quinnbet.com Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:45

quinnbet.com Handicap

Date 2023-10-06

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 27.89s (slow by 4.09s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Explorers Way (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	9/2	Won
2nd	Stoney Lane (GB) Lewis Edmunds · Simon Whitaker	12/1	4.5
3rd	Clotherholme (IRE) David Allan · Ann Duffield	10/1	0.2
4th	Tathmeen (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	18/1	.5
5th	Secret Daay (GB) Kieran O'Neill · David Thompson	14/1	1
6th	Van Zant (GB) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	100/30F	2.25
7th	Butterfly Island (IRE) Joanna Mason · Liam Bailey	50/1	.75
8th	Toptime (GB) Ben Curtis · Roy Bowring	7/1	2.25
9th	Cloud Queen (GB) Hollie Doyle · Ed Dunlop	6/1	1.25
10th	Qaabil (IRE) Tom Eaves · Tony Coyle	6/1	1.75
11th	Raffles Rebel (GB) Connor Beasley · Philip Kirby	14/1	0.05
12th	Little Finn (IRE) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	100/1	16

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (6)	Explorers Way Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	135	p	959619	52	68	43	17d	—	—	-4	11.9	0.75/1	4 25%
1m course winner last month but well held since, and this drop back to 7f may not be ideal
11 (3)	Van Zant Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	129	—	760-30	46	64	47	161d	—	—	-11	4.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Off since April but ran well over C&D in March, after a break; could have a say
6 (4)	Qaabil Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Tony Coyle	J:Tom Eaves T:Tony Coyle	131	—	248023	48	64	47	14d	—	—	-3	10.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Has modest strike-rate but signed off in Ireland with two good runs last month
9 (9)	Clotherholme Bay J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	131	hp	764388	48	65	-	51d	—	—	-6	4.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Disappointed on last two turf starts and his AW record is not compelling
8 (12)	Cloud Queen Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Ed Dunlop	J:Hollie Doyle T:Ed Dunlop	131	—	869379	50	63	41	22d	—	—	-6	4.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Placed off 5lb higher in August but two lesser efforts have followed and she's now 0-10
2 (7)	Toptime Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Roy Bowring	J:Ben Curtis T:Roy Bowring	134	—	8-7000	51	63	47	80d	—	—	-6	2.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Out of form this year; revival needed on first venture beyond 6f
5 (1)	Raffles Rebel Chestnut J:Connor Beasley T:Philip Kirby	J:Connor Beasley T:Philip Kirby	132	p	355-22	49	63	32	269d	—	—	-6	2.1	2.50/1	11 9%
Consistent on Tapeta last autumn/winter; may find 7f too sharp on first start after layoff
7 (10)	Stoney Lane Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Simon Whitaker	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Simon Whitaker	131	p	751830	48	62	45	18d	—	—	+1	6.8	3.25/1	14 7%
Battled well for surprise win at Wolverhampton in August and has been placed on turf since
12 (5)	Secret Daay Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:David Thompson	J:Kieran O'Neill T:David Thompson	129	b	000939	46	60	34	24d	—	—	-4	4.3	2.50/1	11 9%
Placed on turf in August and subsequent soft-ground defeat is excusable; not ruled out
3 (2)	Tathmeen Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	133	p	369508	50	67	65	25d	—	—	-4	1.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Not firing on all cylinders lately and has done all his winning over sprint trips
10 (11)	Butterfly Island Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Liam Bailey	J:Joanna Mason T:Liam Bailey	129	tv	467596	46	59	-	16d	—	—	-2	0.7	9.75/1	40 3%
Regressive filly who has been safely held in some recent classified races on turf
4 (8)	Little Finn Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	132	—	93060-	49	63	-	389d	—	—	0	1.2	24.75/1	100 1%
Absent since finishing last in 14-runner selling handicap on turf 13 months ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Explorers Way	4	4	4	4	4
Van Zant	9/2	9/2	4	9/2	9/2
Qaabil	6	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Clotherholme	7	7	7	7	15/2
Cloud Queen	8	8	8	8	8/1
Toptime	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2	9
Raffles Rebel	11	10	9	10	11
Stoney Lane	14	12	11	12	12
Secret Daay	10	11	11	11	9
Tathmeen	16	16	12	16	16
Butterfly Island	33	40	33	40	40
Little Finn	100	100	100	100	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Explorers Way

11.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 7 Odds: 4.4

2nd

Qaabil

10.1

OR: 0 Form: 6.5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

3rd

Stoney Lane

6.8

OR: 0 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1.7

Clotherholme

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Van Zant

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Cloud Queen

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Secret Daay

4.3

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.2

Toptime

2.8

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Raffles Rebel

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Tathmeen

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Little Finn

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.3

100

Butterfly Island

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Explorers Way	52	68	43
Toptime	51	63	47
Cloud Queen	50	63	41
Tathmeen	50	67	65
Raffles Rebel	49	63	32
Little Finn	49	63	—
Qaabil	48	64	47
Clotherholme	48	65	—
Stoney Lane	48	62	45
Van Zant	46	64	47
Secret Daay	46	60	34
Butterfly Island	46	59	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Qaabil	14d ago	Fit
Butterfly Island	16d ago	Fit
Explorers Way	17d ago	Fit
Stoney Lane	18d ago	Fit
Cloud Queen	22d ago	Fit
Secret Daay	24d ago	Fit
Tathmeen	25d ago	Fit
Clotherholme	51d ago	Fresh
Toptime	80d ago	Fresh
Van Zant	161d ago	Long break
Raffles Rebel	269d ago	Long break
Little Finn	389d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.