Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:20

Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-11-17

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (3)	Upper Hand Bay J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	135	—	47623	60	67	38	15d	—	—	-5	14.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Looks interesting on his second at Yarmouth and he could kick on again back up in trip
4 (5)	Fariha Bay J:Adam Farragher(3) T:William Haggas	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:William Haggas	134	p	706	59	59	-	13d	—	—	-11	7.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Well-bred filly and it wouldn't be a surprise if she showed a lot more in first nursery
5 (7)	Mulciber Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	133	tp	056	58	65	35	41d	—	—	-11	7.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Unexposed colt but he needs improvement on his nursery/Tapeta debut; cheekpieces added
2 (9)	Hand Jive Bay J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	135	—	5745	60	65	36	22d	—	—	-9	6.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
In good hands and still early days but he needs improvement
8 (12)	Goldmine Girl Bay J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	124	—	620445	49	67	28	31d	—	—	-6	3.7	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Made bold bid when close fifth over C&D latest and he's respected off unchanged mark
NR (1)	Quiet Affair Chestnut J:Clifford Lee T:Amy Murphy	J:Clifford Lee T:Amy Murphy	135	tb	306694	60	67	42	2d	—	—	-14	9.5	3.25/1	14 7%
Better effort upped to 7f when close fourth at Kempton on Wednesday; in the mix
6 (10)	Polly The Rocket Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	133	—	36636	58	68	39	53d	—	—	0	6.4	2.75/1	12 8%
Has shown some promise but was well below form last time and others are more convincing
11 (8)	Balmanzor Bay J:Shane Gray T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Shane Gray T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	121	p	086569	46	66	30	22d	—	—	-4	1.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Beaten 9l in his last two nurseries (7f) and he needs to get back on track; headgear added
12 (2)	Factorforfurniture Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	121	p	00785	46	67	-	14d	—	—	-3	1.1	4.75/1	20 5%
Has not finished closer than 6l to a winner so far and he needs improvement back in trip
7 (4)	Mehigburn Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	126	—	568599	51	65	70	14d	—	—	-2	1	6.75/1	28 4%
Seven-race maiden who has yet to be placed and needs a transformation at this new trip
9 (6)	Yeulan Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Joanna Mason T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	121	p	08008	46	61	-	31d	—	—	-2	0.7	9.75/1	40 3%
Well held at big prices in all five runs and latest was in a C&D nursery; opposable
10 (11)	Red Iris Grey J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	121	—	870677	46	66	23	14d	—	—	-1	0.5	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Six-race maiden who has been well held here (7f/1m) in her last two starts; no appeal

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Upper Hand	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Fariha	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	4
Mulciber	7/2	7/2	10/3	10/3	7/2
Hand Jive	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Goldmine Girl	8	8	15/2	15/2	15/2
Quiet Affair	14	14	12	14	14
Polly The Rocket	12	12	11/1	12	12
Balmanzor	14/1	16	12	16	14
Factorforfurniture	20	20	18/1	20	20
Mehigburn	28	25	25/1	25	28
Yeulan	33	40	28	33	33
Red Iris	80/1	50	40	50	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Upper Hand

14.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Quiet Affair

9.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 7

3rd

Fariha

7.7

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.4

7/2

Mulciber

7.2

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Hand Jive

6.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Polly The Rocket

6.4

OR: 2 Form: 2.7 Odds: 1.7

Goldmine Girl

3.7

OR: 0 Form: 1 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Balmanzor

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Factorforfurniture

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Mehigburn

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Yeulan

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Red Iris

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Upper Hand	60	67	38
Hand Jive	60	65	36
Quiet Affair	60	67	42
Fariha	59	59	—
Mulciber	58	65	35
Polly The Rocket	58	68	39
Mehigburn	51	65	70
Goldmine Girl	49	67	28
Balmanzor	46	66	30
Factorforfurniture	46	67	—
Yeulan	46	61	—
Red Iris	46	66	23

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Quiet Affair	2d ago	Quick return
Fariha	13d ago	Quick return
Factorforfurniture	14d ago	Fit
Mehigburn	14d ago	Fit
Red Iris	14d ago	Fit
Upper Hand	15d ago	Fit
Hand Jive	22d ago	Fit
Balmanzor	22d ago	Fit
Goldmine Girl	31d ago	Fit
Yeulan	31d ago	Fit
Mulciber	41d ago	Fit
Polly The Rocket	53d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.