BetMGM - Stay Golden With Responsible Play Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:55

BetMGM - Stay Golden With Responsible Play Handicap

Date 2023-11-14

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
12 (2)	Ratafia Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael Herrington	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael Herrington	130	—	438211	56	79	54	7d	—	—	-3	33	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Fast-improving for the grade; carries a 5lb penalty for last week's comfortable C&D win.
11 (8)	Keep Me Stable Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Linda Perratt	J:Callum Shepherd T:Linda Perratt	130	—	723004	57	69	51	19d	—	—	-5	7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Twice placed on turf (6f-7f); step back in a positive direction at Wolverhampton latest.
9 (11)	She's The Danger Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Roy Bowring	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Roy Bowring	130	—	906267	56	75	25	39d	—	—	-4	7.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Shown her best on turf at Doncaster (6f-7f); has refused to settle on her last two starts.
8 (9)	Violeta Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Ben Haslam	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Ben Haslam	131	p	745795	58	77	44	11d	—	—	-5	4.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Frustrating (0-15); easing in weights (& claimer ridden) on second start in cheekpeices.
5 (10)	Daisy Roots Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Adam West	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Adam West	132	p	333214	59	72	53	31d	—	—	+7	15.6	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Winner at Lingfield (1m; first-time cheekpieces) on penultimate start; sits 4lb higher.
1 (5)	Captain Corelli Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	134	—	8-0898	60	72	29	14d	—	—	-3	4.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Yet to win on AW (0-9); competes from an easing mark, bidding to work way back into form.
7 (3)	Paco's Pride Grey J:Jason Hart T:Daragh Bourke	J:Jason Hart T:Daragh Bourke	131	—	233342	58	75	27	24d	—	—	+6	11.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Consistent for R. Varian; narrowly beaten at Wolverhampton latest; player on stable debut.
3 (12)	Glory Call Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	132	—	815196	59	72	59	24d	—	—	+6	10.3	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Dual AW winner (6f-7f, Wolverhampton); likeable but probably just too high in handicap.
10 (1)	Kananga Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	130	—	705	57	70	33	256d	—	—	-1	2.6	9.75/1	40 3%
Returns to action after a 256-day absence; tough to know what to expect on handicap debut.
2 (4)	Moondial Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Katie Scott	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Katie Scott	133	—	314120	60	71	49	35d	—	—	+11	13.7	8.00/1	33 3%
Three wins, all over 7f, for the Kublers; near last winning mark on first go for K. Scott
4 (7)	Brazen Rascal Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Simon Whitaker	J:Ben Robinson T:Simon Whitaker	132	—	805	59	62	42	25d	—	—	0	3	9.75/1	40 3%
Marginal improvement in novices and maidens; could fare better for switch to handicapping.
NR (6)	New Tycoon Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Liam Bailey	J:Billy Garritty T:Liam Bailey	131	h	6-7650	58	68	-	42d	—	—	+1	2.3	19.75/1	80 1%
Still seeking a first win (0-7); struggled on recent stable debut (Ayr); the hood goes on.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Ratafia	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8
Keep Me Stable	11/2	6	6	6	6
She's The Danger	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Violeta	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Daisy Roots	8	17/2	8	8	8
Captain Corelli	10/1	10	10/1	11	11
Paco's Pride	16/1	16	16	16	14
Glory Call	20/1	20	20	20	20
Kananga	40	33	33	33	33
Moondial	33	33	33	33	33
Brazen Rascal	40	40	33	40	40
New Tycoon	66	66	SP	80	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ratafia

OR: 1.5 Form: 20.1 Odds: 11.4

11/8

2nd

Daisy Roots

15.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 11 Odds: 2.4

17/2

3rd

Moondial

13.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 10.5 Odds: 0.7

Paco's Pride

11.4

OR: 2 Form: 8 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Glory Call

10.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 7 Odds: 1.1

20/1

She's The Danger

7.1

OR: 1.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Keep Me Stable

OR: 1.8 Form: 1.9 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Violeta

4.9

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Captain Corelli

4.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Brazen Rascal

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Kananga

2.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

New Tycoon

2.3

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Captain Corelli	60	72	29
Moondial	60	71	49
Daisy Roots	59	72	53
Glory Call	59	72	59
Brazen Rascal	59	62	42
Violeta	58	77	44
Paco's Pride	58	75	27
New Tycoon	58	68	—
Keep Me Stable	57	69	51
Kananga	57	70	33
Ratafia	56	79	54
She's The Danger	56	75	25

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Ratafia	7d ago	Quick return
Violeta	11d ago	Quick return
Captain Corelli	14d ago	Fit
Keep Me Stable	19d ago	Fit
Paco's Pride	24d ago	Fit
Glory Call	24d ago	Fit
Brazen Rascal	25d ago	Fit
Daisy Roots	31d ago	Fit
Moondial	35d ago	Fit
She's The Danger	39d ago	Fit
New Tycoon	42d ago	Fit
Kananga	256d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.