Download The Raceday Ready App "Confined" Handicap (Horses with no win since 2023 Flat Turf Season)

Newcastle (AW)

20:30

Date 2024-04-26

Distance 5f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (10)	Catch Cunningham Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	133	—	648-35	68	83	75	29d	—	—	-6	8.5	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Encouragement when placed on stable debut at Wolverhampton (5f); easing mark
12 (4)	Elzaal Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Paul Midgley	J:Ryan Sexton T:Paul Midgley	125	—	224-24	60	84	74	49d	—	—	-8	6.5	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Five C&D wins; ultra-consistent so merits plenty of respect; low draw a possible negative.
13 (11)	Ernest Rutherford Bay J:Jason Hart T:Tim Easterby	J:Jason Hart T:Tim Easterby	121	tp	0870-4	56	78	69	17d	—	—	-7	4.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Hold and cold for Tim Easterby; 9lb lower than when runner-up at Nottingham last summer.
2 (12)	Zuffolo Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	135	—	519-55	70	84	77	90d	—	—	-3	8.3	1.75/1	7/1 13%
C&D winner in November; on last winning mark; first appearance since January.
8 (9)	Saaheq Bay J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Adrian Nicholls	J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Adrian Nicholls	130	p	690-33	65	84	70	28d	—	—	-4	6.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Won twice at Chelmsford (5f) last year; in decent form but stiff 5f might be too much
1 (6)	Dark Kestrel Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	136	t	7-3200	71	83	73	6d	—	—	-1	7.8	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Competitive from similar marks over C&D in January; subsequent efforts less encouraging.
4 (8)	Runninwild Bay J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	133	—	69497-	68	78	59	175d	—	—	-2	6.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
C&D winner (Class 5) in June 2022; mostly disappointing during 2023; others preferred.
9 (14)	Let's Go Hugo Chestnut J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Ollie Pears	J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Ollie Pears	128	—	122-30	63	83	77	28d	—	—	-1	5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Wolverhampton regular; reasonably handicapped if able to translate peak form to Newcastle.
6 (7)	J R Cavagin Bay J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	J:David Nolan T:Paul Midgley	132	—	74281-	67	81	-	212d	—	—	+12	18.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Redcar winner (5f) in September; 5lb rise no problem but 0-2 on AW and lacks recent run
3 (13)	Never This Way Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	134	—	3424-0	69	85	-	17d	—	—	+1	6.1	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Runner-up at Chelmsford (6f) last summer; posted a low-key Thirsk debut for Ruth Carr.
10 (1)	Azucena Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ann Duffield	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ann Duffield	126	—	80308-	61	84	76	179d	—	—	+1	5.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Inconsistent; 6lb lower than when scoring over C&D (under Paul Mulrennan) in October 2022.
11 (2)	Modular Magic Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Jim Goldie	J:William Pyle(5) T:Jim Goldie	125	—	67680-	60	79	34	168d	—	—	+1	3.1	10.00/1	40/1 2%
12lb lower than when runner-up over C&D in Jan 2023; failed to sparkle on stable debut.
NR (5)	Sugar Baby Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Peter Niven	J:NON-RUNNER T:Peter Niven	131	—	38786-	66	78	-	168d	—	—	—	4.6	—	—
Best form on easy tracks such as York, Thirsk and Musselburgh; work to do with Zuffolo.
NR (3)	Sound Of Iona Chestnut J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Jim Goldie	J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Jim Goldie	116	—	8-8670	51	78	67	18d	—	—	—	0.3	—	—
Downhill since her last win at Ascot (6f, Class 4) in September 2022; clear risks attached

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Catch Cunningham	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	9/2
Elzaal	5/1	5/1	9/2	9/2	5/1
Ernest Rutherford	6/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Zuffolo	7/1	13/2	6/1	6/1	6/1
Saaheq	7/1	15/2	7/1	7/1	7/1
Dark Kestrel	9/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Runninwild	9/1	17/2	17/2	8/1	8/1
Let's Go Hugo	14/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
J R Cavagin	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Never This Way	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	16/1
Azucena	25/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Modular Magic	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

J R Cavagin

18.5

OR: 4.3 Form: 12.5 Odds: 1.7

12/1

2nd

Catch Cunningham

8.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4

5/1

3rd

Zuffolo

8.3

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Dark Kestrel

7.8

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Runninwild

6.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Saaheq

6.8

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Elzaal

6.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4

5/1

Never This Way

6.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Azucena

5.3

OR: 2.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Let's Go Hugo

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Ernest Rutherford

4.8

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Sugar Baby

4.6

OR: 4 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0

—

Modular Magic

3.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Sound Of Iona

0.3

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dark Kestrel	71	83	73
Zuffolo	70	84	77
Never This Way	69	85	—
Catch Cunningham	68	83	75
Runninwild	68	78	59
J R Cavagin	67	81	—
Sugar Baby	66	78	—
Saaheq	65	84	70
Let's Go Hugo	63	83	77
Azucena	61	84	76
Elzaal	60	84	74
Modular Magic	60	79	34
Ernest Rutherford	56	78	69
Sound Of Iona	51	78	67

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Dark Kestrel	6d ago	Quick return
Ernest Rutherford	17d ago	Fit
Never This Way	17d ago	Fit
Sound Of Iona	18d ago	Fit
Saaheq	28d ago	Fit
Let's Go Hugo	28d ago	Fit
Catch Cunningham	29d ago	Fit
Elzaal	49d ago	Fresh
Zuffolo	90d ago	Fresh
Modular Magic	168d ago	Long break
Sugar Baby	168d ago	Long break
Runninwild	175d ago	Long break
Azucena	179d ago	Long break
J R Cavagin	212d ago	Long break