Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap (Div II) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

12:00

Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap (Div II)

Date 2024-12-20

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (5)	Charlatan Chestnut J:Taryn Langley(7) T:David Simcock	J:Taryn Langley(7) T:David Simcock	133	—	322968	50	68	28	16d	—	—	-12	8.7	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Completed an AW hat-trick at the start of the year; just 1lb above his last winning mark
6 (4)	Ajrad Chestnut J:Trevor Whelan T:Rod Millman	J:Trevor Whelan T:Rod Millman	131	p	23186U	48	63	49	32d	—	—	-12	7.8	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Still to prove he is as effective on Tapeta as he is on Polytrack
7 (3)	Elettaria Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:John Wainwright	J:Paul Mulrennan T:John Wainwright	131	p	373353	48	67	58	45d	—	—	-6	9.8	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Has run well since returning to Tapeta in October, finishing a close third last time
12 (9)	Available Angel Bay J:Finley Marsh T:John Mackie	J:Finley Marsh T:John Mackie	129	p	028534	46	63	51	32d	—	—	-6	6.7	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Has twice run well since returned to Tapeta last month; each-way claims again
8 (12)	Dark Side Premier Chestnut J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	131	t	86-9	49	57	-	333d	—	—	-6	2.1	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Makes his handicap debut after 11 months off; not quite sure what to expect; tongue-tie on
3 (8)	Naughty Niall Bay J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Ian Williams	J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Ian Williams	134	—	247900	52	62	25	30d	—	—	-5	2.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Has completely blown out since handicapping; return to Tapeta may help but risky
5 (2)	Ciara Storm Bay J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	131	b	0-8655	48	66	58	39d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	-5	1.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
0-12 but not disgraced the last twice and form of her latest start is working out well
9 (11)	Mr Slicker Bay J:Joe Leavy(3) T:Sarah Hollinshead	J:Joe Leavy(3) T:Sarah Hollinshead	130	p	090803	47	63	52	32d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	0	4.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Eight wins on the AW in France; third here last time but he needs to build on that
2 (1)	Break Point Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	135	—	0-8807	52	60	18	237d	—	—	-2	1.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Hasn't finished within 12l of the winner in five starts for this yard; look elsewhere
10 (7)	Gimcrack Warrior Bay J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Declan Carroll	J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Declan Carroll	130	—	777-09	47	58	-	32d	—	—	-2	0.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Not shown much in his five starts so far; makes little appeal
11 (10)	Tres Chic Black J:Luke Morris T:J S Moore	J:Luke Morris T:J S Moore	129	—	446344	47	60	-	50d	—	—	-1	2.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
3lb below last winning mark, but unplaced in all seven starts on the AW
1 (6)	Ravenswing Grey J:Tom Eaves T:Stella Barclay	J:Tom Eaves T:Stella Barclay	135	—	0/44-0	52	-	-	28d	—	—	-1	1.2	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Tailed off on stable debut at Newcastle four weeks ago; hard to fancy

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Charlatan	3/1	3/1	3/1
Ajrad	10/3	10/3	10/3
Elettaria	5/1	9/2	9/2
Available Angel	13/2	13/2	13/2
Dark Side Premier	10/1	10/1	10/1
Naughty Niall	12/1	12/1	11/1
Ciara Storm	14/1	12/1	12/1
Mr Slicker	20/1	20/1	20/1
Break Point	25/1	25/1	25/1
Gimcrack Warrior	33/1	33/1	33/1
Tres Chic	28/1	25/1	33/1
Ravenswing	66/1	33/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Elettaria

9.8

OR: 0 Form: 5.4 Odds: 4.4

5/1

2nd

Charlatan

8.7

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 6.2

3/1

3rd

Ajrad

7.8

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Available Angel

6.7

OR: 0 Form: 3.1 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Mr Slicker

4.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Naughty Niall

2.6

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Tres Chic

2.3

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Dark Side Premier

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Ciara Storm

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Break Point

1.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Ravenswing

1.2

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Gimcrack Warrior

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Naughty Niall	52	62	25
Break Point	52	60	18
Ravenswing	52	—	—
Charlatan	50	68	28
Dark Side Premier	49	57	—
Ajrad	48	63	49
Elettaria	48	67	58
Ciara Storm	48	66	58
Mr Slicker	47	63	52
Gimcrack Warrior	47	58	—
Tres Chic	47	60	—
Available Angel	46	63	51

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Charlatan	16d ago	Fit
Ravenswing	28d ago	Fit
Naughty Niall	30d ago	Fit
Ajrad	32d ago	Fit
Available Angel	32d ago	Fit
Mr Slicker	32d ago	Fit
Gimcrack Warrior	32d ago	Fit
Ciara Storm	39d ago	Fit
Elettaria	45d ago	Fit
Tres Chic	50d ago	Fresh
Break Point	237d ago	Long break
Dark Side Premier	333d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.