Boost Your Acca At BetMGM EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

18:45

Date 2024-12-28

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,402

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (1)	Azaniya Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Owen Burrows	J:Richard Kingscote T:Owen Burrows	128	—	6	-	79	72	24d	—	—	-28	13.3	0.31/1	5/4 44%
25-1 at Kempton (7f, AW) but coming from towards rear for sixth of 14 showed clear promise
8 (9)	Only One Blue Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-20	8.9	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Newcomer who catches the eye with purchase price (105,000gns) and class in the pedigree
11 (10)	Suzette Defoye Chestnut J:David Probert T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:David Probert T:Simon & Ed Crisford	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-9	3.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
260,000euros yearling, well related; connections also run Harpsichord
6 (7)	Harpsichord Bay J:Josephine Gordon T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Josephine Gordon T:Simon & Ed Crisford	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.5	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Third foal; Ribchester half-sister to two winners, notably Siskany (1m-2m; RPR 119)
10 (6)	Sahana Bay J:Luke Morris T:David Simcock	J:Luke Morris T:David Simcock	128	h	75	-	73	37	37d	—	—	-5	1.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Second start (8.6f, AW) was some improvement but she needs more
12 (2)	Timeless Spirit Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Paul Attwater	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Paul Attwater	128	—	27	-	74	43	25d	—	—	0	4.7	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Hooded both starts but not today; place chance judged on debut here
4 (8)	Fortunas Dream Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	128	t	06	-	73	26	17d	—	—	-3	1.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Much better when about 2l sixth of 14 at Kempton (1m, AW) 17 days ago; now tongue tied
3 (11)	Captious Cantor Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Dunlop	J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Dunlop	128	—	05	-	62	31	10d	—	—	-1	0.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
80-1 and 66-1 when beaten about 12l in maidens over about 1m at Wolverhampton and Kempton
5 (5)	Gray Rainbow Grey J:Tom Eaves T:James Owen	J:Tom Eaves T:James Owen	128	—	74	-	64	40	10d	—	—	-1	0.5	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Needs to improve on the modest form of her two runs on Polytrack
2 (12)	Blue Siam Bay J:Joe Leavy(3) T:Hugo Palmer	J:Joe Leavy(3) T:Hugo Palmer	128	—	89	-	64	29	17d	—	—	-1	0.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Never dangerous over about 1m at Wolverhampton (16-1) or Kempton (100-1)
9 (4)	Riviera Song Chestnut J:Sam James T:David Loughnane	J:Sam James T:David Loughnane	128	—	9	-	64	-	37d	—	—	-1	0.5	37.50/1	150/1 1%
150-1 and blinkered when ninth of 12 at Wolverhampton (8.6f, AW) last month; headgear off
7 (3)	No Gain Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Martin Dunne	J:Dylan Hogan T:Martin Dunne	128	—	00	-	-	-	74d	—	—	-1	0.3	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Tailed when 150-1 at Newmarket and 300-1 at Yarmouth, both over 7f on softer than good

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Azaniya	11/10	5/4	5/4
Only One Blue	2/1	7/4	2/1
Suzette Defoye	13/2	6/1	6/1
Harpsichord	10/1	10/1	9/1
Sahana	20/1	16/1	20/1
Timeless Spirit	25/1	22/1	22/1
Fortunas Dream	25/1	25/1	25/1
Captious Cantor	100/1	80/1	80/1
Gray Rainbow	80/1	50/1	80/1
Blue Siam	80/1	80/1	80/1
Riviera Song	150/1	80/1	125/1
No Gain	250/1	100/1	200/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Azaniya

13.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 13.3

5/4

2nd

Only One Blue

8.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8.9

2/1

3rd

Timeless Spirit

4.7

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Suzette Defoye

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Harpsichord

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Sahana

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

20/1

Fortunas Dream

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Gray Rainbow

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Riviera Song

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

150/1

Blue Siam

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Captious Cantor

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

No Gain

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

250/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Azaniya	—	79	72
Only One Blue	—	—	—
Suzette Defoye	—	—	—
Harpsichord	—	—	—
Sahana	—	73	37
Timeless Spirit	—	74	43
Fortunas Dream	—	73	26
Captious Cantor	—	62	31
Gray Rainbow	—	64	40
Blue Siam	—	64	29
Riviera Song	—	64	—
No Gain	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Captious Cantor	10d ago	Quick return
Gray Rainbow	10d ago	Quick return
Fortunas Dream	17d ago	Fit
Blue Siam	17d ago	Fit
Azaniya	24d ago	Fit
Timeless Spirit	25d ago	Fit
Sahana	37d ago	Fit
Riviera Song	37d ago	Fit
No Gain	74d ago	Fresh
Only One Blue	—	—
Suzette Defoye	—	—
Harpsichord	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.