Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:15

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-12-28

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (7)	Harry The Haggler Chestnut J:Richard Kingscote T:David Loughnane	J:Richard Kingscote T:David Loughnane	131	t	236232	57	77	66	7d	—	—	-4	18.6	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Solid debut for his new yard last weekend; holds leading claims on that off the same mark
2 (10)	City Cyclone Chestnut J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	134	—	434326	60	78	68	14d	—	—	-3	12.5	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Excuses with one thing and another since returned to the AW and should fare better
8 (1)	Ring Of Gold Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	131	—	526405	57	78	52	46d	—	—	-6	6.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Frequently run well here without winning and is undeniably well treated; considered
7 (8)	Profitman Bay J:Hector Crouch T:B F Brookhouse	J:Hector Crouch T:B F Brookhouse	132	t	422614	59	73	59	8d	—	—	+5	14.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Three wins came over 7f; hasn't looked to see it out in a handful of attempts over further
10 (4)	Union Island Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Charlie Johnston	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	766061	57	76	67	9d	—	—	+3	15.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Unexposed at this trip and is a half-brother to two Tapeta winners; goes on the shortlist
4 (12)	Soames Forsyte Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	134	tp	668777	60	73	43	35d	—	—	-4	4.9	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Below market expectations behind King Of Speed last time; has it to prove now
12 (5)	King Of York Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	130	p	452648	56	74	66	8d	—	—	-3	5.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Patchy since returning from a summer break, latterly when behind Profitman last week
3 (9)	King Of Speed Bay J:Mason Paetel(7) T:Mark Loughnane	J:Mason Paetel(7) T:Mark Loughnane	134	t	543813	60	75	46	35d	—	—	+8	15.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Pulled hard in a messy affair at Wolverhampton five weeks ago and holds each-way claims
5 (11)	Mr Jetman Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	132	tp	234466	58	74	52	25d	—	—	-1	3.8	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Pulled hard for his new yard latest and that wasn't a bad effort in the circumstances
6 (3)	Saved Lizzie Chestnut J:Fred Daly(7) T:Robert Eddery	J:Fred Daly(7) T:Robert Eddery	132	—	755224	58	72	63	16d	—	—	+4	9.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Competitive since handicapping; didn't look to see out 1m2f latest and is one to consider
1 (6)	Heretic Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	134	t	/1-770	60	71	63	18d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+7	10.5	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Step back up to 1m may help but hasn't shown enough in three runs back to be recommended
11 (2)	Sky Lagoon Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Julie Camacho	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Julie Camacho	130	eb	6856	57	65	36	51d	—	—	0	2.3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Would want to see some support in first-time headgear before considering her

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Harry The Haggler	11/4	3/1	11/4	11/4	11/4
City Cyclone	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1	11/2
Ring Of Gold	11/2	6/1	11/2	11/2	6/1
Profitman	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2	9/1
Union Island	7/1	7/1	7/1	15/2	7/1
Soames Forsyte	10/1	9/1	9/1	10/1	9/1
King Of York	10/1	10/1	10/1	11/1	10/1
King Of Speed	12/1	12/1	12/1	10/1	12/1
Mr Jetman	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Saved Lizzie	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Heretic	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	28/1
Sky Lagoon	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Harry The Haggler

18.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 10.2 Odds: 6.7

3/1

2nd

King Of Speed

15.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 10.9 Odds: 2.1

12/1

3rd

Union Island

15.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 10 Odds: 3.6

15/2

Profitman

14.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 9.5 Odds: 2.7

9/1

City Cyclone

12.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Heretic

10.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 7 Odds: 1

33/1

Saved Lizzie

9.6

OR: 2 Form: 6 Odds: 1.6

22/1

Ring Of Gold

6.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 1 Odds: 3.6

6/1

King Of York

5.2

OR: 1.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Soames Forsyte

4.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Mr Jetman

3.8

OR: 2 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Sky Lagoon

2.3

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
City Cyclone	60	78	68
Soames Forsyte	60	73	43
King Of Speed	60	75	46
Heretic	60	71	63
Profitman	59	73	59
Mr Jetman	58	74	52
Saved Lizzie	58	72	63
Harry The Haggler	57	77	66
Ring Of Gold	57	78	52
Union Island	57	76	67
Sky Lagoon	57	65	36
King Of York	56	74	66

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Harry The Haggler	7d ago	Quick return
Profitman	8d ago	Quick return
King Of York	8d ago	Quick return
Union Island	9d ago	Quick return
City Cyclone	14d ago	Fit
Saved Lizzie	16d ago	Fit
Heretic	18d ago	Fit
Mr Jetman	25d ago	Fit
Soames Forsyte	35d ago	Fit
King Of Speed	35d ago	Fit
Ring Of Gold	46d ago	Fresh
Sky Lagoon	51d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.