Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:30

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2023-10-17

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (12)	Clotherholme Bay J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	J:David Allan T:Ann Duffield	128	hp	643883	48	70	25	11d	—	—	-5	7.5	1.63/1	13/2 13%
It was a pleasing run here 11 days when staying on into third from off the pace
5 (5)	Elettaria Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:John Wainwright	J:Mark Winn(3) T:John Wainwright	133	p	494101	53	67	18	18d	—	—	+7	19.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Doubled her career tally when coming from off the to win cosily here 18 days ago
2 (11)	The Caltonian Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Linda Perratt	J:Joe Fanning T:Linda Perratt	135	b	663507	55	65	-	26d	—	—	-7	5.8	1.50/1	7 14%
It's been very modest stuff the last twice and now goes in blinkers; AW debut
8 (10)	Tathmeen Bay J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	129	p	695084	49	69	52	11d	—	—	-6	2.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Rarely seen beyond 6f but was close up behind Clotherholme when fourth over C&D
12 (8)	Van Zant Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Ruth Carr	J:Andrew Mullen T:Ruth Carr	126	—	60-306	46	67	50	11d	—	—	-6	2.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Never dangerous here 11 days ago after an early bump; likely to do better
7 (1)	Rockin Rosa Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	132	p	532198	54	68	54	21d	—	—	+2	10.6	2.13/1	17/2 11%
C&D winner but usual slow starts have held her back the last twice
3 (7)	See My Baby Jive Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Donald Whillans	J:Jason Hart T:Donald Whillans	134	b	113044	54	69	22	18d	—	—	-2	6.3	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Three wins on turf over 6f; third over C&D latest when running on after finding trouble
6 (9)	Cosa Sara Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	133	b	832146	53	66	-	14d	—	—	+2	10.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Five turf wins but her record on the AW (0-9) hardly bodes well
9 (6)	Rum Runner Bay J:Shane Gray T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Shane Gray T:Geoffrey Harker	128	—	215003	48	65	24	18d	—	—	0	6.9	3.25/1	14 7%
Classified winner on turf in August and again made the frame in a C&D handicap 18 days ago
4 (3)	Dandys Gold Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	134	p	930779	54	72	-	22d	—	—	-3	3.3	3.75/1	16 6%
Multiple winner but with a modest strike-rate in recent seasons and she's inconsistent
11 (2)	Miss Willows Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Simon Whitaker	J:Tom Eaves T:Simon Whitaker	126	t	594505	46	65	52	13d	—	—	-5	1.7	4.75/1	20 5%
Signs were more encouraging when fifth in a first-time tongue-tie over 6f at Catterick
1 (4)	Prince Hector Bay J:Paula Muir(3) T:Jessica Bedi	J:Paula Muir(3) T:Jessica Bedi	135	—	4697-7	55	63	-	286d	—	—	-1	2.2	6.00/1	25 4%
Placed here but 0-17 and makes trainer debut on first sighting since January

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Clotherholme	6	13/2	6	6	6
Elettaria	6	6	6	11/2	11/2
The Caltonian	5	7	7	7	7
Tathmeen	9	9	17/2	9	9
Van Zant	8	17/2	8	8	8
Rockin Rosa	8	17/2	8	8	15/2
See My Baby Jive	9	9	8	8	17/2
Cosa Sara	9	9	8	8	17/2
Rum Runner	14	11	10	10	10
Dandys Gold	16	12	11	12	12
Miss Willows	20	12	11	12	12
Prince Hector	25	22	20	22	22

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Elettaria

19.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 15 Odds: 3.3

11/2

2nd

Rockin Rosa

10.6

OR: 1 Form: 7.1 Odds: 2.5

17/2

3rd

Cosa Sara

10.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 7.1 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Clotherholme

7.5

OR: 0 Form: 3.9 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Rum Runner

6.9

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 1.9

See My Baby Jive

6.3

OR: 1 Form: 2.9 Odds: 2.4

17/2

The Caltonian

5.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 3.6

Dandys Gold

3.3

OR: 1 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.7

Van Zant

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Tathmeen

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

17/2

Prince Hector

2.2

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Miss Willows

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
The Caltonian	55	65	—
Prince Hector	55	63	—
Rockin Rosa	54	68	54
See My Baby Jive	54	69	22
Dandys Gold	54	72	—
Elettaria	53	67	18
Cosa Sara	53	66	—
Tathmeen	49	69	52
Clotherholme	48	70	25
Rum Runner	48	65	24
Van Zant	46	67	50
Miss Willows	46	65	52

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Clotherholme	11d ago	Quick return
Tathmeen	11d ago	Quick return
Van Zant	11d ago	Quick return
Miss Willows	13d ago	Quick return
Cosa Sara	14d ago	Fit
Elettaria	18d ago	Fit
See My Baby Jive	18d ago	Fit
Rum Runner	18d ago	Fit
Rockin Rosa	21d ago	Fit
Dandys Gold	22d ago	Fit
The Caltonian	26d ago	Fit
Prince Hector	286d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Tathmeen	Prominent
Clotherholme	Hold Up
Elettaria	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 3 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.