Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Nursery Handicap

Southwell (AW)

15:05

Date 2024-09-03

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 1m 14.01s (slow by 1.81s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	River Blackwater (GB) Mark Winn · David O'Meara	25/1	Won
2nd	Monticristo Boy (IRE) Silvestre De Sousa · Nigel Tinkler	5/1	1.25
3rd	Ellomate (IRE) Finley Marsh · Richard Hughes	5/2F	0.2
4th	Fallen Soldier (IRE) Jason Hart · John & Sean Quinn	9/1	0.3
5th	Indy's Angel (GB) Aiden Brookes · Philip Kirby	25/1	0.1
6th	Emporess (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Rod Millman	16/1	.75
7th	Gold Black (FR) Billy Garritty · Richard Fahey	13/2	0.2
8th	Deal Maker (GB) P J McDonald · Charlie Johnston	11/1	.5
9th	Brooke Winder (IRE) William Pyle · Craig Lidster	9/2	0.3
10th	Layaali (IRE) Luke Morris · John Butler	50/1	.75
11th	Water Music (GB) George Wood · Harry Eustace	16/1	0.2

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (10)	Ellomate Bay J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	135	p	37452	65	70	50	27d	—	—	-10	17.8	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Better since handicapping in cheekpieces; trainer 5-20 with 2yos here; one to consider
5 (9)	Brooke Winder Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Craig Lidster	J:William Pyle(5) T:Craig Lidster	134	—	4464	64	71	-	46d	—	—	-8	7.9	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Taken time for the penny to drop; 2lb lower mark won't hurt under experienced 5lb claimer
12 (6)	Monticristo Boy Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Nigel Tinkler	123	—	580	53	70	-	59d	—	—	-9	4.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Half-brother to four-time Tapeta winner Major Gatsby; can do better on his AW debut
7 (7)	Gold Black Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	131	p	479	61	68	-	34d	—	—	-6	6.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Perhaps headgear will do the trick on this handicap/AW debut but he's hard to recommend
2 (5)	Fallen Soldier Bay J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John & Sean Quinn	136	—	858	66	71	-	45d	—	—	-2	6.5	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Looked a slow learner in three 5f runs in July but dam improved with time; market useful
1 (3)	Water Music Bay J:George Wood T:Harry Eustace	J:George Wood T:Harry Eustace	137	—	085	67	64	31	53d	—	—	0	5.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Trainer is 2-6 with 2yos here but would want to see some support back from a break
6 (11)	Emporess Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Rod Millman	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Rod Millman	134	—	5348	64	69	47	34d	—	—	0	6.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Well-supported favourite on her nursery debut a month ago; retains a bit of potential
8 (1)	Deal Maker Bay J:P J McDonald T:Charlie Johnston	J:P J McDonald T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	038440	60	70	15	25d	—	—	-1	4.8	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Return to Tapeta ought to help after a fruitless spell on turf but is completely exposed
9 (8)	River Blackwater Grey J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	125	—	8444	55	68	-	34d	—	—	-2	2.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Has to improve for the step up to 6f, with her nursery-debut fourth nothing exciting
11 (2)	Indy's Angel Bay J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Philip Kirby	J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Philip Kirby	123	—	675	53	68	-	25d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-2	1.6	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Half-sister to yard's Tapeta winners Fircombe Hall and Please Please Me; watch the market
10 (4)	Layaali Bay J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	125	—	865	55	61	-	69d	—	—	-1	2.1	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Market will guide for new yard, back from ten weeks off, now handicapping at a lowly level
NR (12)	Saytarr Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Charlie Fellowes	134	p	57332	64	73	66	5d	—	—	—	12.1	—	—
Holds obvious claims on his two nursery efforts and is shortlisted despite the wide stall

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Ellomate	2/1	2/1	2/1
Brooke Winder	5/1	5/1	5/1
Monticristo Boy	6/1	13/2	6/1
Gold Black	6/1	13/2	13/2
Fallen Soldier	9/1	8/1	10/1
Water Music	16/1	12/1	14/1
Emporess	14/1	14/1	14/1
Deal Maker	14/1	16/1	14/1
River Blackwater	18/1	16/1	18/1
Indy's Angel	28/1	22/1	28/1
Layaali	40/1	22/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ellomate

17.8

OR: 3.8 Form: 5.6 Odds: 8.4

2/1

2nd

Saytarr

12.1

OR: 3.5 Form: 8.6 Odds: 0

—

3rd

Brooke Winder

7.9

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Emporess

6.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Fallen Soldier

6.5

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Gold Black

6.1

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Water Music

5.9

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Monticristo Boy

4.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

13/2

Deal Maker

4.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.7

16/1

River Blackwater

2.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Layaali

2.1

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

40/1

Indy's Angel

1.6

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Water Music	67	64	31
Fallen Soldier	66	71	—
Ellomate	65	70	50
Brooke Winder	64	71	—
Emporess	64	69	47
Saytarr	64	73	66
Gold Black	61	68	—
Deal Maker	60	70	15
River Blackwater	55	68	—
Layaali	55	61	—
Monticristo Boy	53	70	—
Indy's Angel	53	68	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Saytarr	5d ago	Quick return
Deal Maker	25d ago	Fit
Indy's Angel	25d ago	Fit
Ellomate	27d ago	Fit
Gold Black	34d ago	Fit
Emporess	34d ago	Fit
River Blackwater	34d ago	Fit
Fallen Soldier	45d ago	Fit
Brooke Winder	46d ago	Fresh
Water Music	53d ago	Fresh
Monticristo Boy	59d ago	Fresh
Layaali	69d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 6f16y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.