Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap)

Ayr

3:35

Date 2024-09-21

Distance 6f

Class Class 2

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £92,772

Runners 25

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
16 (4)	American Affair b Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	128	—	212231	97	119	103	7d	—	—	+15	36	10/3 23%
Making giant strides this year and overcame trouble to win the Portland; can do better yet
17 (8)	Rohaan b Tom Queally · David Evans	Tom Queally · David Evans	127	v	580803	96	120	105	14d	—	—	+8	17	17/2 11%
On a good mark and last two runs can both be upgraded; each-way claims
9 (15)	Mostabshir gr Jim Crowley · John & Thady Gosden	Jim Crowley · John & Thady Gosden	131	b	-30404	100	117	108	49d	—	—	+7	15.5	10/1 9%
Coped well with 6f when fourth in the Stewards' Cup; this track could prove a better fit
5 (3)	Orazio gr Billy Loughnane · Charles Hills	Billy Loughnane · Charles Hills	134	—	0-3030	103	115	95	56d	—	—	+8	15.4	14/1 7%
Wokingham third was a fine effort; 7f too far since but he's 3lb higher than at Ascot
3 (14)	Ramazan b Oisin McSweeney(3) · Richard Fahey	Oisin McSweeney(3) · Richard Fahey	137	—	228782	106	117	101	35d	—	—	+15	21.9	12/1 8%
Second here 12 months ago; pipped by Dare To Hope at Ripon latest; rock solid to run well
6 (22)	Room Service b Tom Eaves · Kevin Ryan	Tom Eaves · Kevin Ryan	134	—	31-761	105	115	96	74d	—	—	+8	15.9	14/1 7%
Unexposed 3yo; plenty to spare at Pontefract in July; wind op since; best form on soft
7 (20)	Lethal Levi b Clifford Lee · K R Burke	Clifford Lee · K R Burke	133	b	014201	102	114	101	35d	—	—	+23	29.1	16/1 6%
Has done well since blinkered but whether he can dominate this field remains to be seen
24 (6)	Strike Red b Billy Garritty · Richard Fahey	Billy Garritty · Richard Fahey	124	—	505629	93	121	105	6d	—	—	+10	16	16/1 6%
York 2nd last month brings him into the reckoning; below best at this meeting in 2021/22
8 (17)	Jordan Electrics b Daniel Tudhope · Jim Goldie	Daniel Tudhope · Jim Goldie	132	—	111172	101	119	102	31d	—	—	+23	29.5	12/1 8%
Seven wins this year and latest York second another fine performance; needs consideration
23 (9)	Sergeant Wilko b Kevin Stott · Kevin Ryan	Kevin Stott · Kevin Ryan	125	—	-14111	96	119	102	27d	—	—	+31	37.1	18/1 5%
Front-runner; 4-4 in 6f handicaps this year; may do better yet but slower ground preferred
13 (25)	Pilgrim gr Joe Fanning · David & Nicola Barron	Joe Fanning · David & Nicola Barron	129	—	-03110	100	115	105	31d	—	—	+23	26.5	25/1 4%
Drawn on the wrong side at York latest; progressing well beforehand and still low mileage
19 (13)	Aramis Grey gr Callum Shepherd · Rae Guest	Callum Shepherd · Rae Guest	126	—	282543	95	118	108	40d	—	—	+13	16.8	25/1 4%
