Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:00

Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-10-17

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 28.86s (slow by 5.06s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Likeashadow (IRE) Paul Mulrennan · Alan Brown	5/1	Won
2nd	Supreme Tenacity (IRE) Shane Gray · Phillip Makin	3/1F	0.3
3rd	Mister Gan (GB) Graham Lee · Craig Lidster	14/1	0.2
4th	Socialise (IRE) Rowan Scott · Nigel Tinkler	11/2	0.05
5th	Goldmine Girl (IRE) Sam James · Craig Lidster	9/1	.5
6th	Tigla (IRE) Andrew Mullen · Nigel Tinkler	18/1	2.5
7th	Red Iris (GB) Sean Kirrane · Tim Easterby	33/1	1
8th	Yeulan (IRE) Jonny Peate · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	40/1	0.2
9th	King Of Cali (IRE) Ben Curtis · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	16/1	0.3
10th	Fast Love (GB) David Allan · Tim Easterby	22/1	2.5
11th	Northern Cracksman (GB) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	100/30	1.5
12th	King For A Day (IRE) Tom Eaves · Craig Lidster	40/1	2.75

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (9)	Socialise Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	134	p	495544	54	57	38	15d	—	—	-12	6.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Trainer 0-80 with 2yos this season; this exposed maiden holds no more than each-way claims
8 (10)	Supreme Tenacity Bay J:Shane Gray T:Phillip Makin	J:Shane Gray T:Phillip Makin	131	tp	97723	51	63	43	10d	—	—	-6	12	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Better since entering nurseries and fitted with cheekpieces; been found the right race
1 (11)	Northern Cracksman Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	135	—	876	55	47	25	38d	—	—	-9	5.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Been gelded and undergone wind surgery, and is worth a look in the market
4 (3)	Likeashadow Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alan Brown	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alan Brown	134	—	9068	54	59	15	28d	—	—	-7	4.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Solid in market ahead of his C&D nursery debut but offered little in finishing well held
11 (1)	Goldmine Girl Bay J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	129	—	662044	49	61	23	20d	—	—	-7	4.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Didn't see out 1m last time and holds decent claims in a weak nursery
7 (2)	Mister Gan Bay J:Graham Lee T:Craig Lidster	J:Graham Lee T:Craig Lidster	131	t	7706	51	58	30	15d	—	—	-5	2.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Goldmine Girl looks his stable's number one but wouldn't be without hope in a weak race
6 (8)	Fast Love Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	132	t	843009	52	52	26	22d	—	—	-3	3	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Maiden who's gone backwards since handicapping and is tried in a first-time tongue-tie
3 (6)	King Of Cali Chestnut J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	134	—	9787	54	61	-	11d	—	—	-3	2.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Triple-figure prices for four runs; didn't see out 1m latterly and this is more realistic
12 (5)	Tigla Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Andrew Mullen T:Nigel Tinkler	125	—	000	45	60	-	10d	—	—	-4	1.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Huge prices and beaten a long way in three runs; Socialise looks her trainer's best chance
5 (7)	Red Iris Grey J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	133	—	8706	53	61	-	29d	—	—	-2	1.7	6.75/1	28 4%
Well held in four runs; needs to improve for going beyond 6f for the first time
9 (4)	Yeulan Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	130	—	0800	50	56	-	10d	—	—	-2	0.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Half-sister to two AW winners but King Of Cali looks her yard's best shout
10 (12)	King For A Day Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	129	p	068	49	62	-	11d	—	—	-2	0.8	9.75/1	40 3%
One of three saddled by Craig Lidster; worth a look in the market in first-time headgear

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Socialise	4	4	7/2	4	4
Supreme Tenacity	4	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Northern Cracksman	5	5	9/2	5	11/2
Likeashadow	6	6	13/2	6	6/1
Goldmine Girl	15/2	13/2	11/2	13/2	13/2
Mister Gan	12	11	9	11	12/1
Fast Love	14	12	14/1	12	14/1
King Of Cali	16	14	14	16	16
Tigla	16	16	12	16	16
Red Iris	28	22	22	22	25/1
Yeulan	28	28	28/1	25	25
King For A Day	40	28	25/1	25	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Supreme Tenacity

OR: 0.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

Socialise

6.2

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

3rd

Northern Cracksman

5.3

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4

11/2

Goldmine Girl

4.8

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Likeashadow

4.3

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Fast Love

OR: 0.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Mister Gan

2.4

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

King Of Cali

2.4

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Red Iris

1.7

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Tigla

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Yeulan

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

King For A Day

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Northern Cracksman	55	47	25
Socialise	54	57	38
Likeashadow	54	59	15
King Of Cali	54	61	—
Red Iris	53	61	—
Fast Love	52	52	26
Supreme Tenacity	51	63	43
Mister Gan	51	58	30
Yeulan	50	56	—
Goldmine Girl	49	61	23
King For A Day	49	62	—
Tigla	45	60	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Supreme Tenacity	10d ago	Quick return
Tigla	10d ago	Quick return
Yeulan	10d ago	Quick return
King Of Cali	11d ago	Quick return
King For A Day	11d ago	Quick return
Socialise	15d ago	Fit
Mister Gan	15d ago	Fit
Goldmine Girl	20d ago	Fit
Fast Love	22d ago	Fit
Likeashadow	28d ago	Fit
Red Iris	29d ago	Fit
Northern Cracksman	38d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.