Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)

Ayr

3:40

Date 2024-09-20

Distance 5f110y

Class Class 1

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £26,654

Runners (13)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
13 (12)	Woodhay Wonder b J:P J McDonald T:Tom Ward	J:P J McDonald T:Tom Ward	126	—	1-1143	100	119	109	55d	—	—	+7	24.5	4/1 20%
Four straight 6f wins between August 2023 and May; two good 5f runs at Ascot; not far away
9 (1)	Gutsy Girl b J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	126	—	1-3312	90	109	92	30d	—	—	+7	21	11/2 15%
Lightly raced; impressive over 6f on AW before 2nd over 5f at York; trip can suit; improve
7 (6)	Frost At Dawn gr/ro J:Jason Hart T:William Knight	J:Jason Hart T:William Knight	126	—	732100	106	122	87	28d	—	—	+12	24.7	13/2 13%
Good form at 6f and 5f at Meydan early in 2024; creditable show in Group 1 at York since
5 (3)	Rage Of Bamby b J:Harry Davies T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Harry Davies T:Eve Johnson Houghton	128	—	57-014	104	122	98	33d	—	—	+5	16.8	13/2 13%
Impressive 6f handicap win at York; behind Marine Wave since; worth a go with lesser test
12 (2)	Vicario ch J:Billy Loughnane T:Ed Walker	J:Billy Loughnane T:Ed Walker	126	t	-22321	88	106	88	42d	—	—	+19	30.1	17/2 11%
Impressed when winning on first 6f attempt; difficult weights task but could outperform
2 (8)	Marine Wave ch J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	131	—	318217	104	116	98	12d	—	—	+19	27.4	10/1 9%
Storming win in 6f Listed race before dropping right out latest; needs quick about-face
3 (4)	Katey Kontent ch J:Connor Beasley T:Clive Cox	J:Connor Beasley T:Clive Cox	128	—	2-1432	90	111	91	52d	—	—	+8	15.7	11/1 8%
Both 2yo wins at 5f; holding her form in 6f handicaps; has work to do on these terms
8 (9)	Got To Love A Grey gr J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	126	—	674020	96	115	106	30d	—	—	+10	16.9	12/1 8%
Two Listed wins, over 5f as 2yo and an extended 5f on comeback; ran flat latest
1 (11)	Azure Blue gr J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	131	—	-75198	106	114	89	12d	—	—	+13	21.4	11/1 8%
Group 2 winner in May 2023; dead-heated for 5f Listed race here in June; tailed off latest
6 (5)	Star Of Lady M gr J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	128	v	532118	95	114	103	22d	—	—	+22	26.7	20/1 5%
Five wins at 5f-6f in 2024; career-best form when clear 5f winner on latest turf start
11 (7)	Unbreak My Heart ch J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	126	—	-06470	92	108	80	50d	—	—	+9	10.9	66/1 1%
Has run well in Group/Listed races since 2yo win; well below best on handicap debut latest
4 (13)	Pepsi Cat b J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	128	t	151405	88	109	95	30d	—	—	+11	12.9	66/1 1%
Prolific winner, mostly at 5f; ground to make up on Azure Blue on 5f form here in June
10 (10)	Queen's Guard b J:Daniel Tudhope T:Michael Bell	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Michael Bell	126	—	231666	87	107	68	33d	—	—	+12	13.2	100/1 1%
Has won on turf but best on AW; well held in a handicap and 2 Listed races on last 3 runs.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Woodhay Wonder	4/1	7/2	4/1	4/1	4/1
Gutsy Girl	11/2	5/1	5/1	9/2	9/2
Frost At Dawn	13/2	11/2	6/1	11/2	11/2
Rage Of Bamby	11/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	6/1
Vicario	7/1	8/1	8/1	15/2	17/2
Marine Wave	17/2	9/1	9/1	9/1	10/1
Katey Kontent	10/1	11/1	10/1	10/1	11/1
Got To Love A Grey	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Azure Blue	8/1	10/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Star Of Lady M	20/1	16/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
Unbreak My Heart	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Pepsi Cat	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1
Queen's Guard	100/1	66/1	80/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Vicario

30.1

OR: 9.5 Form: 17.5 Odds: 3.1

17/2

2nd

Marine Wave

27.4

OR: 13.5 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.4

10/1

3rd

Star Of Lady M

26.7

OR: 11.3 Form: 14.1 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Frost At Dawn

24.7

OR: 14 Form: 7.1 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Woodhay Wonder

24.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 7 Odds: 5

4/1

Azure Blue

21.4

OR: 14 Form: 5 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Gutsy Girl

OR: 10 Form: 7 Odds: 4

11/2

Got To Love A Grey

16.9

OR: 11.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Rage Of Bamby

16.8

OR: 13.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Katey Kontent

15.7

OR: 10 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Queen's Guard

13.2

OR: 9.3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Pepsi Cat

12.9

OR: 9.5 Form: 3 Odds: 0.4

66/1

Unbreak My Heart

10.9

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Frost At Dawn Top Rated	106	122	87
Azure Blue	106	114	89
Rage Of Bamby	104	122	98
Marine Wave	104	116	98
Woodhay Wonder	100	119	109
Got To Love A Grey	96	115	106
Star Of Lady M	95	114	103
Unbreak My Heart	92	108	80
Gutsy Girl	90	109	92
Katey Kontent	90	111	91
Vicario	88	106	88
Pepsi Cat	88	109	95
Queen's Guard	87	107	68

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Marine Wave	12d ago	Quick return
Azure Blue	12d ago	Quick return
Star Of Lady M	22d ago	Fit
Frost At Dawn	28d ago	Fit
Gutsy Girl	30d ago	Fit
Got To Love A Grey	30d ago	Fit
Pepsi Cat	30d ago	Fit
Rage Of Bamby	33d ago	Fit
Queen's Guard	33d ago	Fit
Vicario	42d ago	Fit
Unbreak My Heart	50d ago	Fresh
Katey Kontent	52d ago	Fresh
Woodhay Wonder	55d ago	Fresh