At The Races App Market Movers Novice Stakes (GBB Race) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:00

At The Races App Market Movers Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Date 2023-09-28

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,104

Winning Time 1m 41.12s (slow by 3.42s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Sniper's Eye (FR) Jamie Spencer · David Simcock	8/11F	Won
2nd	Raqeebb (FR) P J McDonald · Simon & Ed Crisford	3/1	.75
3rd	Running Star (GB) David Probert · Hugo Palmer	22/1	1.75
4th	Smart Deal (GB) Kieran O'Neill · Alice Haynes	11/1	1.25
5th	Favorite Boy (GB) Frederick Larson · Michael Appleby	66/1	2.75
6th	Inspiritus (IRE) Cameron Noble · Roger Varian	11/2	2.5
7th	Notability (IRE) Trevor Whelan · Jennie Candlish	28/1	2.25
8th	First Cut (GB) Marco Ghiani · William Knight	80/1	5
9th	Kodi Hawk (GB) Cam Hardie · Derek Shaw	200/1	5.5
10th	Carat Gold (FR) Jonathan Fisher · Derek Shaw	250/1	4.25

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (7)	Snipers Eye Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:David Simcock	J:Jamie Spencer T:David Simcock	130	—	4425	82	91	46	47d	—	—	-22	29.4	0.18/1	8/11 58%
The form of his Newmarket efforts this summer gives him strong claims in this field
7 (3)	Raqeebb Grey J:P J McDonald T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:P J McDonald T:Simon & Ed Crisford	130	—	4	-	76	34	28d	—	—	-17	7.3	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Green on Chelmsford debut (1m) but kept on when the penny began to drop; can do better
4 (5)	Inspiritus Bay J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-9	3.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
75,000euros yearling; half-brother to fair 1m2f winner out of a useful mare; check betting
1 (4)	Smart Deal Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	134	h	4	-	80	45	35d	—	—	-6	2.1	2.75/1	12 8%
Low-level hurdle from but shaped quite nicely on Flat/stable debut five weeks ago; chance
8 (11)	Running Star Chestnut J:David Probert T:Hugo Palmer	J:David Probert T:Hugo Palmer	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
80,000gns foal; dam a Listed winner; yard going well; one to note for market confidence
NR (6)	Roman Princess Bay J:Jonathan Fisher(5) T:John Stimpson	J:Jonathan Fisher(5) T:John Stimpson	129	—	83	-	68	23	22d	—	—	0	4.1	8.00/1	33 3%
Some promise in both runs, placed over 7f here latest; needs more to win this though
6 (2)	Notability Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Jennie Candlish	J:Trevor Whelan T:Jennie Candlish	130	—	3	-	80	-	139d	—	—	+1	3.7	8.00/1	33 3%
Couldn't land a blow in steadily run race in France (1m) in May; sold 15,000euros since
2 (9)	Favorite Boy Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	130	—	3	-	65	-	8d	—	—	+2	3.5	19.75/1	80 1%
Remote third at Beverley on Flat debut ten days ago (1m2f, heavy); not easily recommended
3 (8)	First Cut Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	130	—	55	-	67	-	19d	—	—	-1	0.5	19.75/1	80 1%
Minor promise in two runs this summer; significant improvement required to win
5 (10)	Kodi Hawk Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	130	—	69	-	49	-	10d	—	—	-1	0.2	124.75/1	500 0%
Modest form in two AW runs over shorter this month; makes no appeal
11 (1)	Carat Gold Bay J:Jonathan Fisher(5) T:Derek Shaw	J:Jonathan Fisher(5) T:Derek Shaw	125	—	—	-	-	-	6d	—	—	-1	0.2	124.75/1	500 0%
200-1 and offered no short-term promise at Kempton last week

Horse	bet365	Coral
Snipers Eye	4/6	8/11
Raqeebb	11/4	11/4
Inspiritus	7	13/2
Smart Deal	10	12
Running Star	14	14/1
Roman Princess	33	22
Notability	33	33
Favorite Boy	80	80
First Cut	80	66/1
Kodi Hawk	500	200
Carat Gold	500	200

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Snipers Eye

29.4

OR: 8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 17.9

8/11

2nd

Raqeebb

7.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

11/4

3rd

Roman Princess

4.1

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.1

Notability

3.7

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.7

Inspiritus

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Favorite Boy

3.5

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.5

Smart Deal

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Running Star

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

14/1

First Cut

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Kodi Hawk

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

500

Carat Gold

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

500

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Snipers Eye	82	91	46
Raqeebb	—	76	34
Inspiritus	—	—	—
Smart Deal	—	80	45
Running Star	—	—	—
Roman Princess	—	68	23
Notability	—	80	—
Favorite Boy	—	65	—
First Cut	—	67	—
Kodi Hawk	—	49	—
Carat Gold	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Carat Gold	6d ago	Quick return
Favorite Boy	8d ago	Quick return
Kodi Hawk	10d ago	Quick return
First Cut	19d ago	Fit
Roman Princess	22d ago	Fit
Raqeebb	28d ago	Fit
Smart Deal	35d ago	Fit
Snipers Eye	47d ago	Fresh
Notability	139d ago	Long break
Inspiritus	—	—
Running Star	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.