Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Newcastle (AW)

16:30

Date 2024-12-09

Distance 5f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,402

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (4)	Dc Cogent Bay J:David Nolan T:Bryan Smart	J:David Nolan T:Bryan Smart	130	—	2	-	85	58	28d	—	—	-28	22.1	0.20/1	4/5 56%
50-1 runner-up over C&D on last month's debut and he's a leading contender
1 (5)	Amerjeet Bay J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	137	b	344170	81	85	55	42d	—	—	0	18	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Won Lingfield nursery; disappointing the last twice but still respected back in a novice
5 (6)	Helaali Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Alice Haynes	J:Jason Hart T:Alice Haynes	130	tp	6	-	49	-	155d	—	—	-12	5	1.63/1	13/2 13%
One to watch in the betting on second start but well beaten on his debut at Ayr in July
7 (3)	Rogue Destiny Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:James Owen	J:Jack Mitchell T:James Owen	125	h	—	-	66	34	27d	—	—	-5	1.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Pulled hard when soundly beaten on debut but first-time hood could help her settle better
9 (1)	Star Zia Grey J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Half-sister to five winners; makes debut with yard in good form; possible player
2 (9)	Captain Kinsella Chestnut J:Sam Feilden(7) T:John Gallagher	J:Sam Feilden(7) T:John Gallagher	130	—	003	67	76	37	19d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+4	8.3	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Showed good pace when third over 6f at Kempton; in with a shout now back down in trip
6 (2)	Highland Bear Bay J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Oisin McSweeney(3) T:Julie Camacho	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Cost 20,000gns at the breeze-ups; half-sister to three winners; could go well on debut
4 (7)	El Cobre Fuego Chestnut J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Half-brother to 5f 2yo Group 3 winner Mrs Danvers but probably one for further down line
8 (8)	Sali Cinnamon Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Half-sister to 3 winners but at an ordinary level; others appeal more than this newcomer

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Dc Cogent	8/11	4/5	8/11	4/6	8/11
Amerjeet	4/1	4/1	4/1	9/2	7/2
Helaali	5/1	5/1	5/1	9/2	13/2
Rogue Destiny	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	11/1
Star Zia	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	12/1
Captain Kinsella	20/1	22/1	20/1	22/1	20/1
Highland Bear	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1
El Cobre Fuego	80/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1
Sali Cinnamon	150/1	125/1	125/1	125/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dc Cogent

22.1

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 17.1

4/5

2nd

Amerjeet

OR: 7.8 Form: 5 Odds: 5.2

9/2

3rd

Captain Kinsella

8.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 3 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Helaali

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5

13/2

Rogue Destiny

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Star Zia

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Highland Bear

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

El Cobre Fuego

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Sali Cinnamon

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Amerjeet	81	85	55
Captain Kinsella	67	76	37
Dc Cogent	—	85	58
Helaali	—	49	—
Rogue Destiny	—	66	34
Star Zia	—	—	—
Highland Bear	—	—	—
El Cobre Fuego	—	—	—
Sali Cinnamon	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Captain Kinsella	19d ago	Fit
Rogue Destiny	27d ago	Fit
Dc Cogent	28d ago	Fit
Amerjeet	42d ago	Fit
Helaali	155d ago	Long break
Star Zia	—	—
Highland Bear	—	—
El Cobre Fuego	—	—
Sali Cinnamon	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.