Graeme Dand @theformanalyst Celebration Handicap

Ripon

5:25

Date 2024-05-30

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,664

Runners 11

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
4 (4)	Run This Way b David Nolan · Paul Midgley	David Nolan · Paul Midgley	139	v	58-971	59	70	59	2d	—	—	-27	16.4	11/10 48%
Won with something to spare at Redcar on Tuesday; key player if repeating that form
1 (8)	Hurstwood gr Mark Winn(3) · Peter Niven	Mark Winn(3) · Peter Niven	136	—	502-97	56	69	48	17d	—	—	-9	5.5	6/1 14%
Won this last year; one to be interested in if the ground dries
10 (11)	Fylingdale b Jason Hart · Tim Easterby	Jason Hart · Tim Easterby	128	—	10-097	48	71	49	12d	—	—	-6	2.1	11/1 8%
Could do with breaking better but has shown promise in big fields at Thirsk the last twice
7 (9)	Ernest Rutherford b David Allan · Tim Easterby	David Allan · Tim Easterby	132	tp	70-406	52	66	51	17d	—	—	-5	2.4	12/1 8%
Has a regressive profile but ran okay last time and the step back up to 6f is worth a go
8 (7)	Variety Island b Cam Hardie · Simon Whitaker	Cam Hardie · Simon Whitaker	130	p	0-9916	50	66	56	17d	—	—	-6	2.5	10/1 9%
Positive efforts at Catterick the last twice; something to prove if slow ground prevails
3 (3)	Fircombe Hall ch Connor Beasley · Philip Kirby	Connor Beasley · Philip Kirby	134	p	133719	54	67	47	17d	—	—	+5	11.2	12/1 8%
Two AW wins this spring but just 1-20 on grass and mid-division back on turf last time
11 (10)	Hard Solution ch James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	127	b	631785	47	68	41	13d	—	—	-1	5.3	16/1 6%
Won AW classified in March; some reasonable handicap form since but needs something extra
9 (5)	West End Lass b Lewis Edmunds · Kevin Frost	Lewis Edmunds · Kevin Frost	129	—	66508	49	59	-	27d	—	—	-3	1.1	25/1 4%
Soundly beaten this spring in both handicaps (6f, AW); has to raise her game; turf debut
5 (2)	Protest Rally b Daniel Tudhope · Liam Bailey	Daniel Tudhope · Liam Bailey	134	p	50-854	54	66	42	13d	—	—	-2	2.2	25/1 4%
Fair runs the last twice; each-way claims if handling conditions (unproven on slow turf)
2 (1)	Gunnerside gr Benoit De La Sayette · Grant Tuer	Benoit De La Sayette · Grant Tuer	135	—	55075-	55	66	68	261d	—	—	-1	2.1	28/1 3%
Two wins last spring but patchy form from June onwards and returns from absence
NR (6)	Tilsworth Turf ch TBC · J R Jenkins	· J R Jenkins	132	—	48781P	52	66	47	19d	—	—	—	6	—
Pulled up last time (reportedly took false step); 125-1 win on soft ground the time before

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Run This Way	10/11	11/10	evn	evn	evn
Hurstwood	6/1	11/2	5/1	5/1	5/1
Fylingdale	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	10/1
Ernest Rutherford	12/1	12/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Variety Island	10/1	10/1	9/1	9/1	15/2
Fircombe Hall	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Hard Solution	16/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
West End Lass	25/1	22/1	20/1	22/1	18/1
Protest Rally	25/1	18/1	22/1	16/1	16/1
Gunnerside	25/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	22/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Run This Way

16.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 14.2

11/10

2nd

Fircombe Hall

11.2

OR: 1 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.7

12/1

3rd

Tilsworth Turf

OR: 0.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 0

—

Hurstwood

5.5

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4

6/1

Hard Solution

5.3

OR: 0 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Variety Island

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Ernest Rutherford

2.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Protest Rally

2.2

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Fylingdale

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Gunnerside

2.1

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

West End Lass

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Run This Way Top Rated	59	70	59
Hurstwood	56	69	48
Gunnerside	55	66	68
Fircombe Hall	54	67	47
Protest Rally	54	66	42
Ernest Rutherford	52	66	51
Tilsworth Turf	52	66	47
Variety Island	50	66	56
West End Lass	49	59	—
Fylingdale	48	71	49
Hard Solution	47	68	41

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Run This Way	2d ago	Quick return
Hurstwood	17d ago	Fit
Fylingdale	12d ago	Quick return
Ernest Rutherford	17d ago	Fit
Variety Island	17d ago	Fit
Fircombe Hall	17d ago	Fit
Hard Solution	13d ago	Quick return
West End Lass	27d ago	Fit
Protest Rally	13d ago	Quick return
Gunnerside	261d ago	Long break
Tilsworth Turf	19d ago	Fit

Going: Soft

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