Always Gamble Responsibly With BetUK Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

17:30

Always Gamble Responsibly With BetUK Handicap

Date 2024-11-19

Distance 1m3f23y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
11 (9)	Raja Raja Bay J:Rob Hornby T:David Simcock	J:Rob Hornby T:David Simcock	130	—	66594	73	87	-	54d	—	—	-13	14.2	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Well beaten in two handicaps but feasible excuses and it's still early days
2 (3)	Molinari Grey J:David Nolan T:Martin Todhunter	J:David Nolan T:Martin Todhunter	135	—	872311	74	87	54	11d	—	—	+14	31	1.00/1	4/1 20%
First run here but has won at Newcastle the last twice and rated higher in the past
12 (8)	Kinetic Bay J:Hector Crouch T:James Owen	J:Hector Crouch T:James Owen	130	p	141550	73	83	51	6d	—	—	-1	12.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Had a good year but the handicapper is looking in charge
4 (6)	Timetobenice Bay J:Harry Davies T:Marco Botti	J:Harry Davies T:Marco Botti	132	—	2-4394	75	83	39	8d	—	—	+1	13.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Beaten under 2l over 9.4f at Wolverhampton despite a troubled run
10 (1)	Hebridean Nomad Bay J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	131	—	41-	74	86	-	419d	—	—	+10	18.5	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Absent since September of last year when nosing home in a 1m novice at Kempton
1 (2)	Sol Cayo Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Fionn McSharry	J:Sean Kirrane T:Fionn McSharry	136	—	/0-602	75	85	53	47d	—	—	+2	8	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Kept on well over Newcastle's stiff 1m2f and this longer trip could be a positive
3 (12)	Orange N Blue Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	135	—	45-433	74	85	-	293d	—	—	+3	7.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Solid form in three 1m4f handicaps for Jane Chapple-Hyam; bought for 13,000gns
7 (11)	Highwaygrey Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	131	tp	205375	70	83	42	18d	—	—	+3	7.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Often misses the break and ran moderately in this new headgear combination last time
8 (4)	It's A Love Thing Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Sam England	J:Joe Fanning T:Sam England	131	t	225089	70	82	69	21d	—	—	+3	7.2	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Has won here but has looked very cold in three runs after wind surgery
9 (10)	Unplugged Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	131	—	223059	70	86	15	35d	—	—	+2	8.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Triple turf winner who is effective on the AW but doesn't arrive here in the best of form
6 (5)	Sense Of Worth Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Seb Spencer	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Seb Spencer	131	—	322276	70	84	46	191d	—	—	+8	10.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Back from a break; dual Dundalk winner who is 1-1 here; respected
NR (7)	Sgian Dubh Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Seamus Mullins	J:Dougie Costello T:Seamus Mullins	132	—	833-	71	82	-	—	—	—	—	10.4	—	—
Promise in maidens; off since a heavy defeat on his hurdling debut in July 2023

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Raja Raja	9/4	15/8	2/1	2/1	2/1
Molinari	7/2	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Kinetic	9/2	5/1	5/1	11/2	9/2
Timetobenice	5/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	5/1
Hebridean Nomad	9/1	10/1	9/1	9/1	15/2
Sol Cayo	14/1	16/1	11/1	16/1	14/1
Orange N Blue	16/1	20/1	18/1	20/1	18/1
Highwaygrey	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
It's A Love Thing	25/1	22/1	16/1	22/1	22/1
Unplugged	40/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Sense Of Worth	28/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	25/1
Sgian Dubh	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Molinari

OR: 6 Form: 20 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

Hebridean Nomad

18.5

OR: 6 Form: 10 Odds: 2.5

10/1

3rd

Raja Raja

14.2

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

9/4

Timetobenice

13.4

OR: 6.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Kinetic

12.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 3 Odds: 4

11/2

Sense Of Worth

10.8

OR: 5 Form: 5 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Sgian Dubh

10.4

OR: 5.3 Form: 5.1 Odds: 0

—

Unplugged

8.8

OR: 5 Form: 1.9 Odds: 1.9

40/1

Sol Cayo

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Highwaygrey

7.9

OR: 5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Orange N Blue

7.2

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

It's A Love Thing

7.2

OR: 5 Form: 1 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Timetobenice	75	83	39
Sol Cayo	75	85	53
Molinari	74	87	54
Hebridean Nomad	74	86	—
Orange N Blue	74	85	—
Raja Raja	73	87	—
Kinetic	73	83	51
Sgian Dubh	71	82	—
Highwaygrey	70	83	42
It's A Love Thing	70	82	69
Unplugged	70	86	15
Sense Of Worth	70	84	46

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Kinetic	6d ago	Quick return
Timetobenice	8d ago	Quick return
Molinari	11d ago	Quick return
Highwaygrey	18d ago	Fit
It's A Love Thing	21d ago	Fit
Unplugged	35d ago	Fit
Sol Cayo	47d ago	Fresh
Raja Raja	54d ago	Fresh
Sense Of Worth	191d ago	Long break
Orange N Blue	293d ago	Long break
Hebridean Nomad	419d ago	Long break
Sgian Dubh	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m3f23y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.