Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3)

Newmarket

15:00

Date 2023-04-20

Distance 6f

Class Class 1

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £45,368

Runners (9)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
2 (4)	Creative Force Chestnut J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	135	—	02433-	117	126	117	166d	—	—	-11	41.4	8/13 62%
Group 1 winner over 6f as 3yo; winless in 2022 but ran some fine races; sights lowered
5 (6)	Jumby Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Oisin Murphy T:Eve Johnson Houghton	135	—	01965-	110	121	105	195d	—	—	+10	21.1	15/2 12%
3rd in this last year; won 7f Group 2 in August; kept to good or quicker for nearly 2 yrs
7 (3)	Silky Wilkie Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	135	—	-22181	108	119	106	12d	—	—	+26	34.2	9 11%
Found further improvement to win 5f turf handicap; right up in class in first 6f turf run
4 (5)	Garrus Grey J:Ryan Moore T:Charles Hills	J:Ryan Moore T:Charles Hills	135	—	0130-8	113	122	102	54d	—	—	+10	18.1	10 10%
Second here in 2022; improved form since; well held on 2 most recent starts; might revive
8 (8)	Tiber Flow br/gr J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	135	—	21865-	106	116	105	201d	—	—	+12	20.5	8 13%
Creditable 5th considering slow start in Group 3 on final 3yo outing; can improve
1 (2)	Commanche Falls Brown J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	135	p	2235-7	111	123	104	19d	—	—	+12	16.3	25 4%
Compiling a terrific record; close 3rd in 6f Group 3 in October; other targets await
NR (1)	Fast Response Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:K R Burke	J:NON-RUNNER T:K R Burke	132	—	1171-2	103	-	-	19d	—	—	+2	25.4	16 6%
Good Listed win over 6f on heavy in November; creditable return; drying ground not ideal
NR (7)	Ehraz Chestnut J:TBC T:Richard Hannon	J: T:Richard Hannon	135	—	2691-3	105	115	104	19d	—	—	+7	20.8	6 17%
Listed 6f winner last May but no further progress; satisfactory return; needs more
6 (9)	Saint Lawrence Bay J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	135	—	36600-	103	113	105	264d	—	—	+12	14.6	40 3%
Won 7f Listed as 2yo; mixed since but close 3rd in Group 3 over 5f here on return in 2022

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Creative Force	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13
Jumby	8	15/2	7/1	15/2	15/2
Silky Wilkie	9	9	9	9	9
Garrus	9	8	9	9	10
Tiber Flow	8	8	8	8	8
Commanche Falls	22	22	25	22	20
Fast Response	16	10	10	12	14
Ehraz	6	6	6	9/2	5
Saint Lawrence	33	28	40	33	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Creative Force

41.4

OR: 16.8 Form: 6.6 Odds: 18

8/13

2nd

Silky Wilkie

34.2

OR: 14.5 Form: 17.5 Odds: 2.2

3rd

Fast Response

25.4

OR: 13.3 Form: 5 Odds: 7.1

Jumby

21.1

OR: 15 Form: 3 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Ehraz

20.8

OR: 13.8 Form: 3 Odds: 4

Tiber Flow

20.5

OR: 14 Form: 4 Odds: 2.5

Garrus

18.1

OR: 15.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Commanche Falls

16.3

OR: 15.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Saint Lawrence

14.6

OR: 13.3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Creative Force	117	126	117
Garrus	113	122	102
Commanche Falls	111	123	104
Jumby	110	121	105
Silky Wilkie	108	119	106
Tiber Flow	106	116	105
Ehraz	105	115	104
Fast Response	103	—	—
Saint Lawrence	103	113	105

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Silky Wilkie	12d ago	Quick return
Commanche Falls	19d ago	Fit
Fast Response	19d ago	Fit
Ehraz	19d ago	Fit
Garrus	54d ago	Fresh
Creative Force	166d ago	Long break
Jumby	195d ago	Long break
Tiber Flow	201d ago	Long break
Saint Lawrence	264d ago	Long break