Stay In Control At BetUK Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:40

Stay In Control At BetUK Handicap

Date 2023-11-17

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
NR (5)	Stone Of Destiny Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Michael Appleby	J:NON-RUNNER T:Michael Appleby	118	—	652236	68	-	-	14d	—	—	-39	30.6	—	—
On long losing run and he's not made a serious impact in his last two runs; down the list
6 (10)	Brooklyn Nine Nine Bay J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	131	p	2-1284	81	101	46	68d	—	—	-7	19.3	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Lightly raced 3yo who was an eyecatcher in a big field at York (5f) last time; dangerous
2 (8)	Bergerac Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	135	b	880002	85	100	80	7d	—	—	+1	19	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Turned things around with a close call over C&D last week; big player off same mark
4 (9)	Dickieburd Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Craig Lidster	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Craig Lidster	134	—	168461	84	96	72	7d	—	—	+10	21.8	1.25/1	6 17%
Resumed his progress when making all over 6f here last week; respected under penalty
10 (11)	Treacherous Bay J:Luke Morris T:Ed de Giles	J:Luke Morris T:Ed de Giles	126	—	759243	76	99	81	10d	—	—	+5	14.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Close up in his last three runs including over C&D latest; in the thick of things again
9 (4)	Digital Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	126	—	666617	76	96	84	15d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+7	15.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Won a claimer last month but he faded back in a handicap last time; others preferred
7 (2)	Pockley Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	131	—	1560R1	81	95	87	10d	—	—	+12	18.6	2.50/1	11 9%
Recorded his sixth course win when scoring over C&D ten days ago; respected under penalty
12 (6)	Ramon Di Loria Chestnut J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Ewan Whillans	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Ewan Whillans	116	—	035033	66	97	88	7d	—	—	+5	11.4	2.75/1	12 8%
Placed in C&D handicaps in his last two starts and has each-way claims again
1 (1)	Strong Johnson Bay J:Jason Hart T:Paul Midgley	J:Jason Hart T:Paul Midgley	136	—	201081	86	97	79	10d	—	—	+18	23.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Has won three of his last seven starts including over C&D latest; respected under penalty
3 (12)	Venturous Chestnut J:Lewis Edmunds T:David & Nicola Barron	J:Lewis Edmunds T:David & Nicola Barron	135	—	844690	85	98	-	59d	—	—	+5	10.1	3.75/1	16 6%
Smart in his prime but last win was 20 months ago and he's been on the downgrade this year
8 (3)	Princess Karine Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Bryan Smart	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Bryan Smart	129	—	146214	79	97	-	48d	—	—	+13	18.1	3.75/1	16 6%
Reliable 4yo but she's never won off mark this high and others look stronger
5 (7)	Be Proud Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	132	p	260019	82	99	52	20d	—	—	+12	16.2	6.00/1	25 4%
Three wins in 2023 but he's not easy to predict and was tailed off latest; risks attached

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Stone Of Destiny	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Brooklyn Nine Nine	5/2	11/4	5/2	11/4	11/4
Bergerac	4	4	4	4	9/2
Dickieburd	6	6	6	6	6
Treacherous	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Digital	9	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2
Pockley	10	11	11	11	11
Ramon Di Loria	12	12	12	12	12
Strong Johnson	18	14	14	14	14
Venturous	16	16	14	16	14
Princess Karine	14	16	14	16	16
Be Proud	25	22	16	22	22

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Stone Of Destiny

30.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 6.1 Odds: 20

—

2nd

Strong Johnson

23.6

OR: 9 Form: 13 Odds: 1.6

3rd

Dickieburd

21.8

OR: 8.5 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

Brooklyn Nine Nine

19.3

OR: 7.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 8

11/4

Bergerac

OR: 8.8 Form: 5 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Pockley

18.6

OR: 7.8 Form: 9 Odds: 1.9

Princess Karine

18.1

OR: 7.3 Form: 9.5 Odds: 1.4

Be Proud

16.2

OR: 8 Form: 7 Odds: 1.2

Digital

15.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 7 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Treacherous

14.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Ramon Di Loria

11.4

OR: 4 Form: 5.7 Odds: 1.7

Venturous

10.1

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Strong Johnson	86	97	79
Bergerac	85	100	80
Venturous	85	98	—
Dickieburd	84	96	72
Be Proud	82	99	52
Brooklyn Nine Nine	81	101	46
Pockley	81	95	87
Princess Karine	79	97	—
Treacherous	76	99	81
Digital	76	96	84
Stone Of Destiny	68	—	—
Ramon Di Loria	66	97	88

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bergerac	7d ago	Quick return
Dickieburd	7d ago	Quick return
Ramon Di Loria	7d ago	Quick return
Treacherous	10d ago	Quick return
Pockley	10d ago	Quick return
Strong Johnson	10d ago	Quick return
Stone Of Destiny	14d ago	Fit
Digital	15d ago	Fit
Be Proud	20d ago	Fit
Princess Karine	48d ago	Fresh
Venturous	59d ago	Fresh
Brooklyn Nine Nine	68d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.