Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:30

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap

Date 2024-12-09

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (12)	Rebecca's Girl Bay J:Jason Hart T:Gary Rutherford	J:Jason Hart T:Gary Rutherford	139	b	239051	59	69	38	3d	—	—	-16	27	0.30/1	6/5 45%
Made all for clearcut 7f course win on Friday and might have untapped potential over 1m
5 (8)	Volenti Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Ben Haslam	J:Andrew Mullen T:Ben Haslam	131	—	-93212	51	72	58	31d	—	—	-1	22.9	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Fended off a dual subseuent winner when scoring over C&D in October; good chance
6 (10)	Jujubella Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Lucinda Russell	J:Oisin Orr T:Lucinda Russell	131	—	70-904	52	63	37	55d	—	—	-7	3.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Low-mileage 3yo; made encouraging stable debut over C&D in October; interesting
3 (2)	Wheres The Crumpet Chestnut J:David Nolan T:David Thompson	J:David Nolan T:David Thompson	133	p	540125	53	67	61	17d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+4	11.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Below form after racing too freely last time but earlier C&D efforts make her a player
2 (11)	Big Narstie b/br J:Luke Morris T:Michael Appleby	J:Luke Morris T:Michael Appleby	135	tv	507089	55	66	51	37d	—	—	-3	2.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Dual Tapeta winner in March but out of form since returning from a break in September
4 (5)	Yaahobby Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	131	tp	164335	51	68	47	3d	—	—	0	5.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Dual 7f course winner this autumn; a possible if stamina holds out on first attempt at 1m
12 (7)	Likleman Bay J:James Sullivan T:Simon West	J:James Sullivan T:Simon West	127	—	173656	48	67	19	23d	—	—	-2	2	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Won on heavy turf in September but has not used that success as a springboard
9 (6)	Pop Favorite Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	129	—	516727	49	69	53	17d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+3	6.4	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Six-time C&D winner, most recently off 3lb lower in October; not very reliable, though
11 (4)	Masham Moor Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Simon West	J:Tom Eaves T:Simon West	127	—	312550	47	68	65	32d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+2	4.2	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Might have needed last month's reappearance run and is now 2lb below last winning mark
8 (9)	Ring Fenced Bay J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Micky Hammond	J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Micky Hammond	131	—	396847	51	68	45	39d	—	—	-1	0.6	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Returned from break with low-key run in October and remains winless since January 2023
10 (3)	Born To Charm Bay J:Shane Gray T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Shane Gray T:Geoffrey Harker	128	—	97398	49	63	-	226d	—	—	0	2.2	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Well beaten in two slow-turf handicaps in April; makes stable debut after 226-day absence
7 (1)	Hey Crackers Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Suzzanne France	J:Faye McManoman T:Suzzanne France	131	t	6000	52	64	22	84d	—	—	-1	1	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Struggled when 150-1 for stable/handicap debut in September; moves up from 7f

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Rebecca's Girl	6/5	evn	6/5
Volenti	5/2	5/2	5/2
Jujubella	7/1	6/1	13/2
Wheres The Crumpet	14/1	14/1	12/1
Big Narstie	12/1	16/1	16/1
Yaahobby	18/1	20/1	16/1
Likleman	25/1	33/1	25/1
Pop Favorite	28/1	28/1	28/1
Masham Moor	66/1	40/1	40/1
Ring Fenced	80/1	66/1	66/1
Born To Charm	80/1	66/1	66/1
Hey Crackers	200/1	150/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Rebecca's Girl

OR: 2.3 Form: 10.6 Odds: 14.2

6/5

2nd

Volenti

22.9

OR: 0.3 Form: 15.4 Odds: 7.3

5/2

3rd

Wheres The Crumpet

11.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Pop Favorite

6.4

OR: 0 Form: 5.5 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Yaahobby

5.2

OR: 0.3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Masham Moor

4.2

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Jujubella

3.6

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Big Narstie

2.9

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Born To Charm

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.7

80/1

Likleman

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.1

33/1

Hey Crackers

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

200/1

Ring Fenced

0.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rebecca's Girl	59	69	38
Big Narstie	55	66	51
Wheres The Crumpet	53	67	61
Jujubella	52	63	37
Hey Crackers	52	64	22
Volenti	51	72	58
Yaahobby	51	68	47
Ring Fenced	51	68	45
Pop Favorite	49	69	53
Born To Charm	49	63	—
Likleman	48	67	19
Masham Moor	47	68	65

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rebecca's Girl	3d ago	Quick return
Yaahobby	3d ago	Quick return
Wheres The Crumpet	17d ago	Fit
Pop Favorite	17d ago	Fit
Likleman	23d ago	Fit
Volenti	31d ago	Fit
Masham Moor	32d ago	Fit
Big Narstie	37d ago	Fit
Ring Fenced	39d ago	Fit
Jujubella	55d ago	Fresh
Hey Crackers	84d ago	Fresh
Born To Charm	226d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.