£30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:50

£30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap

Date 2024-12-06

Distance 5f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (10)	Mondammej Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	131	—	000071	71	93	75	13d	—	—	+3	20.3	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Ended losing run over C&D 13 days ago (after a wind op); still well treated; strong claims
11 (5)	Buzz Box Bay J:David Nolan T:Bryan Smart	J:David Nolan T:Bryan Smart	130	—	-12453	70	86	71	25d	—	—	+1	15.9	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Not progressed as might have been expected but still early days and conditions suit
5 (12)	The Coffee Pod Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	134	—	805424	74	89	60	18d	—	—	-2	13.9	1.25/1	5/1 17%
On a fair mark and he's been in fair form of late, including on Tapeta latest; contender
9 (11)	Moyola Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Lucinda Russell	J:Clifford Lee T:Lucinda Russell	130	t	135053	70	85	63	38d	—	—	-1	12.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
C&D winner; a well-run race at this trip is a must; each-way shout
1 (3)	Parisiac Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	135	p	582841	75	87	-	30d	—	—	+12	20.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Impressed at Nottingham last time but up 6lb and AW record is less convincing
2 (6)	Sweet Carolina Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	135	—	14	75	84	61	223d	—	—	+7	15.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Unexposed but her opening mark looks based on potential rather than racecourse achievement
8 (1)	Ganesha Bay J:Sam James T:Phillip Makin	J:Sam James T:Phillip Makin	130	h	559064	70	83	63	39d	—	—	0	6.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
C&D winner off 14lb higher as a 2yo; up and down this year and others more reliable
12 (7)	Water Of Leith Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	129	—	193153	69	89	61	32d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	+9	15.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Regularly has traffic issues but he's talented and this should be run to suit; contender
4 (4)	Strong Johnson Bay J:Luke Morris T:Paul Midgley	J:Luke Morris T:Paul Midgley	134	—	743185	74	91	76	15d	—	—	+8	13.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
C&D win last month but not in same form since (excuses penultimate start); others safer
10 (8)	Zuffolo Bay J:William Pyle(3) T:Michael Dods	J:William Pyle(3) T:Michael Dods	130	b	144126	70	88	66	25d	—	—	+11	14.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Chance on this year's best but he needs to bounce back from a low-key C&D run last month
3 (9)	Cast No Shadow Bay J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	135	p	177180	75	87	74	45d	—	—	+9	12.2	6.25/1	25/1 4%
C&D winner in June on most recent Class 5 run; other pace to deal with today
7 (2)	Piloto Pardo Bay J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	130	—	1-0906	70	79	30	31d	—	—	+11	12.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Struggling in 2024 and yet to shine for new yard; others have much stronger claims

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Mondammej	7/2	4/1	4/1	4/1	7/2
Buzz Box	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	5/1
The Coffee Pod	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	9/2
Moyola	5/1	11/2	5/1	5/1	9/2
Parisiac	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	11/1
Sweet Carolina	9/1	12/1	11/1	11/1	8/1
Ganesha	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Water Of Leith	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Strong Johnson	16/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Zuffolo	25/1	22/1	22/1	20/1	20/1
Cast No Shadow	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1	20/1
Piloto Pardo	100/1	80/1	100/1	66/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mondammej

20.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 10 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

Parisiac

20.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.4

11/1

3rd

Buzz Box

15.9

OR: 5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Sweet Carolina

15.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 7 Odds: 2.4

12/1

Water Of Leith

15.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 8.9 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Zuffolo

14.5

OR: 5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1

25/1

The Coffee Pod

13.9

OR: 6 Form: 3.5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Strong Johnson

13.5

OR: 6 Form: 5.9 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Moyola

12.6

OR: 5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 4

11/2

Piloto Pardo

12.3

OR: 5 Form: 7 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Cast No Shadow

12.2

OR: 6.3 Form: 5 Odds: 1

25/1

Ganesha

6.9

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Parisiac	75	87	—
Sweet Carolina	75	84	61
Cast No Shadow	75	87	74
The Coffee Pod	74	89	60
Strong Johnson	74	91	76
Mondammej	71	93	75
Buzz Box	70	86	71
Moyola	70	85	63
Ganesha	70	83	63
Zuffolo	70	88	66
Piloto Pardo	70	79	30
Water Of Leith	69	89	61

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mondammej	13d ago	Quick return
Strong Johnson	15d ago	Fit
The Coffee Pod	18d ago	Fit
Buzz Box	25d ago	Fit
Zuffolo	25d ago	Fit
Parisiac	30d ago	Fit
Piloto Pardo	31d ago	Fit
Water Of Leith	32d ago	Fit
Moyola	38d ago	Fit
Ganesha	39d ago	Fit
Cast No Shadow	45d ago	Fit
Sweet Carolina	223d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.