Safer Gambling Tools At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:15

Safer Gambling Tools At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-11-22

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 1m 27.41s (slow by 3.61s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Drafted (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Danny Brooke	11/2	Won
2nd	The Gay Blade (GB) David Nolan · Iain Jardine	6/1	.5
3rd	Mr Trick (IRE) Billy Loughnane · Ian Williams	17/2	.5
4th	Concert Boy (IRE) Sam James · Katie Scott	10/1	0.05
5th	Rebecca's Girl (IRE) Jason Hart · Gary Rutherford	7/1	.75
6th	Odd Socks Havana (GB) Kaiya Fraser · Rebecca Menzies	25/1	.75
7th	Pop Favorite (GB) Luke Morris · Scott Dixon	10/1	1.5
8th	Muddy Lynn (GB) Alex Jary · Seb Spencer	9/2F	.5
9th	Keep Me Stable (IRE) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	5/1	1.75
10th	Athollblair Boy (IRE) Faye McManoman · Nigel Tinkler	28/1	4
11th	Mumcat (GB) Joanna Mason · Jacqueline Coward	33/1	.5
12th	Eyeeye (GB) Andrew Mullen · Iain Jardine	28/1	.75

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (1)	Keep Me Stable Bay J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	133	—	216492	58	76	60	14d	—	—	-3	14	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Three C&D wins, the most recent in September; close second back here this month
8 (8)	Muddy Lynn Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Seb Spencer	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Seb Spencer	128	—	80-551	53	73	52	24d	—	—	-10	5.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Steadily back to form in a light 2024 campaign, winning over 6f here most recently
5 (5)	Drafted Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Danny Brooke	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Danny Brooke	132	p	608785	57	76	43	41d	—	—	-7	5.4	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Ran encouragingly back on AW last time; won off 9lb higher two years ago; interesting
12 (3)	Mr Trick Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Ian Williams	J:Billy Loughnane T:Ian Williams	125	p	859563	50	76	54	6d	—	—	-6	6.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
May cope with the drop back to 7f at this stiff venue; 4lb below last winning mark
2 (10)	The Gay Blade Bay J:David Nolan T:Iain Jardine	J:David Nolan T:Iain Jardine	133	h	134150	58	75	42	31d	—	—	0	10.7	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Four wins this year; hindered by awkward start when favourite here most recently
10 (7)	Concert Boy Bay J:Sam James T:Katie Scott	J:Sam James T:Katie Scott	127	b	462362	52	73	48	15d	—	—	+1	11.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Recent C&D form includes a couple of good seconds; still has a poor strike-rate
6 (12)	Rebecca's Girl Bay J:Jason Hart T:Gary Rutherford	J:Jason Hart T:Gary Rutherford	130	b	212390	55	74	-	16d	—	—	0	8.6	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Consistent record for new yard until form dipped the last twice
11 (2)	Pop Favorite Bay J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	125	—	551672	50	73	57	6d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+2	10.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Ran respectably here last Saturday; drop back to 7f is the negative (best over 1m)
9 (9)	Mumcat Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	128	—	833341	53	71	63	213d	—	—	+10	15.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Absent since Wolverhampton win in April; has never won when fresh
4 (4)	Odd Socks Havana Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	133	t	127287	58	74	64	25d	—	—	+3	6.6	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Five course wins; achieved little here (back from a break) last month
7 (6)	Eyeeye Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	129	p	704507	54	74	43	14d	—	—	-3	2.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
4yo maiden who recorded a poor RPR here two weeks ago on AW/stable debut
1 (11)	Athollblair Boy Chestnut J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	135	—	495759	60	71	31	14d	—	—	0	3.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Multiple course winner but failed to beat a rival back here last time

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Keep Me Stable	9/2	5/1	9/2	9/2	9/2
Muddy Lynn	11/2	9/2	11/2	9/2	4/1
Drafted	7/1	6/1	6/1	11/2	13/2
Mr Trick	6/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
The Gay Blade	8/1	7/1	15/2	7/1	15/2
Concert Boy	8/1	8/1	15/2	8/1	15/2
Rebecca's Girl	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	9/1
Pop Favorite	9/1	11/1	10/1	11/1	9/1
Mumcat	18/1	18/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
Odd Socks Havana	28/1	22/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Eyeeye	22/1	25/1	22/1	25/1	20/1
Athollblair Boy	40/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mumcat

15.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 13 Odds: 1.4

18/1

2nd

Keep Me Stable

OR: 2 Form: 7 Odds: 5

5/1

3rd

Concert Boy

11.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 8 Odds: 2.9

8/1

The Gay Blade

10.7

OR: 2 Form: 5.6 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Pop Favorite

10.2

OR: 0 Form: 8 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Rebecca's Girl

8.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Mr Trick

6.6

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Odd Socks Havana

6.6

OR: 2 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Drafted

5.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Muddy Lynn

5.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Athollblair Boy

3.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

40/1

Eyeeye

2.6

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Athollblair Boy	60	71	31
Keep Me Stable	58	76	60
The Gay Blade	58	75	42
Odd Socks Havana	58	74	64
Drafted	57	76	43
Rebecca's Girl	55	74	—
Eyeeye	54	74	43
Muddy Lynn	53	73	52
Mumcat	53	71	63
Concert Boy	52	73	48
Mr Trick	50	76	54
Pop Favorite	50	73	57

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mr Trick	6d ago	Quick return
Pop Favorite	6d ago	Quick return
Keep Me Stable	14d ago	Fit
Eyeeye	14d ago	Fit
Athollblair Boy	14d ago	Fit
Concert Boy	15d ago	Fit
Rebecca's Girl	16d ago	Fit
Muddy Lynn	24d ago	Fit
Odd Socks Havana	25d ago	Fit
The Gay Blade	31d ago	Fit
Drafted	41d ago	Fit
Mumcat	213d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.