Safer Gambling Tools At BetMGM Handicap (Div I) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:30

Safer Gambling Tools At BetMGM Handicap (Div I)

Date 2024-11-19

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,234

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (12)	Beyond Words Grey J:Rossa Ryan T:James Tate	J:Rossa Ryan T:James Tate	138	—	64-517	70	79	69	64d	—	—	-14	13.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Easy win over C&D on h'cap debut in August; creditable midfield effort latest; unexposed
6 (8)	Dream Pirate Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:T J Kent	J:Marco Ghiani T:T J Kent	135	b	460613	67	77	62	13d	—	—	+4	18.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
In good form on his preferred slow turf in recent weeks; more to prove on AW
4 (6)	Triggerman Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	136	p	623412	70	78	49	19d	—	—	+10	22.5	1.63/1	13/2 13%
C&D win in September was followed by a near miss 19 days ago; should go well again
7 (11)	Stratocracy Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Frost	J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Frost	135	p	651451	69	78	48	19d	—	—	+10	20.6	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Did well to reel in Triggerman here 19 days ago; should make another bold bid
2 (3)	Harlem Nights Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	137	—	585893	69	81	69	21d	—	—	+2	10	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Latest Newcastle 3rd (1m2f; well backed) was more encouraging; not ruled out back in trip
12 (10)	Jersey Rocs Bay J:Jason Watson T:Charles Hills	J:Jason Watson T:Charles Hills	129	b	-80901	63	79	72	12d	—	—	+6	15.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Better for blinkers when winning over C&D 12 days ago; 3lb higher but not fully exposed
5 (1)	Jazzy Angel Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Harry Eustace	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Harry Eustace	135	p	165201	69	81	66	26d	—	—	+12	19.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
C&D win last winter; 7f win at Wolverhampton latest; 2lb higher in a more demanding race
3 (7)	Style Of Life Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Harriet Bethell	J:Joe Fanning T:Harriet Bethell	137	t	251228	69	78	61	15d	—	—	+8	15.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Good run of form came to an end two weeks ago (got upset beforehand); type to bounce back
10 (9)	Tasmanian Legend Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	131	—	555504	65	83	65	13d	—	—	0	5.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Slipped back to good mark and likely to take advantage soon, perhaps when down to Class 6
11 (4)	Heretic Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	130	t	6/1-77	62	77	67	12d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+7	11.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
His two runs for new yard after a long absence have been encouraging; check betting
9 (2)	Al Suil Eile Grey J:Thomas Greatrex T:Shaun Harris	J:Thomas Greatrex T:Shaun Harris	132	—	-58115	64	77	60	252d	—	—	+13	16.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Multiple course winner but likely best watched back from an eight-month break
8 (5)	Jack Daniel Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	133	—	/197-9	65	81	-	101d	—	—	+2	4.3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Starts out for new yard on a fair mark but far from solid; gelded since last seen

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Beyond Words	11/4	2/1	15/8	2/1	2/1
Dream Pirate	5/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1
Triggerman	6/1	13/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Stratocracy	7/1	17/2	8/1	8/1	7/1
Harlem Nights	9/1	11/1	10/1	11/1	11/1
Jersey Rocs	9/1	17/2	8/1	17/2	17/2
Jazzy Angel	10/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Style Of Life	11/1	12/1	11/1	12/1	11/1
Tasmanian Legend	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Heretic	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	20/1
Al Suil Eile	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1
Jack Daniel	50/1	40/1	50/1	50/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Triggerman

22.5

OR: 5 Form: 13.9 Odds: 3.6

13/2

2nd

Stratocracy

20.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 13 Odds: 2.9

17/2

3rd

Jazzy Angel

19.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 12.5 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Dream Pirate

18.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 10 Odds: 4

11/2

Al Suil Eile

16.6

OR: 3.5 Form: 12 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Jersey Rocs

15.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Style Of Life

15.9

OR: 4.8 Form: 9 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Beyond Words

13.4

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

11/4

Heretic

11.1

OR: 3 Form: 7 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Harlem Nights

OR: 4.8 Form: 3 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Tasmanian Legend

5.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Jack Daniel

4.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Beyond Words	70	79	69
Triggerman	70	78	49
Stratocracy	69	78	48
Harlem Nights	69	81	69
Jazzy Angel	69	81	66
Style Of Life	69	78	61
Dream Pirate	67	77	62
Tasmanian Legend	65	83	65
Jack Daniel	65	81	—
Al Suil Eile	64	77	60
Jersey Rocs	63	79	72
Heretic	62	77	67

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Jersey Rocs	12d ago	Quick return
Heretic	12d ago	Quick return
Dream Pirate	13d ago	Quick return
Tasmanian Legend	13d ago	Quick return
Style Of Life	15d ago	Fit
Triggerman	19d ago	Fit
Stratocracy	19d ago	Fit
Harlem Nights	21d ago	Fit
Jazzy Angel	26d ago	Fit
Beyond Words	64d ago	Fresh
Jack Daniel	101d ago	Long break
Al Suil Eile	252d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.