BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:30

BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap

Date 2023-10-17

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (9)	Bold Territories Chestnut J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	134	v	562863	53	68	53	21d	—	—	-7	10.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Has done most recent racing over 7f but is fine at this trip; is one to consider
8 (6)	Mr Heinz Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Simon Whitaker	J:Cam Hardie T:Simon Whitaker	131	b	323691	50	66	52	11d	—	—	0	16.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Finally off the mark over C&D 11 days ago; far from certain to repeat the dose upped 4lb
6 (1)	Royal Prospect Bay J:Graham Lee T:Susan Corbett	J:Graham Lee T:Susan Corbett	132	t	485062	51	71	46	15d	—	—	-6	9.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Solid debut for his new yard when second to Pop Favorite over C&D a fortnight ago; player
3 (5)	Antagonize Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Bryan Smart	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Bryan Smart	134	—	052494	53	65	49	21d	—	—	-6	5.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Keen-going front-runner who's on the downgrade; better effort over C&D last time
1 (8)	Pop Favorite Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	135	b	631841	54	64	46	15d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+7	17.7	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Landed his third C&D win of the year, and fourth in total, a fortnight ago; played up 3lb
5 (7)	Bungley Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	133	—	-97068	52	63	45	19d	—	—	-5	2.7	2.50/1	11 9%
Has struggled this year, coming 13lb down the weights; hard to recommend
11 (3)	Distinction Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Mackie	J:Jason Hart T:John Mackie	130	p	234537	49	65	57	82d	—	—	-3	5.1	2.25/1	10 10%
Just a single win to his name after 42 starts; is fine on Tapeta but others appeal more
10 (10)	Gypsy Whisper Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	130	b	553740	49	67	37	19d	—	—	-3	2.3	4.25/1	18 6%
Been a while since she ran well on Tapeta and Pop Favorite looks her yard's best chance
4 (11)	Ice Shadow Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Alan Brown	J:Rowan Scott T:Alan Brown	134	b	314580	53	64	42	21d	—	—	0	4	4.75/1	20 5%
1m2f turf winner in the summer; had an irregular heartbeat when blowing out here latest
9 (4)	Raffles Rebel Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:Philip Kirby	J:Hollie Doyle T:Philip Kirby	130	p	55-220	49	65	-	11d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Longstanding, regressive maiden who never featured here last time; others stronger
7 (2)	Hot Scoop Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Sam England	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Sam England	132	tp	031047	51	64	38	24d	—	—	+2	4.6	8.00/1	33 3%
Former sprinter who's not as good now and has become inconsistent; stamina will be tested
12 (12)	Sea Girt Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	128	—	5849	50	69	-	18d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Again started a big price and achieved little on his handicap debut here recently

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Bold Territories	9/2	4	4	4	4
Mr Heinz	9/2	4	4	4	4
Royal Prospect	4	5	9/2	9/2	9/2
Antagonize	6	6	11/2	6	13/2
Pop Favorite	6	13/2	6	6	6
Bungley	10	9	9	9	11
Distinction	10	17/2	17/2	9	9
Gypsy Whisper	18	18	16	18	18
Ice Shadow	20	20	16	20	20
Raffles Rebel	33	28	25	28	28
Hot Scoop	33	28	25	28	28
Sea Girt	100	66	66	66	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Pop Favorite

17.7

OR: 1 Form: 13.6 Odds: 3.1

13/2

2nd

Mr Heinz

16.9

OR: 0 Form: 11.9 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Bold Territories

10.3

OR: 0.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 5

9/2

Royal Prospect

9.7

OR: 0.3 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Antagonize

5.6

OR: 0.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Distinction

5.1

OR: 0 Form: 2.7 Odds: 2.4

Hot Scoop

4.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0.8

Ice Shadow

OR: 0.8 Form: 2 Odds: 1.2

Bungley

2.7

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

Gypsy Whisper

2.3

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.4

Raffles Rebel

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Sea Girt

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Pop Favorite	54	64	46
Bold Territories	53	68	53
Antagonize	53	65	49
Ice Shadow	53	64	42
Bungley	52	63	45
Royal Prospect	51	71	46
Hot Scoop	51	64	38
Mr Heinz	50	66	52
Sea Girt	50	69	—
Distinction	49	65	57
Gypsy Whisper	49	67	37
Raffles Rebel	49	65	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mr Heinz	11d ago	Quick return
Raffles Rebel	11d ago	Quick return
Royal Prospect	15d ago	Fit
Pop Favorite	15d ago	Fit
Sea Girt	18d ago	Fit
Bungley	19d ago	Fit
Gypsy Whisper	19d ago	Fit
Bold Territories	21d ago	Fit
Antagonize	21d ago	Fit
Ice Shadow	21d ago	Fit
Hot Scoop	24d ago	Fit
Distinction	82d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.