Howden Manny Mercer Apprentice Handicap – Ascot

Ascot

13:30

Howden Manny Mercer Apprentice Handicap

Date 2023-05-03

Distance 1m

Class Class 3

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £10,800

Winning Time 1m 43.01s (slow by 4.11s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Chasing Aphrodite (GB) Pierre-Louis Jamin · Harry Eustace	8/1	Won
2nd	Yaanaas (GB) Aidan Keeley · Roger Varian	85/40F	1.5
3rd	Helm Rock (GB) William Carver · Daniel & Claire Kubler	16/1	0.3
4th	Baltimore Boy (IRE) Joe Bradnam · Michael Bell	8/1	.5
5th	Global Esteem (IRE) Kaiya Fraser · John Gallagher	10/1	.5
6th	Keyser Soze (IRE) Harry Russell · Richard Spencer	40/1	1
7th	Repertoire (GB) Olivia Haines · David Simcock	11/1	1
8th	Fantasy Believer (IRE) Callum Hutchinson · Ed Walker	25/1	.5
9th	Raising Sand (GB) Saffie Osborne · Jamie Osborne	14/1	2
10th	Devasboy (GB) Joe Leavy · Ian Williams	33/1	0.1
11th	Two Tempting (IRE) Adam Farragher · Jonathan Portman	7/1	3
12th	Bear Force One (GB) Billy Loughnane · Roger Teal	11/1	5.5
13th	Diffident Spirit (GB) Tommie Jakes · T J Kent	12/1	0.3
14th	Sagano (IRE) Anna Gibson · Gary Moore	125/1	1.5
15th	Al Marmar (IRE) Harry Davies · Andrew Balding	25/1	1

Runners (15)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
4 (3)	Yaanaas Chestnut J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Roger Varian	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Roger Varian	139	—	11	92	101	-	21d	—	—	+6	37.5	15/8 35%
Made big impression in two 1m AW wins this year; has plenty of scope; turf/handicap debut
1 (14)	Bear Force One Bay J:Billy Loughnane(3) T:Roger Teal	J:Billy Loughnane(3) T:Roger Teal	140	p	59-731	93	101	-	32d	—	—	+4	13.4	9 11%
Steadily recaptured form since absence, cosy AW winner latest (1m); weighted to go well
14 (7)	Two Tempting Chestnut J:Adam Farragher T:Jonathan Portman	J:Adam Farragher T:Jonathan Portman	123	—	5234-2	76	100	86	16d	—	—	+5	13.9	17/2 11%
Some sound efforts in handful of turf starts in 2022; in-form yard won this in 2016
5 (11)	Baltimore Boy Bay J:Joe Bradnam(7) T:Michael Bell	J:Joe Bradnam(7) T:Michael Bell	137	—	1202-0	90	104	40	32d	—	—	+4	12.4	10 10%
Strong C&D form in the autumn; perhaps heavy ground against him on return at Doncaster
12 (15)	Global Esteem Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:John Gallagher	J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:John Gallagher	128	—	13630-	81	99	83	194d	—	—	+8	14.5	14 7%
Won and gone well in just two C&D starts; needs to be bang on the button on return
11 (5)	Repertoire Bay J:Olivia Haines(7) T:David Simcock	J:Olivia Haines(7) T:David Simcock	129	—	49837-	82	101	89	186d	—	—	+6	11.8	12 8%
Streaked away with this in 2022; treading water since but just 2lb higher than for the win
3 (12)	Chasing Aphrodite Bay J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Harry Eustace	J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Harry Eustace	139	—	11038-	92	99	71	154d	—	—	+12	19.8	11 9%
Useful 1m handicap form on AW in October; had wind op since last seen in November
6 (4)	Raising Sand Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	136	p	98-640	89	101	65	15d	—	—	+6	11.1	16 6%
Excels here and won C&D classified in September; good 4th in the Spring Mile last month
15 (10)	Diffident Spirit Bay J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:T J Kent	J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:T J Kent	121	—	269-12	74	103	93	11d	—	—	+1	7.7	14 7%
In form but good recent efforts at 1m have come on heavy/soft in a lower grade
7 (2)	Al Marmar Brown J:Harry Davies T:Andrew Balding	J:Harry Davies T:Andrew Balding	132	b	27-003	85	100	-	23d	—	—	+5	10.1	16 6%
Won over 1m (round course) and went close over C&D in 2022; wellbeing query for now
2 (8)	Helm Rock Bay J:William Carver T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:William Carver T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	139	t	6910-0	92	98	86	32d	—	—	+7	11.7	20 5%
Well held both starts since Haydock win in September (1m); needs very best form to figure
9 (9)	Fantasy Believer Bay J:Callum Hutchinson T:Ed Walker	J:Callum Hutchinson T:Ed Walker	130	—	959-98	83	103	79	21d	—	—	+6	9.2	25 4%
Below best on last three starts, latest 2 on AW in 2023, but did win over C&D last summer
10 (1)	Keyser Soze Chestnut J:Harry Russell T:Richard Spencer	J:Harry Russell T:Richard Spencer	129	b	07-180	82	102	-	26d	—	—	+6	8.8	33 3%
Won this in 2021; not seen on turf since that July; AW winner in January; below form since
13 (13)	Devasboy Grey J:Joe Leavy(7) T:Ian Williams	J:Joe Leavy(7) T:Ian Williams	123	—	75-902	76	98	83	16d	—	—	+4	7.3	50 2%
All three wins at 7f but stays 1m; fair mark and best run for new yard on latest
8 (6)	Sagano Bay J:Anna Gibson(7) T:Gary Moore	J:Anna Gibson(7) T:Gary Moore	130	—	1643-0	83	96	84	16d	—	—	+7	8.6	100 1%
Four wins in France; well held on recent British debut back from layoff (33-1)

