BetUK. Home Of The ACCA-FENWA Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:20

BetUK. Home Of The ACCA-FENWA Handicap

Date 2023-10-17

Distance 1m2f42y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
11 (3)	Boldly Brown J:Daniel Tudhope T:George Boughey	J:Daniel Tudhope T:George Boughey	130	—	376	74	80	26	26d	—	—	-15	17.5	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Step back up in trip now handicapping should help and has been found the right race
4 (4)	Oh So Grand Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	135	—	41132	79	87	41	50d	—	—	+10	27.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Continued the progression latest; the return to Tapeta will be fine and she's shortlisted
8 (11)	Cancan In The Rain b/br J:Oisin Murphy T:Charlie Johnston	J:Oisin Murphy T:Charlie Johnston	132	—	431074	76	86	49	21d	—	—	+1	13.7	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Back in the groove last time, when finding this trip within range; player
2 (2)	Savrola Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	137	p	137524	77	88	62	13d	—	—	+2	14.2	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Consistent on the AW but enjoyed the run of the race latest and needs to find a bit more
6 (7)	Victory Bay J:Jason Hart T:Alan King	J:Jason Hart T:Alan King	132	p	-92777	72	89	68	20d	—	—	-1	10.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Leading claims on July's second here but inconsistent since; others are preferred
7 (9)	Forest Demon Bay J:Luke Morris T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Luke Morris T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	132	tp	325170	76	87	52	28d	—	—	+8	14.1	3.75/1	16 6%
Rain-softened ground may have been behind his latest effort; should do better
5 (8)	Whitefeathersfall Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	133	v	44-877	73	85	44	11d	—	—	+3	7	5.25/1	22 5%
Hasn't looked to see it out in three previous tries over this far; needs to settle
3 (10)	Radetsky Marsch Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	136	p	2-1550	80	83	58	26d	—	—	+8	12.1	6.00/1	25 4%
Three poor efforts on turf since a comeback win on Polytrack; never looked happy last time
12 (1)	Tabuk Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	129	p	351883	73	86	64	30d	—	—	+9	12.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Dundalk maiden winner over this trip in the spring; better back in cheekpieces last time
1 (12)	Flying Scotsman Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Ben Haslam	139	—	10-576	79	82	-	26d	—	—	+6	7.8	9.75/1	40 3%
Goes without headgear and this trip is a bare minimum on his Tapeta debut
9 (5)	Sense Of Worth Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	132	—	320070	72	83	73	18d	—	—	+6	6.7	49.75/1	200 1%
Has struggled badly for his new yard and has it all to prove currently
10 (6)	Ring Fenced Bay J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:Micky Hammond	J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:Micky Hammond	130	—	3-1590	70	72	17	10d	—	—	+7	7.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Has struggled in two runs back from a break for this yard; can't be recommended

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Boldly	13/8	15/8	15/8	7/4	7/4
Oh So Grand	4	4/1	4	4	7/2
Cancan In The Rain	6/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Savrola	7	13/2	11/2	13/2	7
Victory	7	7	13/2	7	7
Forest Demon	16	14	14/1	14	14
Whitefeathersfall	22	18/1	20/1	20	20
Radetsky Marsch	22	22	18/1	22	25
Tabuk	28	28	20	28	33/1
Flying Scotsman	40	33	40	33	33
Sense Of Worth	150	150	100	150	200
Ring Fenced	200	200/1	150	200	200

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Oh So Grand

27.4

OR: 7.3 Form: 15.1 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

Boldly

17.5

OR: 6 Form: 1.5 Odds: 10

15/8

3rd

Savrola

14.2

OR: 6.8 Form: 4.1 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Forest Demon

14.1

OR: 6.5 Form: 6 Odds: 1.6

Cancan In The Rain

13.7

OR: 6.5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Tabuk

12.7

OR: 5.8 Form: 6 Odds: 1

33/1

Radetsky Marsch

12.1

OR: 7.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.1

Victory

10.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Flying Scotsman

7.8

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ring Fenced

7.2

OR: 5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.1

200/1

Whitefeathersfall

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Sense Of Worth

6.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 1 Odds: 0.2

200

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Radetsky Marsch	80	83	58
Oh So Grand	79	87	41
Flying Scotsman	79	82	—
Savrola	77	88	62
Cancan In The Rain	76	86	49
Forest Demon	76	87	52
Boldly	74	80	26
Whitefeathersfall	73	85	44
Tabuk	73	86	64
Victory	72	89	68
Sense Of Worth	72	83	73
Ring Fenced	70	72	17

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Ring Fenced	10d ago	Quick return
Whitefeathersfall	11d ago	Quick return
Savrola	13d ago	Quick return
Sense Of Worth	18d ago	Fit
Victory	20d ago	Fit
Cancan In The Rain	21d ago	Fit
Boldly	26d ago	Fit
Radetsky Marsch	26d ago	Fit
Flying Scotsman	26d ago	Fit
Forest Demon	28d ago	Fit
Tabuk	30d ago	Fit
Oh So Grand	50d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m2f42y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.