Happy 19th Birthday Lily Watkinson Handicap (Div II)

Thirsk

18:35

Date 2024-04-20

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,187

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (9)	Gulliver Bay J:Jason Watson T:David O'Meara	J:Jason Watson T:David O'Meara	132	p	-84043	72	90	76	9d	—	—	-2	12.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Last won on grass in 2020 but claims on his hampered C&D run in September when 12lb higher
4 (11)	Mereside Diva Chestnut J:Callum Rodriguez T:David & Nicola Barron	J:Callum Rodriguez T:David & Nicola Barron	133	—	41621-	73	88	77	183d	—	—	+12	26.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Won two 6f handicaps in 2023, including on soft; went well on return last year
9 (2)	Blazing Son Chestnut J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	130	—	565-24	70	88	80	20d	—	—	-4	8.6	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Good AW strike-rate but 1-19 on turf; does have C&D form though and not far away
11 (13)	Lord Abama Chestnut J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	122	p	8677-9	62	84	81	20d	—	—	-4	5.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Maiden who looked to find this C&D on the sharp side in a division of the race last year
3 (8)	Minnesota Lad Chestnut J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	134	—	42402-	74	87	76	170d	—	—	+6	15.2	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Yet to win a handicap but suited by 6f on soft and primed for big run for in-form yard
7 (5)	Harry's Halo Chestnut J:Cieren Fallon T:Kevin Frost	J:Cieren Fallon T:Kevin Frost	132	ht	2559-5	72	91	74	27d	—	—	-1	7.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Quite temptingly treated on best 6f form last summer; low-key return (favourite) over 5f
1 (6)	Our Absent Friends Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Tristan Davidson	J:Jason Hart T:Tristan Davidson	135	t	71-906	75	90	84	38d	—	0W/1P 1 run	+2	8	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Not in great form on AW but back on the same mark as his 6f win on soft at Ayr in July
6 (10)	Shandy Star Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	132	eb	7420-6	72	84	49	27d	—	—	+3	6.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Three 6f wins as 2yo; fallow season in 2023 but down weights and better for reappearance
13 (7)	Asadjumeirah Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	116	tv	-42560	56	86	88	11d	—	—	0	4.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
C&D winner on good; heavy ground against him on return and has ground worries again
10 (4)	Patontheback Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	125	—	2300-7	65	89	82	23d	—	—	+1	4.9	4.50/1	18/1 5%
0-14 on turf and this C&D looked an inadequate test last June; others more likely
5 (3)	Miss Bella Brand Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque	132	v	018-80	72	88	82	23d	—	—	+3	6.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Multiple 6f winner, including on soft; well beaten on AW latest; first time in headgear
12 (12)	Hurstwood Grey J:William Pyle(5) T:Peter Niven	J:William Pyle(5) T:Peter Niven	118	—	83502-	58	87	80	158d	—	—	+4	9.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Soundly beaten in all three C&D runs and has yet to shine on his reappearance
NR (1)	William Dewhirst Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	134	—	3316-9	74	88	69	48d	—	0W/0P 1 run	—	6	—	—
C&D maiden winner on heavy; stayed on well for 7f Carlisle win in September; more to come

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Gulliver	9/2	9/2	9/2
Mereside Diva	9/2	9/2	9/2
Blazing Son	5/1	5/1	5/1
Lord Abama	13/2	13/2	13/2
Minnesota Lad	7/1	7/1	7/1
Harry's Halo	8/1	8/1	8/1
Our Absent Friends	11/1	11/1	11/1
Shandy Star	18/1	18/1	18/1
Asadjumeirah	16/1	16/1	16/1
Patontheback	18/1	18/1	18/1
Miss Bella Brand	25/1	25/1	25/1
Hurstwood	22/1	22/1	22/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mereside Diva

26.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 16.5 Odds: 4

9/2

2nd

Minnesota Lad

15.2

OR: 6 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.7

7/1

3rd

Gulliver

12.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 3 Odds: 4

9/2

Hurstwood

9.2

OR: 2 Form: 5.9 Odds: 1.3

22/1

Blazing Son

8.6

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

5/1

Our Absent Friends

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

11/1

Harry's Halo

7.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Shandy Star

6.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

18/1

Miss Bella Brand

6.3

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

25/1

William Dewhirst

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Lord Abama

5.9

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Patontheback

4.9

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

18/1

Asadjumeirah

4.2

OR: 1.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.2

16/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Our Absent Friends	75	90	84
Minnesota Lad	74	87	76
William Dewhirst	74	88	69
Mereside Diva	73	88	77
Gulliver	72	90	76
Harry's Halo	72	91	74
Shandy Star	72	84	49
Miss Bella Brand	72	88	82
Blazing Son	70	88	80
Patontheback	65	89	82
Lord Abama	62	84	81
Hurstwood	58	87	80
Asadjumeirah	56	86	88

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Gulliver	9d ago	Quick return
Asadjumeirah	11d ago	Quick return
Blazing Son	20d ago	Fit
Lord Abama	20d ago	Fit
Patontheback	23d ago	Fit
Miss Bella Brand	23d ago	Fit
Harry's Halo	27d ago	Fit
Shandy Star	27d ago	Fit
Our Absent Friends	38d ago	Fit
William Dewhirst	48d ago	Fresh
Hurstwood	158d ago	Long break
Minnesota Lad	170d ago	Long break
Mereside Diva	183d ago	Long break