£30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:00

£30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap

Date 2025-02-04

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,972

Winning Time 1m 0.40s (slow by 2.90s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Paddy's Day (IRE) Alex Jary · Nigel Tinkler	11/4F	Won
2nd	Water Of Leith (IRE) Amie Waugh · Jim Goldie	12/1	.75
3rd	Leodis Dream (IRE) Warren Fentiman · Paul Midgley	8/1	0.1
4th	Dark Kestrel (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	3/1	0.2
5th	Match Play (GB) Mark Winn · Paul Midgley	14/1	1.25
6th	Reinforce (IRE) Hollie Doyle · Miss Katy Brown	22/1	4.5
7th	Popular Dream (GB) Joanna Mason · Derek Shaw	4/1	0.1
8th	Moon Flight (IRE) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	6/1	3.5

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (9)	Paddy's Day Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Nigel Tinkler	133	—	2327-1	80	93	84	10d	—	—	+1	24.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Dual C&D winner including ten days ago; respected in his follow-up bid
4 (6)	Dark Kestrel Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	129	t	344-32	76	96	83	12d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	-8	12.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Won over C&D in October and chased home an in-form rival at Southwell 12 days ago
2 (8)	Moon Flight Bay J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	135	—	52513-	82	91	-	200d	—	—	+7	24.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
C&D winner who has proved ultra-consistent so far, but a 200-day absence poses a question
7 (1)	Leodis Dream Bay J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:Paul Midgley	J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:Paul Midgley	123	—	65413-	70	93	84	99d	—	—	+7	18.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Made all over C&D in October; not seen in 99 days but has won fresh before; shortlisted
9 (7)	Popular Dream Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	J:Joanna Mason T:Derek Shaw	118	—	125-81	65	93	83	18d	—	—	-5	7.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Both wins at Southwell, the latest 18 days ago; stiffer track but holds each-way claims
5 (3)	Water Of Leith Bay J:Amie Waugh(3) T:Jim Goldie	J:Amie Waugh(3) T:Jim Goldie	126	—	36-129	73	93	64	10d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	+1	7.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Running well here before well held behind Paddy's Day last time; has to leave that behind
8 (4)	Match Play Bay J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	J:Mark Winn T:Paul Midgley	122	—	01898-	69	90	62	117d	—	—	+5	9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Off four months and has finished unplaced in four goes on the AW; others stronger
6 (2)	Reinforce Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:Miss Katy Brown	J:Hollie Doyle T:Miss Katy Brown	124	—	42000-	71	93	-	81d	—	—	+3	8.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Won twice over 5f on turf in Ireland last summer, but last three efforts have been poor
NR (5)	William Dewhirst Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	135	—	12-111	82	95	69	12d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	—	8	—	—
In flying form here since November (112111); big player if coping with the drop to 5f

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Paddy's Day	5/2	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4
Dark Kestrel	3/1	7/2	3/1	7/2	3/1
Moon Flight	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Leodis Dream	13/2	13/2	6/1	6/1	11/2
Popular Dream	7/1	6/1	6/1	13/2	11/2
Water Of Leith	12/1	14/1	12/1	11/1	12/1
Match Play	20/1	22/1	22/1	16/1	28/1
Reinforce	20/1	14/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
William Dewhirst	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Moon Flight

24.5

OR: 8 Form: 11.5 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Paddy's Day

24.4

OR: 7.5 Form: 10 Odds: 6.9

11/4

3rd

Leodis Dream

18.3

OR: 5 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Dark Kestrel

12.7

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

7/2

Match Play

OR: 4.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

28/1

Reinforce

8.4

OR: 5.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.6

20/1

William Dewhirst

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Water Of Leith

7.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Popular Dream

7.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Moon Flight	82	91	—
William Dewhirst	82	95	69
Paddy's Day	80	93	84
Dark Kestrel	76	96	83
Water Of Leith	73	93	64
Reinforce	71	93	—
Leodis Dream	70	93	84
Match Play	69	90	62
Popular Dream	65	93	83

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Paddy's Day	10d ago	Quick return
Water Of Leith	10d ago	Quick return
Dark Kestrel	12d ago	Quick return
William Dewhirst	12d ago	Quick return
Popular Dream	18d ago	Fit
Reinforce	81d ago	Fresh
Leodis Dream	99d ago	Long break
Match Play	117d ago	Long break
Moon Flight	200d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.