Tough and consistent mare but not sure she's handicapped to win this
22 (1)	King's Lynn b William Carver(3) · Andrew Balding	William Carver(3) · Andrew Balding	125	—	425342	94	117	92	6d	—	—	+15	19.7	28/1 3%
On a losing run and although he retains significant ability, this looks too demanding
1 (12)	Commanche Falls br Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	138	b	025634	107	118	96	21d	—	—	+14	18.6	25/1 4%
Stable stalwart, 2nd here in 2022 off 2lb higher; good 3rd at the Ebor meeting; vulnerable
18 (18)	Billyjoh gr Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	127	p	420230	96	118	106	28d	—	—	+14	18.1	25/1 4%
String of good runs in deep handicaps this season; not well drawn latest; one to consider
14 (11)	Glenfinnan b David Nolan · Michael Dods	David Nolan · Michael Dods	129	—	135601	98	114	104	21d	—	—	+20	23.4	28/1 3%
Two wins for new yard this year but not easily recommended under a penalty
20 (21)	Dare To Hope b Connor Murtagh · Richard Fahey	Connor Murtagh · Richard Fahey	125	—	384017	94	116	97	28d	—	—	+15	19.1	25/1 4%
Beat Ramazan in the Great St Wilfrid; no excuses when only seventh at York last time
4 (24)	Korker b Jason Hart · K R Burke	Jason Hart · K R Burke	135	—	930423	104	116	92	13d	—	—	+19	21.3	40/1 2%
Habitual slow starter; running well at York of late but the stiffer test could stretch him
21 (2)	Jehangeer b Shane Gray · Kevin Ryan	Shane Gray · Kevin Ryan	125	—	3-3109	96	116	85	28d	—	—	+11	14.5	33/1 3%
C&D win as a 2yo; quiet since a Thirsk win in July; others look much safer
2 (23)	Northern Express ch David Egan · Michael Dods	David Egan · Michael Dods	137	p	572521	106	116	100	56d	—	—	+27	29.7	33/1 3%
Fine front-running win at Ascot in July (7f); unexposed in this headgear; 6f the concern
11 (10)	Fivethousandtoone b P J McDonald · Andrew Balding	P J McDonald · Andrew Balding	130	v	904006	99	114	98	28d	—	—	+10	13	40/1 2%
Better on AW now but he ran far better than the final position suggests in York G2 latest
25 (5)	Tinto b Rhys Elliott(7) · Michael Dods	Rhys Elliott(7) · Michael Dods	124	p	717031	93	115	104	22d	—	—	+23	25.4	40/1 2%
Two Thirsk wins this year; second in Silver Cup 12 months ago; this looks too competitive
15 (7)	Aleezdancer b Sean Levey · Kevin Ryan	Sean Levey · Kevin Ryan	128	b	6-3010	97	117	90	112d	—	—	+10	12.2	50/1 2%
York win in May brings him into it but the drying ground doesn't look ideal
10 (19)	Silky Wilkie b Sam Feilden(7) · K R Burke	Sam Feilden(7) · K R Burke	130	v	762808	99	117	107	7d	—	—	+12	14.2	66/1 1%
Losing run stands at 20; recent efforts not his best; opposable despite new headgear
12 (16)	Coachello b Callum Rodriguez · Mark Loughnane	Callum Rodriguez · Mark Loughnane	130	—	405070	99	113	83	28d	—	—	+11	12.6	80/1 1%
Not fired in three runs for new yard and looks up against it once more

