Know Your Limits With BetMGM Novice Stakes (GBB Race) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:45

Know Your Limits With BetMGM Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Date 2024-11-18

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,942

Winning Time 1m 41.78s (slow by 4.08s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Twisting Physics (GB) Hector Crouch · Paul & Oliver Cole	5/2	Won
2nd	Groovy Baby (GB) Hayley Turner · Andrew Balding	9/2	1
3rd	Classic Encounter (IRE) Grace McEntee · George Boughey	15/8F	.75
4th	Running Spirit (IRE) Kieran Shoemark · John & Thady Gosden	9/4	0.3
5th	Endless Whisper (GB) Joanna Mason · Michael & David Easterby	100/1	0.3
6th	Toby Tops (GB) Morgan Cole · Dylan Cunha	66/1	3.75
7th	Lightningboltzoom (GB) Alistair Rawlinson · Paul Attwater	100/1	1.25
8th	Maguire (GB) Mikkel Mortensen · Scott Dixon	250/1	5
9th	Melsmay (GB) Marco Ghiani · Ivan Furtado	300/1	0.3
10th	Jolie Coeur Allen (FR) Paul Mulrennan · Ben Haslam	150/1	44

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (2)	Running Spirit Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	128	—	42	-	87	65	103d	—	—	-14	13.4	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Chased home a good horse of Godolphin's at Kempton last time; this looks easier
5 (3)	Twisting Physics Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Hector Crouch T:Paul & Oliver Cole	133	—	4	-	70	-	95d	—	—	-18	8	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Gelded since performing below expectations on his Salisbury debut
1 (7)	Classic Encounter Bay J:Grace McEntee(3) T:George Boughey	J:Grace McEntee(3) T:George Boughey	133	p	622-55	78	89	71	47d	—	—	-10	14.3	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Form claims back in a novice, for all that others might be open to greater improvement
9 (4)	Groovy Baby Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Andrew Balding	J:Hayley Turner T:Andrew Balding	128	h	025322	72	85	43	25d	—	—	+4	21.5	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Seven-race maiden who isn't improving despite finishing runner-up the last twice
4 (10)	Toby Tops Bay J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Dylan Cunha	J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Dylan Cunha	133	—	6	-	9	-	25d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Sold again for 5,500gns this July; finished tailed off on soft ground at Nottingham
6 (6)	Endless Whisper Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	130	—	4	-	70	51	53d	—	—	-1	0.2	31.25/1	125/1 1%
Questionable what she achieved when a remote fourth over C&D in September
2 (5)	Lightningboltzoom Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Paul Attwater	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Paul Attwater	133	—	43	-	67	47	68d	—	—	+2	3.3	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Low level form in both his runs, with only four running last time at Lingfield (1m)
7 (9)	Jolie Coeur Allen Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	130	h	4	-	51	-	10d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Maiden over jumps and last of four in a 1m AW novice only ten days ago
3 (8)	Maguire Bay J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	133	—	43	-	62	12	14d	—	—	+2	3.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Having his third quick run after defeats by 28l and 12l; will need handicaps
8 (1)	Melsmay Chestnut J:Marco Ghiani T:Ivan Furtado	J:Marco Ghiani T:Ivan Furtado	130	—	7	-	-	-	28d	—	—	0	0.2	75.00/1	300/1 0%
Last month's belated debut was a heavy defeat over C&D at odds of 150-1

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Running Spirit	9/4	9/4	2/1	2/1	85/40
Twisting Physics	2/1	9/4	2/1	9/4	85/40
Classic Encounter	11/4	11/4	11/4	5/2	3/1
Groovy Baby	4/1	7/2	4/1	7/2	4/1
Toby Tops	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Endless Whisper	125/1	100/1	125/1	125/1	100/1
Lightningboltzoom	150/1	100/1	125/1	125/1	125/1
Jolie Coeur Allen	150/1	125/1	150/1	150/1	125/1
Maguire	200/1	200/1	200/1	200/1	200/1
Melsmay	300/1	250/1	250/1	250/1	250/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Groovy Baby

21.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 11 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

Classic Encounter

14.3

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

3/1

3rd

Running Spirit

13.4

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 8.4

9/4

Twisting Physics

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8

9/4

Lightningboltzoom

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.3

150/1

Maguire

3.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Toby Tops

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Endless Whisper

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

125/1

Jolie Coeur Allen

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Melsmay

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

300/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Classic Encounter	78	89	71
Groovy Baby	72	85	43
Running Spirit	—	87	65
Twisting Physics	—	70	—
Toby Tops	—	9	—
Endless Whisper	—	70	51
Lightningboltzoom	—	67	47
Jolie Coeur Allen	—	51	—
Maguire	—	62	12
Melsmay	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Jolie Coeur Allen	10d ago	Quick return
Maguire	14d ago	Fit
Groovy Baby	25d ago	Fit
Toby Tops	25d ago	Fit
Melsmay	28d ago	Fit
Classic Encounter	47d ago	Fresh
Endless Whisper	53d ago	Fresh
Lightningboltzoom	68d ago	Fresh
Twisting Physics	95d ago	Long break
Running Spirit	103d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.