Read Harry Cobden's Blog At Planet Sport Bet Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

Southwell

17:15

Date 2024-04-23

Distance 2m4f88y

Class Class 4

Going Good

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,066

Winning Time 5m 9.20s (slow by 14.20s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Nordic Tiger (FR) Alice Stevens · Harry Derham	7/2	Won
2nd	Kaleb (IRE) Jack Quinlan · Amy Murphy	5/1	0.05
3rd	Pozo Emery (FR) John Kington · L J Morgan	20/1	3.25
4th	Allbetsoff (IRE) Jamie Hamilton · Mark Walford	13/2	1.5
5th	Klitschko (GB) Tom Cannon · Alan King	9/4F	3.75
6th	Letthedustsettle (IRE) Stan Sheppard · Tom Lacey	15/2	0.3
7th	Basford (IRE) Sean Quinlan · Jennie Candlish	9/1	4.5
8th	Yes Indeed (FR) Richie McLernon · Jonjo O'Neill	16/1	.75
9th	Kerosine Light (IRE) Theo Gillard · Donald McCain	50/1	16
10th	Nelson River (GB) Lilly Pinchin · Tony Carroll	80/1	12

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8	Nordic Tiger Bay J:Alice Stevens(5) T:Harry Derham	J:Alice Stevens(5) T:Harry Derham	162	t	533112	114	124	109	43d	—	—	+17	41.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Dual winner in February; no match for winner when second in March but remains of interest
4	Klitschko Bay J:Tom Cannon T:Alan King	J:Tom Cannon T:Alan King	165	h	21-327	117	124	116	52d	—	—	+1	23.4	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Struggled on heavy ground last time but a big player if judged on earlier Warwick second
1	Kaleb Bay J:Jack Quinlan T:Amy Murphy	J:Jack Quinlan T:Amy Murphy	169	p	-2270U	121	123	99	71d	—	—	+10	22.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Has developed a tendency to race lazily but is on a good mark and enters calculations
10	Letthedustsettle Bay J:Stan Sheppard T:Tom Lacey	J:Stan Sheppard T:Tom Lacey	160	—	01123P	112	121	105	29d	—	—	+14	27.2	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Has shown big improvement this year but needs to bounce back from a poor performance
6	Basford Bay J:Sean Quinlan T:Jennie Candlish	J:Sean Quinlan T:Jennie Candlish	163	—	21211P	115	122	78	266d	—	—	+24	32.8	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Triple hurdle winner in early part of season but absent since poor performance last August
11	Allbetsoff Bay J:Jamie Hamilton T:Mark Walford	J:Jamie Hamilton T:Mark Walford	156	—	331410	108	122	112	150d	—	—	+20	27.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Won three 2m hurdles in 2023 but absent since below-par run in November
3	Yes Indeed Bay J:Richie McLernon T:Jonjo O'Neill	J:Richie McLernon T:Jonjo O'Neill	165	t	234P44	117	-	-	24d	—	—	+12	18.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
On tempting mark for this return to hurdling but has been out of form over fences
12	Pozo Emery Bay J:John Kington T:L J Morgan	J:John Kington T:L J Morgan	154	v	/PP324	106	123	107	36d	—	—	+14	19.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Largely disappointing since returning this season from mammoth absence
5	Kerosine Light Bay J:Theo Gillard T:Donald McCain	J:Theo Gillard T:Donald McCain	163	b	321-5P	115	122	-	45d	—	—	+14	17.1	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Triple hurdle winner in 2022 but seems to have lost his way; headgear switched
7	Nelson River Bay J:Lilly Pinchin T:Tony Carroll	J:Lilly Pinchin T:Tony Carroll	163	—	5/P46-	115	-	-	—	—	—	+15	16.8	12.50/1	50/1 2%
In poor form in low-grade AW handicaps this year; has too much to prove on hurdle return
NR	Billy Boi Blue Bay J:Kielan Woods T:David Killahena & Graeme McPherson	J:Kielan Woods T:David Killahena & Graeme McPherson	167	t	7-4212	119	119	112	35d	—	—	—	17.3	—	—
Clear winner of Hereford maiden in January; might have improvement to come in handicaps
NR	Intimate Grey J:Charlie Deutsch T:Venetia Williams	J:Charlie Deutsch T:Venetia Williams	161	—	-23651	113	122	101	27d	—	—	—	27.7	—	—
Drew clear to open account at Hereford (2m) last month; may improve again over 2m4f
NR	Captain's Pick Bay J:Jack Tudor T:Christian Williams	J:Jack Tudor T:Christian Williams	149	—	-25P48	101	111	63	12d	—	—	—	13	—	—
Fair fourth in Plumpton maiden this month; opening handicap mark demands improvement

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Nordic Tiger	5/2	5/2	9/4	11/4	9/4
Klitschko	3/1	10/3	3/1	5/2	11/4
Kaleb	11/2	6/1	11/2	11/2	11/2
Letthedustsettle	7/1	7/1	13/2	7/1	7/1
Basford	10/1	9/1	17/2	15/2	8/1
Allbetsoff	12/1	12/1	12/1	11/1	11/1
Yes Indeed	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Pozo Emery	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Kerosine Light	33/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	25/1
Nelson River	40/1	50/1	40/1	40/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Nordic Tiger

41.9

OR: 16 Form: 18.5 Odds: 7.4

11/4

2nd

Basford

32.8

OR: 16.3 Form: 14 Odds: 2.5

10/1

3rd

Intimate

27.7

OR: 15.8 Form: 11.9 Odds: 0

—

Letthedustsettle

27.2

OR: 15.5 Form: 8.1 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Allbetsoff

27.2

OR: 14.5 Form: 10.6 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Klitschko

23.4

OR: 16.8 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

10/3

Kaleb

22.4

OR: 17.8 Form: 1 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Pozo Emery

19.9

OR: 14 Form: 4.3 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Yes Indeed

18.7

OR: 16.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Billy Boi Blue

17.3

OR: 17.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Kerosine Light

17.1

OR: 16.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Nelson River

16.8

OR: 16.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Captain's Pick

OR: 12.8 Form: 0.3 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Kaleb	121	123	99
Billy Boi Blue	119	119	112
Klitschko	117	124	116
Yes Indeed	117	—	—
Basford	115	122	78
Kerosine Light	115	122	—
Nelson River	115	—	—
Nordic Tiger	114	124	109
Intimate	113	122	101
Letthedustsettle	112	121	105
Allbetsoff	108	122	112
Pozo Emery	106	123	107
Captain's Pick	101	111	63

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Captain's Pick	12d ago	Quick return
Yes Indeed	24d ago	Fit
Intimate	27d ago	Fit
Letthedustsettle	29d ago	Fit
Billy Boi Blue	35d ago	Fit
Pozo Emery	36d ago	Fit
Nordic Tiger	43d ago	Fit
Kerosine Light	45d ago	Fit
Klitschko	52d ago	Fresh
Kaleb	71d ago	Fresh
Allbetsoff	150d ago	Long break
Basford	266d ago	Long break
Nelson River	—	—