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
American Affair	10/3	3/1	3/1	3/1	10/3
Rohaan	8/1	8/1	8/1	17/2	15/2
Mostabshir	10/1	17/2	9/1	8/1	9/1
Orazio	12/1	12/1	12/1	14/1	11/1
Ramazan	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Room Service	11/1	12/1	12/1	14/1	12/1
Lethal Levi	14/1	12/1	14/1	16/1	14/1
Strike Red	14/1	14/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
Jordan Electrics	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	11/1
Sergeant Wilko	18/1	16/1	16/1	18/1	16/1
Pilgrim	22/1	22/1	22/1	25/1	22/1
Aramis Grey	22/1	22/1	22/1	25/1	22/1
King's Lynn	28/1	22/1	25/1	28/1	28/1
Commanche Falls	22/1	22/1	22/1	25/1	22/1
Billyjoh	22/1	22/1	22/1	25/1	22/1
Glenfinnan	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1
Dare To Hope	22/1	22/1	22/1	25/1	22/1
Korker	33/1	33/1	33/1	40/1	33/1
Jehangeer	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Northern Express	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	28/1
Fivethousandtoone	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Tinto	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Aleezdancer	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Silky Wilkie	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1
Coachello	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sergeant Wilko

37.1

OR: 11.5 Form: 24 Odds: 1.6

18/1

2nd

American Affair

OR: 11.8 Form: 18.1 Odds: 6.2

10/3

3rd

Northern Express

29.7

OR: 14 Form: 15 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Jordan Electrics

29.5

OR: 12.8 Form: 15 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Lethal Levi

29.1

OR: 13 Form: 14.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Pilgrim

26.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 12.9 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Tinto

25.4

OR: 10.8 Form: 14.1 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Glenfinnan

23.4

OR: 12 Form: 10.6 Odds: 0.8

28/1

Ramazan

21.9

OR: 14 Form: 6 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Korker

21.3

OR: 13.5 Form: 7.1 Odds: 0.7

40/1

King's Lynn

19.7

OR: 11 Form: 7.5 Odds: 1.2

28/1

Dare To Hope

19.1

OR: 11 Form: 7 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Commanche Falls

18.6

OR: 14.3 Form: 3.1 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Billyjoh

18.1

OR: 11.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 1

25/1

Rohaan

OR: 11.5 Form: 3 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Aramis Grey

16.8

OR: 11.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Strike Red

OR: 10.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Room Service

15.9

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Mostabshir

15.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Orazio

15.4

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Jehangeer

14.5

OR: 11.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Silky Wilkie

14.2

OR: 12.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Fivethousandtoone

OR: 12.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Coachello

12.6

OR: 12.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

80/1

Aleezdancer

12.2

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Commanche Falls Top Rated	107	118	96
Ramazan	106	117	101
Northern Express	106	116	100
Room Service	105	115	96
Korker	104	116	92
Orazio	103	115	95
Lethal Levi	102	114	101
Jordan Electrics	101	119	102
Mostabshir	100	117	108
Pilgrim	100	115	105
Fivethousandtoone	99	114	98
Silky Wilkie	99	117	107
Coachello	99	113	83
Glenfinnan	98	114	104
American Affair	97	119	103
Aleezdancer	97	117	90
Rohaan	96	120	105
Sergeant Wilko	96	119	102
Billyjoh	96	118	106
Jehangeer	96	116	85
Aramis Grey	95	118	108
King's Lynn	94	117	92
Dare To Hope	94	116	97
Strike Red	93	121	105
Tinto	93	115	104

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
American Affair	7d ago	Quick return
Rohaan	14d ago	Fit
Mostabshir	49d ago	Fresh
Orazio	56d ago	Fresh
Ramazan	35d ago	Fit
Room Service	74d ago	Fresh
Lethal Levi	35d ago	Fit
Strike Red	6d ago	Quick return
Jordan Electrics	31d ago	Fit
Sergeant Wilko	27d ago	Fit
Pilgrim	31d ago	Fit
Aramis Grey	40d ago	Fit
King's Lynn	6d ago	Quick return
Commanche Falls	21d ago	Fit
Billyjoh	28d ago	Fit
Glenfinnan	21d ago	Fit
Dare To Hope	28d ago	Fit
Korker	13d ago	Quick return
Jehangeer	28d ago	Fit
Northern Express	56d ago	Fresh
Fivethousandtoone	28d ago	Fit
Tinto	22d ago	Fit
Aleezdancer	112d ago	Long break
Silky Wilkie	7d ago	Quick return
Coachello	28d ago	Fit

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Lethal Levi	Front Runner
Sergeant Wilko	Front Runner
Dare To Hope	Mid-Pack
Aleezdancer	Mid-Pack

Inferred from horse comments. 4 of 25 runners classified.

Going: Good To Firm

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