BetMGM: It's Showtime Irish EBF Novice Stakes (Run No More Than Three Times) (GBB) (Div I)

Newcastle (AW)

16:20

Date 2024-12-06

Distance 6f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,211

Winning Time 1m 13.75s (slow by 3.35s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Rogue Allegiance (IRE) David Nolan · David O'Meara	6/5F	Won
2nd	Psychodrama (IRE) Billy Garritty · Richard Fahey	5/1	6
3rd	Renewable Dream (GB) Gianluca Sanna · Seb Spencer	25/1	.5
4th	Kiniro (GB) Trevor Whelan · Harry Charlton	20/1	0.05
5th	Volendam (GB) Oisin McSweeney · Julie Camacho	25/1	0.3
6th	Thunder Earthlight (GB) Sam James · K R Burke	5/2	3.75
7th	Crackinthunder (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	125/1	4
8th	King At The Races (IRE) Shane Gray · Gemma Tutty	15/2	2.75
9th	Diamond Dude (IRE) Dale Swift · Tracy Waggott	200/1	8

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (1)	Rogue Allegiance Bay J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-21	9.4	0.41/1	13/8 38%
190,000gns (breeze-up) 2yo; Kodiac half-brother to a 6f-8.6f winner; interesting
7 (6)	Thunder Earthlight Bay J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	133	—	4	-	78	37	13d	—	—	-18	8	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Showed promise over C&D two weeks ago; respected with progress on the cards
9 (2)	Psychodrama Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	128	—	54	-	77	-	79d	—	—	-13	5.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Has shown ability in two turf races; half-sister to an AW winner; major player
3 (8)	King At The Races Bay J:Shane Gray T:Gemma Tutty	J:Shane Gray T:Gemma Tutty	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-8	3.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
20,000gns (breeze-up) 2yo; by Fastnet Rock out of half-sister to two G1 winners
4 (7)	Kiniro Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Charlton	J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Charlton	133	—	9	-	49	10	18d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Friendless in the betting at Wolverhampton and ran accordingly
10 (10)	Volendam Bay J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Julie Camacho	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
£5,000 yearling; by Muhaarar out of an AW/turf winner; market instructive
5 (9)	Renewable Dream b/br J:Gianluca Sanna(5) T:Seb Spencer	J:Gianluca Sanna(5) T:Seb Spencer	133	—	6	-	64	40	13d	—	—	-3	1.1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Only sixth of seven in C&D maiden 13 days ago; needs improvement
1 (4)	Crackinthunder Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	133	h	9	-	23	-	25d	—	—	-1	0.4	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Trailed home last of nine in 5f event here 25 days ago
2 (5)	Diamond Dude Bay J:Dale Swift T:Tracy Waggott	J:Dale Swift T:Tracy Waggott	133	—	8	-	-	-	13d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Long way behind Thunder Earthlight here two weeks ago
NR (3)	Chin Chin Ginny Chestnut J:NON-RUNNER T:Katie Scott	J:NON-RUNNER T:Katie Scott	128	—	7	-	-	-	13d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Last of seven in C&D maiden 13 days ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Rogue Allegiance	13/8	13/8	13/8	13/8	13/8
Thunder Earthlight	5/2	9/4	9/4	9/4	2/1
Psychodrama	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
King At The Races	15/2	15/2	15/2	7/1	15/2
Kiniro	20/1	18/1	20/1	16/1	20/1
Volendam	22/1	22/1	22/1	20/1	20/1
Renewable Dream	20/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	22/1
Crackinthunder	150/1	100/1	100/1	50/1	125/1
Diamond Dude	250/1	150/1	150/1	80/1	150/1
Chin Chin Ginny	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Rogue Allegiance

9.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 9.4

13/8

2nd

Thunder Earthlight

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8

5/2

3rd

Psychodrama

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.4

4/1

King At The Races

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Kiniro

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Volendam

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Renewable Dream

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Crackinthunder

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

150/1

Diamond Dude

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250/1

Chin Chin Ginny

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rogue Allegiance	—	—	—
Thunder Earthlight	—	78	37
Psychodrama	—	77	—
King At The Races	—	—	—
Kiniro	—	49	10
Volendam	—	—	—
Renewable Dream	—	64	40
Crackinthunder	—	23	—
Diamond Dude	—	—	—
Chin Chin Ginny	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Thunder Earthlight	13d ago	Quick return
Renewable Dream	13d ago	Quick return
Diamond Dude	13d ago	Quick return
Chin Chin Ginny	13d ago	Quick return
Kiniro	18d ago	Fit
Crackinthunder	25d ago	Fit
Psychodrama	79d ago	Fresh
Rogue Allegiance	—	—
King At The Races	—	—
Volendam	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.