paul Nicholls	14/1	0.2
8th	Future Fortune (IRE) James Bowen · Warren Greatrex	33/1	38
9th	Minella Miracle (IRE) Mr John Reddington · Thomas Gallagher	250/1	4
10th	Mr Zippi (GB) Nathan Moscrop · Sara Ender	80/1	3
11th	Dunskay (FR) Kielan Woods · Ben Pauling	11/1	1.25
12th	Captain Bellamy (GB) Harry Cobden · Paul Nicholls	5/2	2
13th	Willoughby Cleeve (FR) Niall Houlihan · Gary Moore	100/1	12

Runners (15)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1	Brechin Castle Bay J:Jack Quinlan T:B F Brookhouse	J:Jack Quinlan T:B F Brookhouse	160	—	1-11	-	128	104	33d	—	1W/1P 1 run	-11	15	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Cheltenham Listed bumper winner; 4lb penalty here but strong claims nevertheless
3	Captain Bellamy Bay J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	156	—	1-1	-	127	62	52d	—	—	-2	25.4	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Point winner who made it 2-2 when impressive in Chepstow bumper; major player
4	Celtic Dino Chestnut J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Sam Thomas	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Sam Thomas	156	—	1	-	122	65	48d	—	—	+2	13.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Favourite when winning by about 4l on debut over C&D; useful prospect; on the shortlist
15	Let It Rain Bay J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	149	—	1	-	127	88	44d	—	—	+2	13.3	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Won with bundles in hand on debut in mares' bumper at Warwick; a possible for top yard
8	I Wont Back Down Bay J:Jonathan Burke T:Harry Fry	J:Jonathan Burke T:Harry Fry	156	—	61-	-	117	23	252d	—	—	+5	12.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Won comfortably at Ballinrobe in April on second start and not ruled out on stable debut
5	Dunskay Grey J:Kielan Woods T:Ben Pauling	J:Kielan Woods T:Ben Pauling	156	—	1	-	128	114	32d	—	—	+6	11.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Won on debut at Exeter last month & that could prove to be a useful race; one to consider
9	Marvellous Mick Bay J:Miss Olive Nicholls T:Paul Nicholls	J:Miss Olive Nicholls T:Paul Nicholls	156	—	1-	-	124	96	384d	—	—	+6	11.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Off since debut win a year ago; Cobden rides stablemate, but no surprise to see bold show
7	I'm A Lumberjack Bay J:Tom Cannon T:Alan King	J:Tom Cannon T:Alan King	156	—	2-2	-	111	88	43d	—	—	+5	9.7	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Runner-up on both starts but he's down the pecking order in this field in terms of form
14	Future Fortune Brown J:James Bowen T:Warren Greatrex	J:James Bowen T:Warren Greatrex	149	—	1	-	119	104	59d	—	—	+8	10.8	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Beat males to win on debut at Hereford; open to improvement but others have stronger form
11	Mr Zippi Bay J:Nathan Moscrop T:Sara Ender	J:Nathan Moscrop T:Sara Ender	156	—	11	-	109	84	182d	—	—	+15	17.7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
2-2 having won small-field bumpers in May/June; others have more substance to their form
13	Willoughby Cleeve Bay J:Niall Houlihan T:Gary Moore	J:Niall Houlihan T:Gary Moore	156	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
£31,000 3yo; market check advised but he's being thrown in at the deep end on debut
12	U Cant Be Serious Chestnut J:Freddie Gingell T:Joe Tizzard	J:Freddie Gingell T:Joe Tizzard	156	—	6-4	-	109	57	48d	—	—	-1	0.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Encouraging 4th over C&D on second start; has about 7l to find with the winner Celtic Dino
10	Minella Miracle Brown J:Mr John Reddington T:Thomas Gallagher	J:Mr John Reddington T:Thomas Gallagher	156	—	P-2305	-	93	70	27d	—	—	0	0.1	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Has shown some ability but nothing like enough to suggest he'll make an impact today
NR	Ami Bondhu Bay J:TBC T:Nick Gifford	J: T:Nick Gifford	156	—	0-1	-	119	86	39d	—	—	—	10	—	—
Easy win at Fakenham on second start and remains to be seen where his limitations lie
NR	Horaces Pearl Bay J:TBC T:Fergal O'Brien	J: T:Fergal O'Brien	156	—	1-1	-	127	90	41d	—	—	—	17	—	—
Has won at Wincanton on his two starts and this unbeaten 5yo could well be in the mix

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Brechin Castle	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	2/1
Captain Bellamy	15/8	9/4	2/1	2/1	2/1
Celtic Dino	11/2	13/2	13/2	6/1	6/1
Let It Rain	7/1	6/1	13/2	6/1	6/1
I Wont Back Down	12/1	11/1	12/1	11/1	10/1
Dunskay	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Marvellous Mick	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
I'm A Lumberjack	22/1	18/1	18/1	16/1	16/1
Future Fortune	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Mr Zippi	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	33/1
Willoughby Cleeve	100/1	100/1	100/1	66/1	80/1
U Cant Be Serious	100/1	80/1	66/1	66/1	80/1
Minella Miracle	250/1	250/1	200/1	250/1	200/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Captain Bellamy

25.4

OR: 0 Form: 17 Odds: 8.4

9/4

2nd

Mr Zippi

17.7

OR: 0 Form: 17 Odds: 0.7

50/1

3rd

Horaces Pearl

OR: 0 Form: 17 Odds: 0

—

Brechin Castle

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 8

9/4

Celtic Dino

13.3

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Let It Rain

13.3

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

7/1

I Wont Back Down

12.1

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Dunskay

11.4

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Marvellous Mick

11.4

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Future Fortune

10.8

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Ami Bondhu

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 0

—

I'm A Lumberjack

9.7

OR: 0 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Willoughby Cleeve

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

U Cant Be Serious

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Minella Miracle

0.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.1

250/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Brechin Castle	—	128	104
Captain Bellamy	—	127	62
Celtic Dino	—	122	65
Let It Rain	—	127	88
I Wont Back Down	—	117	23
Dunskay	—	128	114
Marvellous Mick	—	124	96
I'm A Lumberjack	—	111	88
Future Fortune	—	119	104
Mr Zippi	—	109	84
Willoughby Cleeve	—	—	—
U Cant Be Serious	—	109	57
Minella Miracle	—	93	70
Ami Bondhu	—	119	86
Horaces Pearl	—	127	90

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Minella Miracle	27d ago	Fit
Dunskay	32d ago	Fit
Brechin Castle	33d ago	Fit
Ami Bondhu	39d ago	Fit
Horaces Pearl	41d ago	Fit
I'm A Lumberjack	43d ago	Fit
Let It Rain	44d ago	Fit
Celtic Dino	48d ago	Fresh
U Cant Be Serious	48d ago	Fresh
Captain Bellamy	52d ago	Fresh
Future Fortune	59d ago	Fresh
Mr Zippi	182d ago	Long break
I Wont Back Down	252d ago	Long break
Marvellous Mick	384d ago	Long break
Willoughby Cleeve	—	—