quinnbet.com Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:00

quinnbet.com Handicap

Date 2024-04-16

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,972

Winning Time 1m 26.25s (slow by 2.45s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Outrun The Storm (IRE) Billy Garritty · Richard Fahey	18/1	Won
2nd	Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	9/1	0.1
3rd	Star Zinc (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Rebecca Menzies	10/1	1
4th	As If By Chance (GB) Alex Jary · Nigel Tinkler	150/1	.75
5th	Bobby Joe Leg (GB) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	18/1	0.1
6th	Feel The Need (GB) Daniel Tudhope · Michael Herrington	5/1	.75
7th	Engelbert (GB) Daniel Muscutt · James Ferguson	17/2	.5
8th	Prairie Falcon (GB) Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	4/1J	0.2
9th	Waiting All Night (GB) Hollie Doyle · Richard Spencer	4/1J	.5
10th	Abruzzo Mia (GB) Clifford Lee · Michael Dods	9/1	.75
11th	High Velocity (IRE) Billy Loughnane · David Loughnane	18/1	4
12th	Bicep (IRE) Harrison Shaw · Grant Tuer	12/1	0.2
13th	Vixey (GB) Ben Sanderson · Michael Herrington	100/1	7.5
14th	Matty Too (GB) William Pyle · Ian McInnes	66/1	.75

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (12)	Prairie Falcon Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	131	—	0283-2	76	94	35	34d	—	—	-2	16.9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Beaten a short-head off this mark over C&D last month; remains unexposed on the AW
1 (4)	Waiting All Night Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Richard Spencer	J:Hollie Doyle T:Richard Spencer	135	p	3274-3	80	91	45	21d	—	—	-2	15.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
1-3 on the AW and ran well when third on Southwell return; shortlisted
11 (10)	Feel The Need Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Michael Herrington	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Michael Herrington	128	—	6305-5	73	91	23	25d	—	—	-5	10.2	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Met plenty of trouble when fifth on stable/AW debut here last month; worth a second look
2 (1)	Abruzzo Mia Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	133	—	5-5912	78	92	60	25d	—	—	0	9.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Dual C&D winner since September and just beaten by an in-form rival here last time; player
3 (2)	Engelbert Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	133	t	1802-0	78	91	63	37d	—	—	-1	10.3	2.00/1	8/1 11%
First and second in two starts over C&D; can't be dismissed back under these conditions
8 (7)	Star Zinc Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Rebecca Menzies	131	—	721297	76	93	84	21d	—	—	+7	15.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Two C&D wins since November but not at his best the last twice; needs to get back on track
5 (8)	Bicep Bay J:Harrison Shaw T:Grant Tuer	J:Harrison Shaw T:Grant Tuer	132	—	0150-2	77	93	82	19d	—	—	+7	13.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
C&D winner last October and just beaten on Southwell return last month; high on the list
13 (9)	Outrun The Storm Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	125	—	27866-	70	93	69	166d	—	—	+2	7.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Back off his last winning mark but may need this after 166 days off
12 (13)	Bobby Joe Leg Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	126	b	162623	71	92	79	17d	—	—	+9	14.9	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Four straight AW wins at the start of the year and has continued to run well since
7 (11)	Archduke Ferdinand Grey J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	131	—	01846-	76	90	66	171d	—	—	+6	10.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Will need a solid pace over this trip, which isn't certain; off six months
9 (6)	High Velocity Grey J:Billy Loughnane T:David Loughnane	J:Billy Loughnane T:David Loughnane	130	—	/9-054	75	88	74	19d	—	—	+3	7.3	5.50/1	22/1 4%
8lb below his last winning mark, but well beaten in only previous attempt over this far
14 (3)	Vixey Bay J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:Michael Herrington	J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:Michael Herrington	124	—	2212-7	69	92	41	39d	—	—	+3	5.2	16.50/1	66/1 1%
7f turf winner last summer, but well held on stable debut/return last month
10 (5)	Matty Too Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Ian McInnes	J:William Pyle(5) T:Ian McInnes	129	v	079-30	74	92	71	34d	—	—	+5	6.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Last of ten on debut for this yard here last month; hard to recommend after that
4 (14)	As If By Chance Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	132	—	71900-	77	92	18	153d	—	—	+9	10.1	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Placed in three of his five starts over C&D, but opposable after five months off

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Prairie Falcon	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Waiting All Night	4/1	4/1	10/3	9/2	7/2
Feel The Need	5/1	5/1	9/2	9/2	9/2
Abruzzo Mia	17/2	8/1	17/2	15/2	15/2
Engelbert	15/2	8/1	8/1	13/2	11/2
Star Zinc	11/1	10/1	10/1	17/2	10/1
Bicep	12/1	12/1	12/1	11/1	12/1
Outrun The Storm	14/1	16/1	16/1	12/1	14/1
Bobby Joe Leg	18/1	16/1	14/1	12/1	12/1
Archduke Ferdinand	20/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
High Velocity	22/1	20/1	20/1	18/1	20/1
Vixey	66/1	50/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Matty Too	66/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
As If By Chance	100/1	100/1	80/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Prairie Falcon

16.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 5 Odds: 5.4

7/2

2nd

Waiting All Night

15.7

OR: 7.5 Form: 3 Odds: 5.2

9/2

3rd

Star Zinc

15.2

OR: 6.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Bobby Joe Leg

14.9

OR: 5.3 Form: 8 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Bicep

13.5

OR: 6.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Archduke Ferdinand

10.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Engelbert

10.3

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

8/1

Feel The Need

10.2

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

As If By Chance

10.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 3 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Abruzzo Mia

9.7

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Outrun The Storm

7.6

OR: 5 Form: 1 Odds: 1.6

16/1

High Velocity

7.3

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Matty Too

6.5

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Vixey

5.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Waiting All Night	80	91	45
Abruzzo Mia	78	92	60
Engelbert	78	91	63
Bicep	77	93	82
As If By Chance	77	92	18
Prairie Falcon	76	94	35
Star Zinc	76	93	84
Archduke Ferdinand	76	90	66
High Velocity	75	88	74
Matty Too	74	92	71
Feel The Need	73	91	23
Bobby Joe Leg	71	92	79
Outrun The Storm	70	93	69
Vixey	69	92	41

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bobby Joe Leg	17d ago	Fit
Bicep	19d ago	Fit
High Velocity	19d ago	Fit
Waiting All Night	21d ago	Fit
Star Zinc	21d ago	Fit
Feel The Need	25d ago	Fit
Abruzzo Mia	25d ago	Fit
Prairie Falcon	34d ago	Fit
Matty Too	34d ago	Fit
Engelbert	37d ago	Fit
Vixey	39d ago	Fit
As If By Chance	153d ago	Long break
Outrun The Storm	166d ago	Long break
Archduke Ferdinand	171d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.