Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Newcastle (AW)

17:30

Date 2023-10-17

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3-5yo

Prize £4,104

Winning Time 1m 41.39s (slow by 4.39s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Reel Prospect (IRE) Daniel Tudhope · David O'Meara	12/1	Won
2nd	Ciara Pearl (GB) Luke Morris · Daniel & Claire Kubler	11/2	0.3
3rd	Rogue Warrior (IRE) Robert Havlin · Tom Clover	9/2	.5
4th	Flickering Flame (IRE) Hollie Doyle · James Tate	6/4F	.75
5th	Madam Florence (GB) Sam James · Grant Tuer	50/1	1.25
6th	Storm And Conquest (GB) Jack Mitchell · Simon & Ed Crisford	85/40	2.75
7th	Dazamay (GB) Andrew Mullen · Philip Kirby	300/1	4.75
8th	Hutcheson (GB) Ben Curtis · George Boughey	50/1	2.25

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (5)	Flickering Flame Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:James Tate	J:Hollie Doyle T:James Tate	125	—	3	-	76	42	21d	—	—	-17	11.9	0.44/1	7/4 36%
11-4 for a modest 1m AW maiden and finished close up despite signs of inexperience
4 (8)	Storm And Conquest Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-22	10	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Well bred; gelded ahead of belated debut and the market can guide
7 (3)	Rogue Warrior Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Tom Clover	J:Robert Havlin T:Tom Clover	125	—	23	-	81	-	104d	—	—	-6	11.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Twice placed over 1m2f during the summer and this isn't a strong race
3 (2)	Ciara Pearl Bay J:Luke Morris T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Luke Morris T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	130	—	21	64	72	10	12d	—	—	+8	20.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
It was a modest novice she won at Lingfield but she has some scope
2 (1)	Reel Prospect Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	131	—	3-4	-	83	-	15d	—	—	-2	3.7	3.75/1	16 6%
Beaten 10l here recently after an absence and will need to improve on that
1 (7)	Hutcheson Chestnut J:Ben Curtis T:George Boughey	J:Ben Curtis T:George Boughey	133	tp	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1	6.00/1	25 4%
Tailed off in two bumpers for James Owen (tongue tied for both)
8 (6)	Madam Florence Chestnut J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	123	—	8-	-	-	-	457d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Beaten about 12l in 7f novice in July 2022; best watched on belated reappearance
5 (4)	Dazamay Chestnut J:Andrew Mullen T:Philip Kirby	J:Andrew Mullen T:Philip Kirby	125	—	6	-	-	-	34d	—	—	-1	0.2	124.75/1	500 0%
125-1 when tailed off at Carlisle after losing lengths at the start; best watched for now

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Flickering Flame	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4
Storm And Conquest	13/8	13/8	6/4	13/8	13/8
Rogue Warrior	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Ciara Pearl	7	13/2	5	13/2	6
Reel Prospect	16	14	14	14	12
Hutcheson	25	22	25	25	25
Madam Florence	66	50	50	50	50
Dazamay	500	250	250	250	150

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ciara Pearl

20.6

OR: 3.5 Form: 13.5 Odds: 3.6

13/2

2nd

Flickering Flame

11.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 8.9

7/4

3rd

Rogue Warrior

11.5

OR: 0 Form: 6.5 Odds: 5

9/2

Storm And Conquest

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 10

13/8

Reel Prospect

3.7

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.6

Hutcheson

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Madam Florence

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Dazamay

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

500

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ciara Pearl	64	72	10
Flickering Flame	—	76	42
Storm And Conquest	—	—	—
Rogue Warrior	—	81	—
Reel Prospect	—	83	—
Hutcheson	—	—	—
Madam Florence	—	—	—
Dazamay	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Ciara Pearl	12d ago	Quick return
Reel Prospect	15d ago	Fit
Flickering Flame	21d ago	Fit
Dazamay	34d ago	Fit
Rogue Warrior	104d ago	Long break
Madam Florence	457d ago	Long break
Storm And Conquest	—	—
Hutcheson	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.