EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race) (Div I)

Southwell (AW)

19:15

Date 2024-10-05

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,402

Winning Time 1m 12.77s (slow by 0.57s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Rogue Sensation (GB) P J McDonald · Edward Bethell	5/2	Won
2nd	Maui Breeze (GB) Callum Shepherd · Charlie Fellowes	6/4F	2.75
3rd	Maids Head (IRE) Benoit De La Sayette · Marco Botti	9/2	3.5
4th	Genius Mistake (GB) Alex Jary · Tim Easterby	25/1	3.25
5th	Tippy Top (GB) Kieran O'Neill · Gemma Tutty	40/1	4
6th	Blue Dandy (IRE) Jack Mitchell · James Tate	10/1	1
7th	Followeroffashion (IRE) Laura Coughlan · Archie Watson	40/1	.75
8th	Freedom Bay (GB) Ross Coakley · Stuart Kittow	100/1	1
9th	A La Louche (GB) Shane Kelly · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	50/1	3.25
10th	Sugar Kane (GB) Richard Kingscote · Daniel & Claire Kubler	14/1	0.1
11th	Maid Of Killybegs (IRE) Billy Loughnane · Charlie Johnston	22/1	2.25

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (2)	Maui Breeze Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	128	—	53	-	82	-	102d	—	—	-26	17.2	0.31/1	5/4 44%
Ran on well for close third at Newbury in June; major player if as good on Tapeta
5 (12)	Rogue Sensation Bay J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	128	—	26	-	92	-	29d	—	—	-12	10.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Flopped on second start but has strong claims here if judged on debut effort
2 (11)	Blue Dandy Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:James Tate	J:Jack Mitchell T:James Tate	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-7	2.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Out of a half-sister to a 6f Listed winner; stable has good strike-rate with newcomers
3 (7)	Maids Head Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Marco Botti	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Marco Botti	128	—	3	-	74	-	78d	—	—	-5	6.3	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Quite promising debut when third of five at Haydock in July; could have a say here
12 (4)	Sugar Kane Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	124	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
First foal from half-sister to 6f 2yo Group 3 winner Cairn Gorm; market may guide
11 (1)	Genius Mistake Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Tim Easterby	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Tim Easterby	124	—	2	-	79	-	11d	—	—	+1	6.4	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Belied 100-1 odds and a slow start when close second on debut at Beverley (5f); a player
9 (10)	Maid Of Killybegs Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Charlie Johnston	J:Billy Loughnane T:Charlie Johnston	126	—	7	-	59	-	24d	—	—	-5	1.7	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Shaped with more promise than bare form suggests on debut; can improve
7 (8)	Followeroffashion Bay J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Archie Watson	J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Archie Watson	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Out of a useful and well-connected 5f winner; stable has plenty of first-time-out winners
10 (5)	Tippy Top Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Gemma Tutty	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Gemma Tutty	126	—	53	-	72	-	100d	—	—	0	4.2	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Showed significant ability on both starts for former stable but has a bit to find here
1 (9)	A La Louche Bay J:Shane Kelly T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Shane Kelly T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.6	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Newcomer; pedigree suggests she'll need longer trips to be seen to best effect
8 (6)	Freedom Bay Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Stuart Kittow	J:Ross Coakley T:Stuart Kittow	126	—	—	-	41	-	25d	—	—	-1	0.5	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Well beaten (albeit on soft ground) when 125-1 for last month's debut at Leicester (7f)
NR (3)	Desert Eye Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Amy Murphy	J:NON-RUNNER T:Amy Murphy	126	t	74	-	53	-	25d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Showed only minor promise on her first two outings and needs to take a big step forward

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Maui Breeze	evn	5/4	11/10	11/10	10/11
Rogue Sensation	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	10/3
Blue Dandy	8/1	15/2	8/1	8/1	15/2
Maids Head	10/1	8/1	10/1	8/1	12/1
Sugar Kane	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Genius Mistake	16/1	22/1	18/1	18/1	16/1
Maid Of Killybegs	20/1	20/1	20/1	22/1	18/1
Followeroffashion	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1
Tippy Top	66/1	33/1	40/1	25/1	33/1
A La Louche	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Freedom Bay	150/1	100/1	80/1	66/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Maui Breeze

17.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 14.2

5/4

2nd

Rogue Sensation

10.2

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 6.7

10/3

3rd

Genius Mistake

6.4

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 1.4

22/1

Maids Head

6.3

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

12/1

Tippy Top

4.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

66/1

Blue Dandy

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Sugar Kane

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Maid Of Killybegs

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

22/1

Followeroffashion

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

40/1

A La Louche

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Freedom Bay

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

150/1

Desert Eye

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Maui Breeze	—	82	—
Rogue Sensation	—	92	—
Blue Dandy	—	—	—
Maids Head	—	74	—
Sugar Kane	—	—	—
Genius Mistake	—	79	—
Maid Of Killybegs	—	59	—
Followeroffashion	—	—	—
Tippy Top	—	72	—
A La Louche	—	—	—
Freedom Bay	—	41	—
Desert Eye	—	53	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Genius Mistake	11d ago	Quick return
Maid Of Killybegs	24d ago	Fit
Freedom Bay	25d ago	Fit
Desert Eye	25d ago	Fit
Rogue Sensation	29d ago	Fit
Maids Head	78d ago	Fresh
Tippy Top	100d ago	Long break
Maui Breeze	102d ago	Long break
Blue Dandy	—	—
Sugar Kane	—	—
Followeroffashion	—	—
A La Louche	—	—