Follow attheraces On Twitter Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:00

Follow attheraces On Twitter Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-08-15

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,234

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (10)	Hildegard Bay J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	131	p	574733	62	69	58	21d	—	—	-5	13.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Improved for headgear and the AW with two good h'cap thirds; 1m2f should suit; interesting
7 (9)	Mass Consumption Grey J:Harry Russell T:Brian Ellison	J:Harry Russell T:Brian Ellison	133	—	66-2	64	72	-	75d	—	—	-3	12.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Sold for 22,000gns after second in Ripon maiden last time; chance on h'cap/stable/AW debut
1 (1)	Broctune Red Chestnut J:Alex Jary(7) T:Gillian Boanas	J:Alex Jary(7) T:Gillian Boanas	144	—	224833	67	73	54	17d	—	—	0	14.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Won 8 races from 1m-1m2f here, the latest in April; fair efforts since; could go well
6 (6)	Purple Ice Grey J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	136	p	881067	59	72	46	17d	—	—	-3	8.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Only win was over C&D in early May; lost his form since; others have stronger claims
3 (3)	Hooflepuff Bay J:Jason Hart T:Harriet Bethell	J:Jason Hart T:Harriet Bethell	141	v	752125	64	72	61	11d	—	—	+7	15.9	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Nine wins have all been at Wolverhampton; fair runs there last two starts; place chance
2 (2)	Iron Sheriff Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	142	—	414131	65	70	36	64d	—	—	+16	25.5	2.25/1	10 10%
Two 1m2f wins from last three turf starts; up 6lb and not as good on the AW
9 (4)	Coconut Bay Bay J:P J McDonald T:Tristan Davidson	J:P J McDonald T:Tristan Davidson	129	t	956364	52	71	-	71d	—	—	-4	4.2	2.25/1	10 10%
1m2f AW winner; fair form on turf recently; should fare even better back after a wind op
NR (5)	Rory Chestnut J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	140	p	252556	63	72	-	10d	—	—	-1	6.9	2.75/1	12 8%
Frustrating sort; all wins over 5f and has run well over 1m; not sure to be suited by 1m2f
11 (8)	Rampant Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Ewan Whillans	J:Phil Dennis T:Ewan Whillans	127	—	37875	58	65	-	10d	—	—	-2	4.2	3.75/1	16 6%
Unexposed; modest efforts in 2 handicaps on soft/heavy; needs to improve for switch to AW
10 (13)	We Still Believe b/br J:Ben Curtis T:Daragh Bourke	J:Ben Curtis T:Daragh Bourke	128	—	102240	51	70	47	12d	—	—	-2	6.8	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Below par last time, but chance on previous efforts, notably C&D 2nd to Purple Ice in May
NR (11)	Loom Large Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	139	—	07-07P	62	63	-	24d	—	—	-8	7.3	8.00/1	33 3%
Ex-Irish; not shown much for new yard; plenty to prove after being pulled up last time
13 (12)	Love Destiny Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	123	—	685655	46	67	50	17d	—	—	-2	0.9	9.75/1	40 3%
All wins at 7f, 4 of them on the AW; on a long losing run; now tries 1m2f for first time
12 (7)	Valstar Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	123	b	0-2664	54	69	-	18d	—	—	-2	2	9.75/1	40 3%
Ten-race maiden; placed in 7f/1m handicaps; needs to improve for longer trip on AW debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Hildegard	10/3	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Mass Consumption	9/2	9/2	4	9/2	9/2
Broctune Red	11/2	5	5/1	5	5
Purple Ice	15/2	13/2	7/1	15/2	7
Hooflepuff	10/1	9	17/2	9	9
Iron Sheriff	7	10	10	10	10
Coconut Bay	10	10	10	10	10
Rory	10	12	11	12	12
Rampant	16	14	16	14	14
We Still Believe	8	8	15/2	8/1	8
Loom Large	33	25	25	25	25
Love Destiny	40	28	28	28	28
Valstar	40	28	25	28/1	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Iron Sheriff

25.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 19.1 Odds: 2.7

2nd

Hooflepuff

15.9

OR: 3.5 Form: 10 Odds: 2.4

10/1

3rd

Broctune Red

14.4

OR: 4.3 Form: 6.1 Odds: 4

11/2

Hildegard

13.3

OR: 3 Form: 5.1 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Mass Consumption

12.9

OR: 3.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Purple Ice

8.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 3 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Loom Large

7.3

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 4.3

Rory

6.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.2

We Still Believe

6.8

OR: 0.3 Form: 4 Odds: 2.5

8/1

Coconut Bay

4.2

OR: 0.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.2

Rampant

4.2

OR: 2 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.6

Valstar

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Love Destiny

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Broctune Red	67	73	54
Iron Sheriff	65	70	36
Mass Consumption	64	72	—
Hooflepuff	64	72	61
Rory	63	72	—
Hildegard	62	69	58
Loom Large	62	63	—
Purple Ice	59	72	46
Rampant	58	65	—
Valstar	54	69	—
Coconut Bay	52	71	—
We Still Believe	51	70	47
Love Destiny	46	67	50

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rory	10d ago	Quick return
Rampant	10d ago	Quick return
Hooflepuff	11d ago	Quick return
We Still Believe	12d ago	Quick return
Broctune Red	17d ago	Fit
Purple Ice	17d ago	Fit
Love Destiny	17d ago	Fit
Valstar	18d ago	Fit
Hildegard	21d ago	Fit
Loom Large	24d ago	Fit
Iron Sheriff	64d ago	Fresh
Coconut Bay	71d ago	Fresh
Mass Consumption	75d ago	Fresh