Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:30

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2024-09-03

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 1m 39.46s (slow by 1.76s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Balqaa (GB) Jason Hart · Stella Barclay	15/8F	Won
2nd	Shaka (GB) Elle-May Croot · Ivan Furtado	10/1	1.5
3rd	Rainbow Mirage (GB) Laura Pearson · Shaun Lycett	150/1	1
4th	Eagle Landed (GB) Clifford Lee · J R Jenkins	17/2	0.05
5th	Miss Billie (GB) Silvestre De Sousa · Michael Wigham	16/1	0.1
6th	Top Button (IRE) Marco Ghiani · Stuart Williams	11/2	3.25
7th	Storm Asset (GB) Alistair Rawlinson · Derek Shaw	11/1	1
8th	Back From Dubai (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Kevin Frost	5/1	.5
9th	Mist Rollin In (GB) Luke Morris · Declan Carroll	7/1	.5
10th	Inexplicable (IRE) Harry Russell · Antony Brittain	33/1	1.25
11th	Lady's Charm (GB) Ethan Tindall · Brian Rothwell	150/1	20

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (8)	Balqaa Bay J:Jason Hart T:Stella Barclay	J:Jason Hart T:Stella Barclay	132	—	697743	49	71	55	8d	—	—	-21	14.4	0.38/1	6/4 40%
Modest strike-rate but good efforts in just two starts here, not clear run over C&D latest
2 (7)	Top Button Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	136	t	672521	53	69	56	50d	—	—	+5	20.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Off the mark with a 7f classified win on AW in July; needs to show he's as good over 1m
1 (6)	Back From Dubai Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Kevin Frost	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Kevin Frost	136	—	258074	53	69	50	8d	—	—	-7	3.8	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Multiple winner here; well treated and best effort for a while when 4th over C&D last week
5 (9)	Mist Rollin In b/br J:Luke Morris T:Declan Carroll	J:Luke Morris T:Declan Carroll	131	b	79-328	53	62	-	44d	—	—	-6	3.3	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Improved for handicaps and blinkers; good 2nd on turf in June; well held at 1m1f since
4 (1)	Shaka Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	132	—	3U7524	49	65	51	38d	—	—	-3	5.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
0-14 but has run well on last 2 starts and looks worth another go at 1m
12 (3)	Eagle Landed Bay J:Clifford Lee T:J R Jenkins	J:Clifford Lee T:J R Jenkins	125	—	-74254	47	63	56	52d	—	—	-3	4.6	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Close up in 1m events on Tapeta and Polytrack for previous yard; not far away back on AW
6 (12)	Storm Asset Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Derek Shaw	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Derek Shaw	129	—	228094	46	68	61	23d	—	—	-3	2.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Has C&D form; dropped to favourable mark and signs last time of emerging from quiet spell
9 (4)	Miss Billie Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Michael Wigham	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Michael Wigham	129	—	990467	46	60	48	28d	—	—	-4	1.4	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Had few chances; seemed to appreciate Tapeta when staying-on 4th in July; course debut
7 (5)	Inexplicable gr/b J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	J:Harry Russell T:Antony Brittain	129	tv	140379	46	66	59	75d	—	—	-1	2.5	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Ten Tapeta wins, including over C&D; below best when last seen in June
8 (2)	Rainbow Mirage Chestnut J:Laura Pearson T:Shaun Lycett	J:Laura Pearson T:Shaun Lycett	129	b	806958	46	65	29	12d	—	—	-2	0.6	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Four Polytrack wins but has plenty to prove on Tapeta and soundly beaten in two C&D starts
10 (11)	Lady's Charm Brown J:Ethan Tindall(7) T:Brian Rothwell	J:Ethan Tindall(7) T:Brian Rothwell	129	—	00/60	46	49	-	43d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Modest form in just 4 starts since making debut in August 2022; others clearly offer more
NR (10)	Nasneen Chestnut J:NON-RUNNER T:Ian Williams	J:NON-RUNNER T:Ian Williams	128	—	766635	50	60	37	6d	—	—	—	2.1	—	—
Seemed to stay 1m on turf in July; no impact over 6f since; worth another go at this trip

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Balqaa	6/4	5/4	6/4
Top Button	9/2	9/2	9/2
Back From Dubai	13/2	7/1	7/1
Mist Rollin In	9/1	17/2	17/2
Shaka	10/1	9/1	9/1
Eagle Landed	10/1	10/1	10/1
Storm Asset	16/1	16/1	16/1
Miss Billie	16/1	16/1	18/1
Inexplicable	25/1	25/1	28/1
Rainbow Mirage	80/1	50/1	80/1
Lady's Charm	150/1	100/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Top Button

20.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 15 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

Balqaa

14.4

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 11.4

6/4

3rd

Shaka

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 3.2 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Eagle Landed

4.6

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Back From Dubai

3.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Mist Rollin In

3.3

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Inexplicable

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1

28/1

Storm Asset

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 1 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Nasneen

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0

—

Miss Billie

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Rainbow Mirage

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

80/1

Lady's Charm

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Top Button	53	69	56
Back From Dubai	53	69	50
Mist Rollin In	53	62	—
Nasneen	50	60	37
Balqaa	49	71	55
Shaka	49	65	51
Eagle Landed	47	63	56
Storm Asset	46	68	61
Miss Billie	46	60	48
Inexplicable	46	66	59
Rainbow Mirage	46	65	29
Lady's Charm	46	49	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Nasneen	6d ago	Quick return
Balqaa	8d ago	Quick return
Back From Dubai	8d ago	Quick return
Rainbow Mirage	12d ago	Quick return
Storm Asset	23d ago	Fit
Miss Billie	28d ago	Fit
Shaka	38d ago	Fit
Lady's Charm	43d ago	Fit
Mist Rollin In	44d ago	Fit
Top Button	50d ago	Fresh
Eagle Landed	52d ago	Fresh
Inexplicable	75d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 5 draws with historical results at this course and distance.