Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:00

Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-10-20

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,873

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (11)	Tuscan Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	131	v	889462	68	88	10	10d	—	—	-6	16.2	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Went close off this mark at Leicester last week; due to go up 3lb in future; strong chance
10 (9)	Slippin Jimmy Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	128	p	842342	67	85	65	31d	—	—	+4	15.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Largely consistent this season, good second over C&D most recently; solid claims
5 (5)	Streak Lightning Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	134	—	605484	71	87	63	18d	—	—	-3	8.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Ties in closely with Showtime Mahomes on C&D running 18 days ago; remains nicely treated
6 (12)	Verona Star Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	132	tp	769939	69	84	49	18d	—	—	-2	10.2	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Behind two of these rivals over C&D last time; penultimate effort gives him place hopes
4 (3)	Showtime Mahomes Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	135	—	496513	72	84	64	18d	—	—	+7	18.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Creditable third over C&D last time; still unexposed at 7f; respected off same mark
3 (4)	Doctor Khan Junior Bay J:Harry Russell T:Geoff Oldroyd	J:Harry Russell T:Geoff Oldroyd	136	v	-01146	73	84	69	84d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	+7	16.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Respectable record since wearing a visor; may still have more to offer; one to consider
7 (6)	Alpine Sierra Brown J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	132	—	065351	69	84	-	17d	—	—	+11	18.4	2.50/1	11 9%
Has done his winning in Scottish turf events; return to AW presents a question mark
1 (8)	Engelbert Bay J:Stefano Cherchi T:James Ferguson	J:Stefano Cherchi T:James Ferguson	137	t	-53180	76	84	49	16d	—	—	+5	15.5	2.00/1	9 11%
Return to Newcastle may have positive effect; has progressive results at this course
9 (2)	Trabajo Detecho Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	131	p	212640	70	82	-	28d	—	—	+4	10.1	5.25/1	22 5%
Has form over 7f but all wins remain at 6f; not the percentage call
11 (1)	Destined Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	128	v	524406	67	84	63	17d	—	—	+2	6.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Looking a rather exposed 3yo now; new headgear needs to work well
NR (10)	Motagally Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	136	b	602006	73	81	48	27d	—	—	-3	11.6	8.00/1	33 3%
Ran well at York in May but has otherwise been far from consistent for current yard
12 (7)	Violeta Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Ben Haslam	J:Cam Hardie T:Ben Haslam	121	—	437457	60	84	-	32d	—	—	0	4.1	8.00/1	33 3%
The only maiden in this field but her solid Newcastle record is cause for some optimism

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tuscan	11/4	3	11/4	11/4	3
Slippin Jimmy	6	6	11/2	6	11/2
Streak Lightning	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Verona Star	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Showtime Mahomes	7	13/2	11/2	13/2	13/2
Doctor Khan Junior	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Alpine Sierra	11	11	11	11	11
Engelbert	9	15/2	8	15/2	8
Trabajo Detecho	20	20	22	22	22
Destined	22	22	22	14	22
Motagally	33	33	28	28	28
Violeta	33	33	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Showtime Mahomes

18.8

OR: 5.5 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

13/2

2nd

Alpine Sierra

18.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.1

3rd

Doctor Khan Junior

16.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 8 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Tuscan

16.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 5 Odds: 6.7

11/4

Slippin Jimmy

15.6

OR: 4.3 Form: 8 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Engelbert

15.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 5.9 Odds: 3.1

Motagally

11.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 4.3

Verona Star

10.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Trabajo Detecho

10.1

OR: 5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.6

Streak Lightning

8.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Destined

6.6

OR: 4.3 Form: 1 Odds: 1.4

Violeta

4.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Engelbert	76	84	49
Doctor Khan Junior	73	84	69
Motagally	73	81	48
Showtime Mahomes	72	84	64
Streak Lightning	71	87	63
Trabajo Detecho	70	82	—
Verona Star	69	84	49
Alpine Sierra	69	84	—
Tuscan	68	88	10
Slippin Jimmy	67	85	65
Destined	67	84	63
Violeta	60	84	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tuscan	10d ago	Quick return
Engelbert	16d ago	Fit
Alpine Sierra	17d ago	Fit
Destined	17d ago	Fit
Streak Lightning	18d ago	Fit
Verona Star	18d ago	Fit
Showtime Mahomes	18d ago	Fit
Motagally	27d ago	Fit
Trabajo Detecho	28d ago	Fit
Slippin Jimmy	31d ago	Fit
Violeta	32d ago	Fit
Doctor Khan Junior	84d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Trabajo Detecho	Mid-Pack
Showtime Mahomes	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.