Know Your Limits With BetUK Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

20:15

Know Your Limits With BetUK Handicap

Date 2024-11-18

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 1m 14.68s (slow by 2.48s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Glendown (IRE) David Allan · Tim Easterby	7/1	Won
2nd	First Company (IRE) Mason Paetel · Mark Loughnane	33/1	.5
3rd	Ormolulu (IRE) Daniel Muscutt · Gemma Tutty	5/1	.75
4th	HK Fourteen (IRE) Jack Doughty · Tony Carroll	13/8F	2.75
5th	Arc Shadowfax (GB) Elle-May Croot · Ivan Furtado	22/1	.75
6th	Buraback (IRE) Joanna Mason · Derek Shaw	22/1	1.25
7th	War Memorial (GB) Andrew Elliott · Ivan Furtado	22/1	1
8th	Arlecchino's Gift (GB) Tyler Heard · Mark Usher	20/1	.5
9th	Good Karma (GB) Tom Eaves · James Owen	9/4	2.25
10th	Posh Maisie (IRE) Cam Hardie · Colin Teague	200/1	19

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (1)	HK Fourteen Chestnut J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	135	—	000111	65	79	65	10d	—	—	+5	35.1	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Quick hat-trick since sprinting; impressive latest; up 6lb; probably still well treated
9 (4)	Good Karma Grey J:Tom Eaves T:James Owen	J:Tom Eaves T:James Owen	132	b	590965	62	74	57	14d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-13	9.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Won 7f maiden on Tapeta in 2022; key remains missing for this yard despite weights drop
7 (3)	Ormolulu Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Gemma Tutty	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Gemma Tutty	134	—	655555	64	76	66	25d	—	—	-10	9.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Won C&D maiden and 6f turf handicap in 2023; way down weights since; new yard
12 (2)	Glendown Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	130	tp	900549	60	77	59	13d	—	—	-4	5.2	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Probably acts on Tapeta; minor turf form of late; likely eligible for lower grade soon
10 (6)	Buraback Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	130	—	540950	60	76	62	2d	—	—	-1	3.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Four sprint wins this year, all in cheekpieces; below best with no headgear of late
6 (10)	War Memorial Bay J:Andrew Elliott T:Ivan Furtado	J:Andrew Elliott T:Ivan Furtado	135	—	-54372	65	77	-	83d	—	—	+7	11.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Maiden; went close in two most recent 7f handicaps; sold 7,500gns; first AW run; new yard
5 (5)	Arlecchino's Gift Bay J:Tyler Heard T:Mark Usher	J:Tyler Heard T:Mark Usher	135	—	179213	65	77	65	30d	—	—	+13	17.5	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Four 6f wins at Wolverhampton, latest in September; not as effective on this course so far
1 (11)	First Company Bay J:Mason Paetel(7) T:Mark Loughnane	J:Mason Paetel(7) T:Mark Loughnane	135	—	558521	65	79	65	12d	—	—	+15	18.1	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Back in good heart with Kempton win (6f); this mark is not beyond him and has C&D form
2 (7)	Arc Shadowfax Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	135	tp	69-086	65	71	46	16d	—	—	+2	4.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Won 6f turf maiden as 2yo; not yet looked well treated in handicaps and has work to do
3 (12)	Delagate This Lord Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell	J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell	135	—	604230	65	66	46	11d	—	—	+7	8.9	10.00/1	40/1 2%
All 9 wins on turf; 0-9 on AW and last of 10 at Newcastle recently; first course run
11 (9)	Posh Maisie Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Colin Teague	J:Cam Hardie T:Colin Teague	130	t	400608	60	75	34	82d	—	—	+2	2.7	31.25/1	125/1 1%
AW promise in early 2024; mostly modest since; well back for new yard latest; had wind op
NR (8)	Wee Fat Mac Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Iain Jardine	J:NON-RUNNER T:Iain Jardine	133	t	245324	63	83	-	35d	—	—	—	8.3	—	—
Won four times in 2023; winless since but many places; 0-4 on this track

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
HK Fourteen	13/8	13/8	13/8
Good Karma	11/4	11/4	11/4
Ormolulu	7/2	10/3	7/2
Glendown	9/1	9/1	9/1
Buraback	20/1	16/1	18/1
War Memorial	22/1	25/1	22/1
Arlecchino's Gift	22/1	20/1	22/1
First Company	33/1	25/1	28/1
Arc Shadowfax	40/1	50/1	40/1
Delagate This Lord	40/1	40/1	40/1
Posh Maisie	125/1	125/1	125/1
Wee Fat Mac	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

HK Fourteen

35.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 22 Odds: 9.4

13/8

2nd

First Company

18.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 13.5 Odds: 0.9

33/1

3rd

Arlecchino's Gift

17.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 12.5 Odds: 1.2

22/1

War Memorial

11.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Good Karma

9.7

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

11/4

Ormolulu

9.2

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Delagate This Lord

8.9

OR: 3.8 Form: 4.6 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Wee Fat Mac

8.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 5 Odds: 0

—

Glendown

5.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Arc Shadowfax

4.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Buraback

3.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Posh Maisie

2.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

125/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
HK Fourteen	65	79	65
War Memorial	65	77	—
Arlecchino's Gift	65	77	65
First Company	65	79	65
Arc Shadowfax	65	71	46
Delagate This Lord	65	66	46
Ormolulu	64	76	66
Wee Fat Mac	63	83	—
Good Karma	62	74	57
Glendown	60	77	59
Buraback	60	76	62
Posh Maisie	60	75	34

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Buraback	2d ago	Quick return
HK Fourteen	10d ago	Quick return
Delagate This Lord	11d ago	Quick return
First Company	12d ago	Quick return
Glendown	13d ago	Quick return
Good Karma	14d ago	Fit
Arc Shadowfax	16d ago	Fit
Ormolulu	25d ago	Fit
Arlecchino's Gift	30d ago	Fit
Wee Fat Mac	35d ago	Fit
Posh Maisie	82d ago	Fresh
War Memorial	83d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 6f16y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.