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Yaanaas	6/4	7/4	15/8	13/8	13/8
Bear Force One	9	8	15/2	8	15/2
Two Tempting	9	9	17/2	9	9
Baltimore Boy	9	10	9	9	9
Global Esteem	14	11	12	12	12
Repertoire	12	12	12	12	12
Chasing Aphrodite	11	9	9	10	10
Raising Sand	16	16	14	16	16
Diffident Spirit	14	11	14	12	12
Al Marmar	16	16	14	16	16
Helm Rock	20	20	18	20	20
Fantasy Believer	25	25	25	25	25
Keyser Soze	28	33	33	33	33
Devasboy	50	50	50	25	50
Sagano	100	100	100	100	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Yaanaas

37.5

OR: 10.5 Form: 17 Odds: 10

15/8

2nd

Chasing Aphrodite

19.8

OR: 10.5 Form: 7.1 Odds: 2.2

3rd

Global Esteem

14.5

OR: 7.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

Two Tempting

13.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 5 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Bear Force One

13.4

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

Baltimore Boy

12.4

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Repertoire

11.8

OR: 8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.7

Helm Rock

11.7

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Raising Sand

11.1

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Al Marmar

10.1

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Fantasy Believer

9.2

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Keyser Soze

8.8

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Sagano

8.6

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Diffident Spirit

7.7

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Devasboy

7.3

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bear Force One	93	101	—
Yaanaas	92	101	—
Chasing Aphrodite	92	99	71
Helm Rock	92	98	86
Baltimore Boy	90	104	40
Raising Sand	89	101	65
Al Marmar	85	100	—
Fantasy Believer	83	103	79
Sagano	83	96	84
Repertoire	82	101	89
Keyser Soze	82	102	—
Global Esteem	81	99	83
Two Tempting	76	100	86
Devasboy	76	98	83
Diffident Spirit	74	103	93

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Diffident Spirit	11d ago	Quick return
Raising Sand	15d ago	Fit
Two Tempting	16d ago	Fit
Devasboy	16d ago	Fit
Sagano	16d ago	Fit
Yaanaas	21d ago	Fit
Fantasy Believer	21d ago	Fit
Al Marmar	23d ago	Fit
Keyser Soze	26d ago	Fit
Bear Force One	32d ago	Fit
Baltimore Boy	32d ago	Fit
Helm Rock	32d ago	Fit
Chasing Aphrodite	154d ago	Long break
Repertoire	186d ago	Long break
Global Esteem	194d ago	Long break