Hudson Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:30

Hudson Handicap

Date 2024-07-27

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 59.49s (slow by 1.99s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Three Beauz (GB) Dylan Hogan · Rebecca Menzies	18/1	Won
2nd	Musical Diva (IRE) David Nolan · David O'Meara	5/2F	.75
3rd	She'sashambles (IRE) Joe Fanning · Phillip Makin	16/1	0.3
4th	Forever Eighteen (IRE) Faye McManoman · Nigel Tinkler	4/1	0.1
5th	Stallone (IRE) Rhys Elliott · Michael Dods	6/1	0.3
6th	Henery Hawk (GB) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	7/2	0.3
7th	Never This Way (IRE) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	16/1	0.2
8th	Hard Nut (IRE) Jonny Peate · Linda Perratt	22/1	3.25
9th	Furnicoe (IRE) Hayley Turner · Michael Appleby	80/1	.5
10th	Grandad Bob (IRE) Ben Robinson · Tristan Davidson	8/1	3.25
11th	Brazen Belle (GB) Andrew Breslin · Colin Teague	80/1	10

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (8)	Forever Eighteen Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	127	p	-35057	51	68	49	6d	—	—	-14	7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Step up to 7f didn't help latest and has a first crack at 5f; switch from turf may help
4 (7)	Musical Diva Bay J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	134	v	364672	58	69	59	9d	—	—	-5	12	1.13/1	9/2 18%
On a workable mark after a stint on turf; back to form last time and holds obvious claims
1 (6)	Henery Hawk Bay J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	137	—	555887	57	67	65	20d	—	—	-12	7.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
5lb below his last successful mark following a spell on turf; this easier back on Tapeta
5 (5)	Stallone Bay J:Rhys Elliott(7) T:Michael Dods	J:Rhys Elliott(7) T:Michael Dods	133	v	193894	53	70	61	11d	—	—	-9	6.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Better on turf last time; return to Tapeta is an obvious plus; one of the likelier winners
3 (10)	Grandad Bob Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:Tristan Davidson	J:Ben Robinson T:Tristan Davidson	135	t	86-764	55	61	-	10d	—	—	-4	3.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
More hopeful back from a second round of wind surgery latest, albeit he didn't find much
2 (2)	Never This Way Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	136	h	066890	56	69	55	26d	—	—	-4	3.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Ran fairly from the front over C&D in the spring off a higher mark; worth a market check
6 (3)	Three Beauz Brown J:Dylan Hogan T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Dylan Hogan T:Rebecca Menzies	133	t	70-990	53	64	-	21d	—	—	-4	2.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Maiden who's regressed sharply; previous Tapeta runs were solid but she has a lot to prove
9 (9)	Hard Nut Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	126	e/s	743076	46	66	55	24d	—	—	-3	2.5	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Nothing like the horse he was and has his good and bad days now; capable if in the mood
11 (1)	She'sashambles Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Phillip Makin	J:Joe Fanning T:Phillip Makin	125	—	726-00	49	62	55	11d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Poor in two runs back this summer, latterly when a long way behind Stallone
10 (4)	Furnicoe Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Michael Appleby	J:Hayley Turner T:Michael Appleby	126	p	599000	46	65	46	44d	—	—	-2	0.8	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Longstanding maiden; struggled since back from six months off; would be a surprise winner
8 (11)	Brazen Belle Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Colin Teague	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Colin Teague	127	—	05560/	47	68	-	673d	—	—	-2	0.6	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Hasn't been seen in the best part of two years and far too much to prove

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Forever Eighteen	3/1	3/1	3/1	10/3	10/3
Musical Diva	7/2	9/2	4/1	9/2	4/1
Henery Hawk	7/2	10/3	3/1	10/3	3/1
Stallone	11/2	5/1	4/1	5/1	4/1
Grandad Bob	10/1	12/1	11/1	12/1	11/1
Never This Way	11/1	11/1	11/1	10/1	11/1
Three Beauz	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Hard Nut	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
She'sashambles	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	18/1
Furnicoe	66/1	50/1	66/1	40/1	40/1
Brazen Belle	100/1	50/1	80/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Musical Diva

OR: 2 Form: 5 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Henery Hawk

7.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

Forever Eighteen

OR: 0.3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 6.2

10/3

Stallone

6.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Never This Way

3.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

11/1

Grandad Bob

3.2

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Three Beauz

2.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Hard Nut

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.6

18/1

She'sashambles

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Furnicoe

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

66/1

Brazen Belle

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Musical Diva	58	69	59
Henery Hawk	57	67	65
Never This Way	56	69	55
Grandad Bob	55	61	—
Stallone	53	70	61
Three Beauz	53	64	—
Forever Eighteen	51	68	49
She'sashambles	49	62	55
Brazen Belle	47	68	—
Hard Nut	46	66	55
Furnicoe	46	65	46

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Forever Eighteen	6d ago	Quick return
Musical Diva	9d ago	Quick return
Grandad Bob	10d ago	Quick return
Stallone	11d ago	Quick return
She'sashambles	11d ago	Quick return
Henery Hawk	20d ago	Fit
Three Beauz	21d ago	Fit
Hard Nut	24d ago	Fit
Never This Way	26d ago	Fit
Furnicoe	44d ago	Fit
Brazen Belle	673d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.