Royal Ascot Form Study On attheraces.com Restricted Novice Stakes (Horses In Bands C/D) (GBB Race)

Lingfield (AW)

14:30

Date 2023-06-19

Distance 6f1y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,564

Winning Time 1m 12.32s (slow by 2.92s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Ten Card Brag (IRE) Saffie Osborne · Jamie Osborne	12/1	Won
2nd	Pressure's On (FR) Andrea Atzeni · Ed Dunlop	14/1	1.25
3rd	Bigger Than Giga (IRE) Benoit De La Sayette · Kevin Philippart De Foy	12/1	0.3
4th	This Time Maybe (GB) Pat Dobbs · Richard Hannon	10/1	0.3
5th	Xaarine (FR) Oisin Murphy · David Menuisier	9/1	0.2
6th	Lexington Belle (IRE) Kieran O'Neill · Alice Haynes	4/1	0.05
7th	Without Flaw (IRE) Hector Crouch · Archie Watson	20/1	0.3
8th	Latama (GB) William Buick · George Boughey	14/1	.5
9th	Zola Power (GB) David Egan · Richard Hughes	12/1	1
10th	Bated Breeze (IRE) Tom Queally · Eve Johnson Houghton	7/2F	2.75
11th	Quiet Affair (GB) Kevin Stott · Amy Murphy	9/2	4.25
12th	Elegant Elloise (IRE) Shariq Mohd · Alice Haynes	150/1	2.75

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
12 (3)	Lexington Belle Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-16	6.7	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Makes some appeal on pedigree and stable has a good record with 2yos first time out
1 (10)	Bated Breeze Bay J:Tom Queally T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Tom Queally T:Eve Johnson Houghton	133	—	64	-	79	-	24d	—	—	-11	4.4	0.75/1	4 25%
Improved on his second start but still well held; vulnerable to an improver
7 (5)	Quiet Affair Chestnut J:Kevin Stott T:Amy Murphy	J:Kevin Stott T:Amy Murphy	128	—	3	-	79	49	26d	—	—	-7	7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Promsing third on her Kempton debut last month; major player
9 (4)	Xaarine Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:David Menuisier	J:Oisin Murphy T:David Menuisier	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.2	2.25/1	10 10%
Stable not prolific with 2yo newcomers but had an impressive one at Sandown on Friday
4 (6)	This Time Maybe Bay J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-5	1.9	2.50/1	11 9%
Plenty to like on breeding and market support would be significant
6 (11)	Latama Chestnut J:William Buick T:George Boughey	J:William Buick T:George Boughey	128	—	7	-	50	-	14d	—	—	-6	2.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Unlucky when in midfield on her Thirsk debut and can do better, but drawn wide
3 (2)	Ten Card Brag Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	133	—	7	-	66	-	13d	—	—	-4	1.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Could only manage a midfield finish on his Leicester debut 13 days ago; may need more time
10 (7)	Bigger Than Giga Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	126	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Stable does have 2yo winners first time out and market should be informative
2 (12)	Pressures On Bay J:Andrea Atzeni T:Ed Dunlop	J:Andrea Atzeni T:Ed Dunlop	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Would be a rare winning newcomer for the yard and has the outside stall
5 (8)	Zola Power Chestnut J:David Egan T:Richard Hughes	J:David Egan T:Richard Hughes	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Stable can get them ready first time and worth a market check
8 (9)	Without Flaw Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Archie Watson	J:Hector Crouch T:Archie Watson	128	—	—	-	47	-	12d	—	—	-2	0.9	9.75/1	40 3%
Well beaten on her Newbury debut 12 days ago; will need to have improved quickly
11 (1)	Elegant Elloise Bay J:Shariq Mohd(7) T:Alice Haynes	J:Shariq Mohd(7) T:Alice Haynes	126	—	7	-	32	-	11d	—	—	-2	0.6	31.00/1	125 1%
Well-beaten on her Chelmsford debut 11 days ago; improvement required

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Lexington Belle	5/2	3	3	3	3
Bated Breeze	4	4	4	4	4
Quiet Affair	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Xaarine	9	9	9	9	10
This Time Maybe	10	10	10	10	11
Latama	8	9	17/2	17/2	9
Ten Card Brag	16	14	14	14	14
Bigger Than Giga	16	12	12	12	12
Pressures On	14	14	14	14	14
Zola Power	18	16	16	16	16
Without Flaw	40	28	28	28	28
Elegant Elloise	125	66	50	66	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Quiet Affair

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 4

9/2

2nd

Lexington Belle

6.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

5/2

3rd

Bated Breeze

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

Latama

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Xaarine

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

This Time Maybe

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Ten Card Brag

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Bigger Than Giga

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Pressures On

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Zola Power

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Without Flaw

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Elegant Elloise

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

125

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lexington Belle	—	—	—
Bated Breeze	—	79	—
Quiet Affair	—	79	49
Xaarine	—	—	—
This Time Maybe	—	—	—
Latama	—	50	—
Ten Card Brag	—	66	—
Bigger Than Giga	—	—	—
Pressures On	—	—	—
Zola Power	—	—	—
Without Flaw	—	47	—
Elegant Elloise	—	32	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Elegant Elloise	11d ago	Quick return
Without Flaw	12d ago	Quick return
Ten Card Brag	13d ago	Quick return
Latama	14d ago	Fit
Bated Breeze	24d ago	Fit
Quiet Affair	26d ago	Fit
Lexington Belle	—	—
Xaarine	—	—
This Time Maybe	—	—
Bigger Than Giga	—	—
Pressures On	—	—
Zola Power	—	—

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Latama	Mid-Pack
Ten Card Brag	Mid-Pack

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 6f1y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.