Ultimate Provence Handicap – Newmarket

Newmarket

5:05

Ultimate Provence Handicap

Date 2024-09-26

Distance 1m

Class Class 4

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £6,700

Runners 14

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
12 (14)	Terries Royale b Tom Marquand · Michael Appleby	Tom Marquand · Michael Appleby	132	—	732412	72	91	81	11d	—	—	-5	31.4	5/4 44%
Off the mark at Ascot before he seemingly threw away a Doncaster 1m race by veering left
5 (13)	Amsterdam ch Oisin Murphy · Ed Walker	Oisin Murphy · Ed Walker	137	—	6-2522	81	85	66	18d	—	—	-11	16.2	9/4 31%
Five-race maiden with three seconds, including from the front in 7f/1m handicaps
11 (2)	Pressure's On b Rossa Ryan · Ed Dunlop	Rossa Ryan · Ed Dunlop	133	—	1-2855	77	87	75	28d	—	—	+5	17.1	15/2 12%
Not so good lately and he did not convince for stamina when trying 1m on latest start
4 (3)	Mr Baloo b Sean Levey · Richard Hannon	Sean Levey · Richard Hannon	138	—	141594	82	84	69	13d	—	—	+5	13.2	12/1 8%
Two 3yo wins on Kempton AW; something to find today judged on turf efforts in particular
14 (11)	Lake Teo b William Buick · Charles Hills	William Buick · Charles Hills	128	—	64325	72	81	70	47d	—	—	+6	12.2	18/1 5%
Needs to find a fair bit extra for today's drop back in trip if she's to get off the mark
3 (1)	Bajan Bandit b Oliver Stammers · Grant Tuer	Oliver Stammers · Grant Tuer	139	—	2-0000	79	85	39	12d	—	—	+8	12	20/1 5%
Badly lost his form this spring and he was again among the backmarkers 12 days ago
13 (7)	Desperate Dan b Ray Dawson · Peter Chapple-Hyam	Ray Dawson · Peter Chapple-Hyam	129	—	8028	73	82	58	23d	—	—	+6	10.6	25/1 4%
Hampered on handicap debut last time; improvement is still needed to win this, though
2 (12)	Stockpyle b Lewis Edmunds · William Muir & Chris Grassick	Lewis Edmunds · William Muir & Chris Grassick	139	—	117559	79	88	76	19d	—	—	+6	10.3	25/1 4%
Quick double when front-running in June but not so good since, particularly latest start
NR (8)	Repertoire b Jamie Spencer · David Simcock	Jamie Spencer · David Simcock	139	—	445373	79	91	76	33d	—	—	—	11.8	—
Fair third last time; has a competitive mark judged on peak efforts in 2023 and 2024
NR (6)	Hieronymus b Nicola Currie · George Baker	Nicola Currie · George Baker	137	p	088083	77	83	58	19d	—	—	—	9.8	—
Back to form on AW last time; 0-22 on turf; others preferred
NR (9)	Classic Encounter b Billy Loughnane · George Boughey	Billy Loughnane · George Boughey	136	—	622-5	80	91	77	16d	—	—	—	7.5	—
2nd twice for C Appleby as 2yo and showed promise on recent reappearance; handicap debut
NR (4)	Island Bandit ch Jack Mitchell · Heather Main	Jack Mitchell · Heather Main	136	b	26-747	76	87	77	28d	—	—	—	6.5	—
Often front-runner; six wins overall but he's not fired in his three runs this season
NR (5)	Where's Freddy ch Richard Kingscote · Stuart Williams	Richard Kingscote · Stuart Williams	133	tp	-30152	73	87	81	5d	—	—	—	16.4	—
Has done well at Newmarket over 7f; it wasn't the trip which beat him in two 1m placings
NR (10)	Drink Dry b Hollie Doyle · Marco Botti	Hollie Doyle · Marco Botti	133	p	321473	77	84	77	27d	—	—	—	13.8	—
Creditable 3rd of six at Sandown on latest start was his best show in last three handicaps

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Terries Royale	5/4	5/4	5/4	6/5	5/4
Amsterdam	9/4	9/4	9/4	2/1	85/40
Pressure's On	13/2	15/2	13/2	15/2	13/2
Mr Baloo	12/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	10/1
Lake Teo	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	12/1
Bajan Bandit	20/1	20/1	20/1	18/1	16/1
Desperate Dan	25/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	14/1
Stockpyle	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1	18/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Terries Royale

31.4

OR: 5.5 Form: 14.1 Odds: 11.8

5/4

2nd

Pressure's On

17.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 7 Odds: 3.3

15/2

3rd

Where's Freddy

16.4

OR: 5.8 Form: 10.6 Odds: 0

—

Amsterdam

16.2

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

9/4

Drink Dry

13.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 7 Odds: 0

—

Mr Baloo

13.2

OR: 8 Form: 3 Odds: 2.2

12/1

Lake Teo

12.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

18/1

Bajan Bandit

OR: 7.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Repertoire

11.8

OR: 7.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 0

—

Desperate Dan

10.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.4

25/1

Stockpyle

10.3

OR: 7.3 Form: 2 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Hieronymus

9.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 3 Odds: 0

—

Classic Encounter

7.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Island Bandit

6.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mr Baloo Top Rated	82	84	69
Amsterdam	81	85	66
Classic Encounter	80	91	77
Bajan Bandit	79	85	39
Stockpyle	79	88	76
Repertoire	79	91	76
Pressure's On	77	87	75
Hieronymus	77	83	58
Drink Dry	77	84	77
Island Bandit	76	87	77
Desperate Dan	73	82	58
Where's Freddy	73	87	81
Terries Royale	72	91	81
Lake Teo	72	81	70

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Terries Royale	11d ago	Quick return
Amsterdam	18d ago	Fit
Pressure's On	28d ago	Fit
Mr Baloo	13d ago	Quick return
Lake Teo	47d ago	Fresh
Bajan Bandit	12d ago	Quick return
Desperate Dan	23d ago	Fit
Stockpyle	19d ago	Fit
Repertoire	33d ago	Fit
Hieronymus	19d ago	Fit
Classic Encounter	16d ago	Fit
Island Bandit	28d ago	Fit
Where's Freddy	5d ago	Quick return
Drink Dry	27d ago	Fit

Going: Soft

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