Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:58

Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap

Date 2024-10-15

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,972

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (4)	Celtic Warrior Bay J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	136	p	620424	80	88	-	32d	—	—	-2	17.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Record on the AW reads 321 and stable 24% here in past five seasons; respected
8 (10)	Bravo Zulu Chestnut J:Billy Loughnane T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Billy Loughnane T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	135	—	107850	79	85	65	29d	—	—	-7	13	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Much better on the AW than on turf, but is still to prove he stays this far
11 (6)	Up The Jazz Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	128	—	921632	72	89	-	5d	—	—	+7	20.2	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Off the same mark as when just beaten at Ayr last Thursday; one for the shortlist
3 (2)	Lordsbridge Blu Bay J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:S Woods	J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:S Woods	141	—	431	81	85	33	38d	—	—	+13	22.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Unexposed 4yo who won last time and makes his handicap debut; stamina may be an issue
5 (9)	No Surrender Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Ed Dunlop	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Ed Dunlop	136	—	-67764	76	89	66	20d	—	—	0	9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Unplaced in all five handicaps, but not beaten far last time and down another 2lb
9 (7)	African Spirit Bay J:Clifford Lee T:B F Brookhouse	J:Clifford Lee T:B F Brookhouse	135	—	17-200	79	82	59	121d	—	—	+1	9.5	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Much better on the AW than on turf, but still has stamina to prove
12 (8)	Tasmanian Legend Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Alice Haynes	J:Hollie Doyle T:Alice Haynes	126	—	685555	70	85	67	15d	—	—	0	6.7	3.00/1	12/1 8%
3lb lower than for the latest of three Tapeta wins at start of year; each-way claims
4 (5)	Liseo Bay J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	138	tv	574948	78	92	50	13d	—	—	+3	8.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
4lb below last winning mark and ran well in only previous visit here; interesting
6 (12)	Johnny Ringo Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Lucinda Russell	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Lucinda Russell	136	tp	-39296	80	87	60	14d	—	—	+6	12.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Two best efforts have come here, but still has stamina to prove; cheekpieces on
10 (11)	Unplugged Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	132	—	822305	72	87	-	20d	—	—	+6	10.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
0-9 on the AW, though he has made the frame in his last six starts on artificial surfaces
2 (3)	Knockbrex Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	141	—	0340-5	81	88	-	180d	—	—	+6	8.3	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Hasn't built on last year's Pontefract win and returns from another absence; risky
1 (1)	Bear Force One Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	142	p	-00600	82	88	54	24d	—	—	+6	8.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
11lb below last winning mark, but below form lately and still has stamina to prove

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Celtic Warrior	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3	10/3
Bravo Zulu	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3
Up The Jazz	6/1	6/1	6/1	11/2	11/2
Lordsbridge Blu	9/1	17/2	17/2	8/1	17/2
No Surrender	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2	15/2
African Spirit	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2
Tasmanian Legend	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	11/1
Liseo	14/1	14/1	14/1	16/1	12/1
Johnny Ringo	12/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Unplugged	18/1	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Knockbrex	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Bear Force One	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lordsbridge Blu

22.4

OR: 7.8 Form: 12.1 Odds: 2.5

9/1

2nd

Up The Jazz

20.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 11.1 Odds: 3.6

6/1

3rd

Celtic Warrior

17.7

OR: 7.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Bravo Zulu

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Johnny Ringo

12.2

OR: 7.5 Form: 3.1 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Unplugged

10.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 4 Odds: 1.2

20/1

African Spirit

9.5

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

9/1

No Surrender

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Liseo

8.6

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Bear Force One

8.6

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Knockbrex

8.3

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Tasmanian Legend

6.7

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bear Force One	82	88	54
Lordsbridge Blu	81	85	33
Knockbrex	81	88	—
Celtic Warrior	80	88	—
Johnny Ringo	80	87	60
Bravo Zulu	79	85	65
African Spirit	79	82	59
Liseo	78	92	50
No Surrender	76	89	66
Up The Jazz	72	89	—
Unplugged	72	87	—
Tasmanian Legend	70	85	67

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Up The Jazz	5d ago	Quick return
Liseo	13d ago	Quick return
Johnny Ringo	14d ago	Fit
Tasmanian Legend	15d ago	Fit
No Surrender	20d ago	Fit
Unplugged	20d ago	Fit
Bear Force One	24d ago	Fit
Bravo Zulu	29d ago	Fit
Celtic Warrior	32d ago	Fit
Lordsbridge Blu	38d ago	Fit
African Spirit	121d ago	Long break
Knockbrex	180d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m2f42y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.