Virgin Bet Fives Handicap (London Sprint Series Qualifier)

Kempton (AW)

16:55

Date 2024-04-06

Distance 6f

Class Class 3

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £10,308

Winning Time 1m 11.44s (slow by 0.34s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Ferrous (IRE) David Probert · Jack Channon	11/2	Won
2nd	Intervention (GB) Cieren Fallon · Michael Appleby	10/1	2.75
3rd	Exalted Angel (FR) Pierre-Louis Jamin · K R Burke	9/1	1.75
4th	Knebworth (GB) Ethan Jones · Richard Hughes	3/1	0.1
5th	Fresh (GB) Daniel Tudhope · James Fanshawe	11/1	2.75
6th	Azure Angel (GB) James Doyle · Roger Varian	11/4F	.5
7th	Rebel Path (FR) Marco Ghiani · Stuart Williams	25/1	1.25
8th	Strong Power (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	66/1	2.5
9th	Rathbone (GB) Daniel Muscutt · Michael Herrington	66/1	.75
10th	Watchya (GB) Neil Callan · George Baker	16/1	.75
11th	Good Earth (IRE) Connor Planas · Michael Herrington	66/1	1.5
12th	Desert Cop (GB) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	11/1	2.5

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (10)	Azure Angel Chestnut J:James Doyle T:Roger Varian	J:James Doyle T:Roger Varian	133	—	1/41-1	93	112	82	46d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+10	32.4	0.63/1	5/2 29%
4-4 on AW; created a positive impression on her reappearance; 4lb rise fair; more to come
8 (2)	Knebworth Bay J:Ethan Jones(7) T:Richard Hughes	J:Ethan Jones(7) T:Richard Hughes	128	p	422-21	88	108	89	13d	—	—	-3	14.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Two good runs last month, chasing home Ferrous before a Doncaster win; in the mix again
5 (11)	Ferrous Grey J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	130	—	3159-1	90	110	69	28d	—	—	+11	23.6	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Looked an improved performer when winning at Wolverhampton four weeks ago (strong form)
7 (3)	Exalted Angel Bay J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:K R Burke	J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:K R Burke	129	—	6-9365	89	110	88	8d	—	—	+4	11.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
On a long losing run but down in the weights and retains ability; should go well
1 (12)	Desert Cop Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	137	—	60706-	97	111	57	185d	—	—	+7	13.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Chance on best 2023 form; yard going well; overall record is unconvincing; drawn widest
4 (6)	Intervention Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Michael Appleby	J:Cieren Fallon T:Michael Appleby	132	p	364482	92	108	88	8d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+11	17.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Fully exposed but still getting better judged on latest Lingfield second; 2lb higher today
2 (7)	Fresh Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Tudhope T:James Fanshawe	135	t	05600-	95	110	-	150d	—	—	+7	13	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Beaten in this race on return in the last 3 seasons; essentially disappointing last year
9 (9)	Watchya Grey J:Neil Callan T:George Baker	J:Neil Callan T:George Baker	127	—	45050-	87	106	79	150d	—	—	+6	10.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Below best in November latest; down weights and should come good sooner rather than later
12 (8)	Strong Power Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	125	p	898-96	85	106	74	13d	—	—	+7	9.2	10.00/1	40/1 2%
New yard should find races for him but perhaps not one so deep as this
10 (4)	Rebel Path Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	127	—	21/30	87	102	49	28d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+8	9.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Neither run for current yard suggests he's up to defying this mark; needs to settle better
6 (1)	Good Earth Bay J:Connor Planas(3) T:Michael Herrington	J:Connor Planas(3) T:Michael Herrington	129	—	80100-	89	108	69	196d	—	—	+14	15.1	12.50/1	50/1 2%
He's done well for this yard but last year's wins came over 5f and he's back from a break
11 (5)	Rathbone Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Michael Herrington	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Michael Herrington	127	—	71100-	87	108	42	155d	—	—	+16	17.6	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Won twice last September; returns from 5-month break on a tough mark; usual headgear off

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Azure Angel	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Knebworth	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Ferrous	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Exalted Angel	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Desert Cop	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Intervention	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Fresh	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Watchya	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Strong Power	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Rebel Path	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Good Earth	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Rathbone	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Azure Angel

32.4

OR: 10.8 Form: 15 Odds: 6.7

5/2

2nd

Ferrous

23.6

OR: 10 Form: 10 Odds: 3.6

5/1

3rd

Rathbone

17.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 8 Odds: 0.3

66/1

Intervention

17.2

OR: 10.5 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

11/1

Good Earth

15.1

OR: 9.8 Form: 5 Odds: 0.4

50/1

Knebworth

14.5

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

7/2

Desert Cop

13.7

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Fresh

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

11/1

Exalted Angel

11.9

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Watchya

10.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Rebel Path

9.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

50/1

Strong Power

9.2

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Desert Cop	97	111	57
Fresh	95	110	—
Azure Angel	93	112	82
Intervention	92	108	88
Ferrous	90	110	69
Exalted Angel	89	110	88
Good Earth	89	108	69
Knebworth	88	108	89
Watchya	87	106	79
Rebel Path	87	102	49
Rathbone	87	108	42
Strong Power	85	106	74

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Exalted Angel	8d ago	Quick return
Intervention	8d ago	Quick return
Knebworth	13d ago	Quick return
Strong Power	13d ago	Quick return
Ferrous	28d ago	Fit
Rebel Path	28d ago	Fit
Azure Angel	46d ago	Fresh
Fresh	150d ago	Long break
Watchya	150d ago	Long break
Rathbone	155d ago	Long break
Desert Cop	185d ago	Long break
Good Earth	196d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Knebworth	Prominent
Strong Power	Mid-Pack

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.