EBF 'Confined' Novice Stakes (For horses Which Have Run No More Than Three Times) (GBB Race)

Chelmsford (AW)

18:30

Date 2024-11-07

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,234

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (1)	Aegean Prince Chestnut J:Harry Davies T:Charlie Appleby	J:Harry Davies T:Charlie Appleby	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-30	15	0.25/1	Evens 50%
Nephew of a Listed (British) and Group 2 (French) 1m2f scorer; looks a serious contender.
6 (4)	Mersea Island Bay J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	133	b	547	75	85	40	15d	—	—	-3	9.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Soft ground not ideal latest but should be capable of better over 1m2f; blinkers added.
7 (3)	Palazzo Blu Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-12	4.7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Out of a 7f Polytrack 2yo novice winner, but still seems likelier one for other days.
4 (6)	Kentucky River Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:Ollie Sangster	J:Jamie Spencer T:Ollie Sangster	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-7	2.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Half-brother to Melbourne Cup hero Protectionist (also 2yo winner at 1m); shortlisted.
5 (5)	Kokanee Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Ed Dunlop	J:Robert Havlin T:Ed Dunlop	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Half-brother to three 2yo Polytrack winners, albeit all over shorter and none on debut.
3 (2)	Hi Ya Mal Chestnut J:Rob Hornby T:Andrew Balding	J:Rob Hornby T:Andrew Balding	133	—	03	-	71	18	28d	—	—	-1	4.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Third of five at Bath latest (1m2f, heavy); might need even further already.
2 (7)	Ammes Bay J:Adam Farragher T:James Owen	J:Adam Farragher T:James Owen	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Brother and dam have both won over this trip and beyond; yard still firing in the winners.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Aegean Prince	evn	evn	evn	10/11	Evens
Mersea Island	11/2	5/1	11/2	11/2	5/1
Palazzo Blu	5/1	5/1	5/1	9/2	11/2
Kentucky River	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Kokanee	16/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Hi Ya Mal	18/1	16/1	16/1	18/1	16/1
Ammes	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Aegean Prince

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 15

Evens

2nd

Mersea Island

9.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

3rd

Palazzo Blu

4.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.7

11/2

Hi Ya Mal

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Kentucky River

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Kokanee

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Ammes

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mersea Island	75	85	40
Aegean Prince	—	—	—
Palazzo Blu	—	—	—
Kentucky River	—	—	—
Kokanee	—	—	—
Hi Ya Mal	—	71	18
Ammes	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mersea Island	15d ago	Fit
Hi Ya Mal	28d ago	Fit
Aegean Prince	—	—
Palazzo Blu	—	—
Kentucky River	—	—
Kokanee	—	—
Ammes	—	—