Roflow Supporting ABF & Ssafa Charities Fillies' Handicap

Newcastle (AW)

19:30

Date 2024-04-26

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,716

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (5)	Royal Velvet Bay J:Jason Hart T:William Knight	J:Jason Hart T:William Knight	136	—	61-	69	74	48	130d	—	—	-4	22.8	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Promise on debut and picked up well off a steady pace to win latest; unexposed; big chance
7 (8)	Berrygate Grey Roan J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	131	—	32-329	64	77	69	81d	—	—	-9	8.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Went close on h'cap debut in January (7f); flopped at Lingfield soon after; absent since
1 (3)	Blue Virtue Bay J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	137	—	3-2320	70	76	61	28d	—	—	-5	12.1	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Too free in good 7f handicap latest (favourite); may be well treated but 6f perhaps best
5 (6)	Cerulean Summer Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Dylan Cunha	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Dylan Cunha	134	—	32-8	67	73	36	31d	—	—	-2	6.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Makes handicap debut at a realistic level and she's one to consider for a yard on the up
4 (1)	Buttercross Flyer Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Craig Lidster	J:William Pyle(5) T:Craig Lidster	135	—	14266-	68	73	59	126d	—	—	+3	11.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Generally reliable as 2yo including a C&D win; perhaps vulnerable to improvers on return
6 (7)	Vintage Love Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Grant Tuer	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Grant Tuer	133	—	33228-	66	75	35	178d	—	—	+7	13.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Placed in five of her seven 2yo runs; absent since a lacklustre C&D effort in October
2 (4)	Last Applause Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	137	—	316-8	70	73	35	23d	—	—	+3	5.9	5.50/1	22/1 4%
7f turf winner as a 2yo; low-key reappearance but the ground was heavy; can do better
8 (2)	Royal City Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Tristan Davidson	J:Andrew Mullen T:Tristan Davidson	117	—	050-4	50	74	44	10d	—	—	-2	0.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Encouraging handicap debut ten days ago and 7f should suit; this is a better race though

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Royal Velvet	2/1	2/1	2/1	2/1	2/1
Berrygate	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Blue Virtue	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Cerulean Summer	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Buttercross Flyer	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2
Vintage Love	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Last Applause	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Royal City	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Royal Velvet

22.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 10 Odds: 8

2/1

2nd

Vintage Love

13.2

OR: 4 Form: 7.5 Odds: 1.7

11/1

3rd

Blue Virtue

12.1

OR: 5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5

7/2

Buttercross Flyer

11.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.2

17/2

Berrygate

8.5

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

7/2

Cerulean Summer

6.8

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Last Applause

5.9

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Royal City

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Blue Virtue	70	76	61
Last Applause	70	73	35
Royal Velvet	69	74	48
Buttercross Flyer	68	73	59
Cerulean Summer	67	73	36
Vintage Love	66	75	35
Berrygate	64	77	69
Royal City	50	74	44

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Royal City	10d ago	Quick return
Last Applause	23d ago	Fit
Blue Virtue	28d ago	Fit
Cerulean Summer	31d ago	Fit
Berrygate	81d ago	Fresh
Buttercross Flyer	126d ago	Long break
Royal Velvet	130d ago	Long break
Vintage Love	178d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.