Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

17:30

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2026-04-07

Distance 4f214y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,978

Weather Clear

Temp 4.2°C

Wind 5mph E

Rain 0%

Winning Time 58.84s (slow by 2.54s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Castan (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Bryan Smart	100/30	Won
2nd	Blue Lakota (IRE) Jack Callan · Kevin Ryan	7/2	1.5
3rd	Fierce (IRE) John Fahy · Paul Midgley	20/1	.75
4th	Dark Kestrel (IRE) Harry Russell · Antony Brittain	8/1	0.3
5th	Tees Aggregates (IRE) Jack Garritty · Adrian Nicholls	12/1	.5
6th	Brazilian Belle (IRE) Sean Kirrane · Michael Dods	11/4F	.5
7th	Toomuchforme (GB) Billy Loughnane · Antony Brittain	11/2	2.25
8th	Smooth Silesie (IRE) Pat Cosgrave · Lisa Williamson	20/1	1

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (1)	Brazilian Belle Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	133	—	47-311	73	88	65	18d	—	—	-9	11.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
C&D winner and followed up at Wolverhampton latest; not taken lightly in hat-trick bid
4 (3)	Castan Chestnut J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Bryan Smart	134	p	53-228	74	86	76	33d	—	—	-8	11.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
C&D scorer; not seen to ideal effect when eighth at Newcastle latest; not out of things
5 (4)	Blue Lakota Chestnut J:Jack Callan(5) T:Kevin Ryan	J:Jack Callan(5) T:Kevin Ryan	134	—	-21634	74	86	81	19d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-2	17.8	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Course scorer who arrives in good nick; can make his presence felt again
9 (5)	Toomuchforme Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Antony Brittain	J:Billy Loughnane T:Antony Brittain	127	tv	7-7318	67	86	72	3d	—	—	-5	7.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
C&D winner; bumped start when last at Wolverhampton three days ago; can bounce back here
2 (2)	Dark Kestrel Bay J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	135	t	961816	75	86	70	18d	—	—	+10	18.6	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Solid sixth of nine in 5f Wolverhampton handicap 18 days ago; considered again
6 (7)	Tees Aggregates Bay J:Jack Garritty T:Adrian Nicholls	J:Jack Garritty T:Adrian Nicholls	134	—	43017-	74	87	-	226d	—	—	+9	15.8	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Caught wide when Beverley seventh in August; needs to hit ground running on Tapeta debut
1 (8)	Smooth Silesie Chestnut J:Pat Cosgrave T:Lisa Williamson	J:Pat Cosgrave T:Lisa Williamson	135	b	4371-6	75	85	70	14d	—	—	+3	7.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Last at Wolverhampton two weeks ago but can take big step forward with blinkers refitted
8 (6)	Fierce Bay J:John Fahy T:Paul Midgley	J:John Fahy T:Paul Midgley	129	—	00557-	69	85	79	132d	—	—	+2	6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Off since last in seller here in October; handily weighted if resurgent after a break
NR (9)	Binadham Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	134	p	342-63	74	87	71	18d	—	—	—	6	—	—
On a long losing sequence but good third at Wolverhampton 18 days ago; well in the mix

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Brazilian Belle	11/4	11/4	11/4
Castan	10/3	10/3	10/3
Blue Lakota	10/3	7/2	10/3
Toomuchforme	11/2	5/1	11/2
Dark Kestrel	9/1	9/1	17/2
Tees Aggregates	14/1	11/1	12/1
Smooth Silesie	20/1	18/1	18/1
Fierce	22/1	18/1	20/1
Binadham	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dark Kestrel

18.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.4

9/1

2nd

Blue Lakota

17.8

OR: 6 Form: 6.1 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

Tees Aggregates

15.8

OR: 6 Form: 7.9 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Brazilian Belle

11.9

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

11/4

Castan

11.7

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Toomuchforme

7.9

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Smooth Silesie

7.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Fierce

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Binadham

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dark Kestrel	75	86	70
Smooth Silesie	75	85	70
Castan	74	86	76
Blue Lakota	74	86	81
Tees Aggregates	74	87	—
Binadham	74	87	71
Brazilian Belle	73	88	65
Fierce	69	85	79
Toomuchforme	67	86	72

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Toomuchforme	3d ago	Quick return
Smooth Silesie	14d ago	Fit
Brazilian Belle	18d ago	Fit
Dark Kestrel	18d ago	Fit
Binadham	18d ago	Fit
Blue Lakota	19d ago	Fit
Castan	33d ago	Fit
Fierce	132d ago	Long break
Tees Aggregates	226d ago	Long break

Class

Horse	Prev Class	Change
Blue Lakota	Class Class 4	Class Rise

Compared to each horse's most recent recorded run. 0 drops, 1 rise.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 4f214y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.