At The Races App Market Movers Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:25

At The Races App Market Movers Handicap

Date 2023-05-05

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,245

Winning Time 1m 13.01s (slow by 2.61s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Beast Of Burden (GB) Ray Dawson · Ronald Thompson	12/1	Won
2nd	Macho Pride (IRE) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	9/2	1.25
3rd	Sam's Call (GB) Shane Gray · Michael & David Easterby	9/1	1
4th	Zegos Surprise (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Iain Jardine	10/1	.5
5th	Gran Roque (IRE) Jonny Peate · Roger Fell	50/1	.75
6th	Mutanaaseq (IRE) Ryan Sexton · Ruth Carr	15/2	0.2
7th	Dreamcasing (GB) Sam James · Grant Tuer	100/30F	0.05
8th	Merry Secret (IRE) Sean Kirrane · Lawrence Mullaney	11/2	1.25
9th	Birdie Bowers (IRE) Ben Curtis · David Thompson	22/1	.5
10th	Danah Star (GB) William Pyle · John Wainwright	25/1	.5
11th	Mutabaahy (IRE) Jason Hart · Antony Brittain	17/2	.75
12th	Atrafan (IRE) Rowan Scott · Alan Brown	33/1	1.25
13th	Final Account (GB) Tom Eaves · Linda Stubbs	11/1	7

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (10)	Dreamcasing Brown J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	132	—	02636-	51	71	-	251d	—	—	-9	9.1	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Evidently felt better than this sort of mark; needs watching in the market on his comeback
3 (6)	Macho Pride Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	135	—	-64687	54	67	61	13d	—	—	-8	4.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Well handicapped on a couple of C&D efforts in the winter; is one of the likelier winners
12 (9)	Mutanaaseq Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Ruth Carr	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Ruth Carr	127	—	576-66	46	70	-	18d	—	—	-7	2.7	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Two years since his last win and is 0-8 on the AW; hit traffic at a key stage last time
5 (8)	Merry Secret Bay J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Lawrence Mullaney	J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Lawrence Mullaney	133	—	7-1940	52	68	44	13d	—	—	-9	4.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Valid excuses since a C&D win in March; can't be left out of calculations
NR (12)	Boarhunt Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	131	—	0-6182	50	66	53	17d	—	—	-18	7.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Has claims on his latest second, upped 2lb, if coping with the return to sprinting
1 (7)	Sams Call Bay J:Shane Gray T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Shane Gray T:Michael & David Easterby	135	v	-42556	54	68	60	55d	—	—	-6	5.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
The return to Tapeta, back in the visor, should suit but he's become expensive to follow
2 (4)	Final Account Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Linda Stubbs	J:Tom Eaves T:Linda Stubbs	135	p	014234	54	67	59	35d	—	—	+1	10.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Has claims if the return of headgear, for the first time for this yard, does the trick
9 (5)	Mutabaahy Bay J:Jason Hart T:Antony Brittain	J:Jason Hart T:Antony Brittain	130	p	437561	49	64	51	3d	—	—	+5	12.7	2.50/1	11 9%
Wolverhampton specialist; bounced back on Tuesday but often fluffs the start
7 (2)	Birdie Bowers Bay J:Ben Curtis T:David Thompson	J:Ben Curtis T:David Thompson	132	—	-05539	51	65	55	9d	—	—	-2	4.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Unsuited by tacky ground when below market expectations latest; possibilities
10 (11)	Zegos Surprise Grey J:Callum Rodriguez T:Iain Jardine	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Iain Jardine	128	t	-02425	47	67	53	25d	—	—	+1	6.4	3.75/1	16 6%
More consistent for this yard over C&D prior to her latest run on soft; should fare better
4 (1)	Atrafan Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Alan Brown	J:Rowan Scott T:Alan Brown	134	p	221218	53	67	59	85d	—	—	+10	16	2.75/1	12 8%
Six-time C&D winner, all of them in the winter; others look better treated
13 (13)	Danah Star Bay J:William Pyle(7) T:John Wainwright	J:William Pyle(7) T:John Wainwright	126	—	4-7578	45	64	62	25d	—	—	-3	1	6.00/1	25 4%
Failed to win for James Evans and hasn't offered much in two runs for her new yard
11 (14)	Gran Roque Chestnut J:Jonny Peate(5) T:Roger Fell	J:Jonny Peate(5) T:Roger Fell	128	p	500-07	47	60	-	25d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.25/1	22 5%
Well held in two soft-ground runs for her new yard this spring; isn't obviously fancied
14 (3)	Beast Of Burden Bay J:Ray Dawson T:Ronald Thompson	J:Ray Dawson T:Ronald Thompson	126	t	7097	45	60	15	21d	—	—	-2	0.8	9.75/1	40 3%
This is more realistic in a first-time tongue-tie; cannot be recommended as yet

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Dreamcasing	10/3	4	7/2	7/2	7/2
Macho Pride	13/2	7	13/2	6	13/2
Mutanaaseq	15/2	7	7	7	7
Merry Secret	13/2	6	6	6	6
Boarhunt	9	17/2	8	11/2	8
Sams Call	7	15/2	7	13/2	7
Final Account	9	9	9	9	17/2
Mutabaahy	10	11	9	10	10
Birdie Bowers	14	12	14	14	14
Zegos Surprise	16	14	14	14	14
Atrafan	12	12	12	12	11
Danah Star	25	22	20	25	22
Gran Roque	20	22	22	22	22
Beast Of Burden	40	25	28	28	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Atrafan

OR: 0.8 Form: 13.5 Odds: 1.7

2nd

Mutabaahy

12.7

OR: 0 Form: 10.6 Odds: 2.1

3rd

Final Account

10.1

OR: 1 Form: 6.6 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Dreamcasing

9.1

OR: 0.3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Boarhunt

7.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 7.8

17/2

Zegos Surprise

6.4

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 1.4

Sams Call

5.8

OR: 1 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Macho Pride

4.6

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Merry Secret

4.1

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Birdie Bowers

4.1

OR: 0.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.7

Mutanaaseq

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Gran Roque

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Danah Star

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Beast Of Burden

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Macho Pride	54	67	61
Sams Call	54	68	60
Final Account	54	67	59
Atrafan	53	67	59
Merry Secret	52	68	44
Dreamcasing	51	71	—
Birdie Bowers	51	65	55
Boarhunt	50	66	53
Mutabaahy	49	64	51
Zegos Surprise	47	67	53
Gran Roque	47	60	—
Mutanaaseq	46	70	—
Danah Star	45	64	62
Beast Of Burden	45	60	15

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mutabaahy	3d ago	Quick return
Birdie Bowers	9d ago	Quick return
Macho Pride	13d ago	Quick return
Merry Secret	13d ago	Quick return
Boarhunt	17d ago	Fit
Mutanaaseq	18d ago	Fit
Beast Of Burden	21d ago	Fit
Zegos Surprise	25d ago	Fit
Danah Star	25d ago	Fit
Gran Roque	25d ago	Fit
Final Account	35d ago	Fit
Sams Call	55d ago	Fresh
Atrafan	85d ago	Fresh
Dreamcasing	251d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.