Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

14:00

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-11-07

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £4,972

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (5)	Qaseem Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	135	—	221342	82	90	56	23d	—	—	-2	27.6	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Second under a penalty in a Newcastle novice last time; much respected back in a nursery
4 (4)	Sunshine State Bay J:David Egan T:Charlie Johnston	J:David Egan T:Charlie Johnston	131	—	17453	78	88	81	48d	—	—	-1	17.4	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Has run well in two of her three nurseries and is 1-1 on the AW; considered
7 (7)	Hot To Dot Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Gemma Tutty	J:Richard Kingscote T:Gemma Tutty	123	—	162	70	94	55	9d	—	—	+4	19.4	1.25/1	5/1 17%
4lb well in after her neck defeat at Newcastle nine days ago; high on list
2 (2)	Del Ray Bay J:James Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:James Doyle T:Archie Watson	132	—	1032	79	89	61	34d	—	—	+10	20.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Beaten a neck on nursery debut at Newcastle last month, hanging right late on; respected
3 (6)	Scatter Penny Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	132	t	1196	79	91	-	48d	—	—	+8	17.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Won her first two starts and not disgraced in either nursery, but has stamina to prove
6 (3)	Caledonian Bay J:Hayley Turner T:David Simcock	J:Hayley Turner T:David Simcock	129	—	624	76	84	-	43d	—	—	+5	12.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Promise in first two starts on turf, but disappointing last time; makes nursery/AW debut
8 (8)	Harswell Ruby Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Roger Fell	J:Cieren Fallon T:Roger Fell	121	h	3652	68	89	69	17d	—	—	+6	12.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Close second on nursery debut here (6f) last month but still has stamina to prove; hood on
NR (1)	Prince Of India Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Marco Botti	J:Rossa Ryan T:Marco Botti	129	—	494	76	88	52	23d	—	—	—	6.5	—	—
Fourth in two of three starts; open to improvement in a nursery but this looks competitive

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Qaseem	7/4	15/8	7/4	7/4	7/4
Sunshine State	10/3	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3
Hot To Dot	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Del Ray	8/1	8/1	8/1	15/2	17/2
Scatter Penny	8/1	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Caledonian	11/1	12/1	11/1	10/1	12/1
Harswell Ruby	18/1	14/1	16/1	14/1	11/1
Prince Of India	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Qaseem

27.6

OR: 8 Form: 10.5 Odds: 9.1

15/8

2nd

Del Ray

20.2

OR: 7.3 Form: 10.1 Odds: 2.9

17/2

3rd

Hot To Dot

19.4

OR: 5 Form: 10 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Scatter Penny

17.9

OR: 7.3 Form: 8 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Sunshine State

17.4

OR: 7 Form: 5 Odds: 5.4

7/2

Caledonian

12.1

OR: 6.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Harswell Ruby

12.1

OR: 4.5 Form: 5.9 Odds: 1.7

18/1

Prince Of India

6.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Qaseem	82	90	56
Del Ray	79	89	61
Scatter Penny	79	91	—
Sunshine State	78	88	81
Caledonian	76	84	—
Prince Of India	76	88	52
Hot To Dot	70	94	55
Harswell Ruby	68	89	69

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Hot To Dot	9d ago	Quick return
Harswell Ruby	17d ago	Fit
Qaseem	23d ago	Fit
Prince Of India	23d ago	Fit
Del Ray	34d ago	Fit
Caledonian	43d ago	Fit
Sunshine State	48d ago	Fresh
Scatter Penny	48d ago	Fresh