Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:03

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2025-01-08

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,711

Winning Time 1m 30.04s (slow by 6.24s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Tasever (GB) Ryan Kavanagh · Patrick Morris	6/1	Won
2nd	Ahamoment (IRE) Adam Farragher · David & Nicola Barron	6/1	3
3rd	Rebecca's Girl (IRE) Archie Young · Gary Rutherford	3/1J	2
4th	Pallas Lord (IRE) Clifford Lee · Donald Whillans	9/1	0.3
5th	Drafted (IRE) Alistair Rawlinson · Danny Brooke	8/1	3.5
6th	Keep Me Stable (IRE) Tommie Jakes · Linda Perratt	12/1	5.5
7th	Wyvern (GB) David Nolan · Patrick Morris	3/1J	0.3
8th	Marcello Si (GB) Sean Kirrane · Michael Dods	40/1	3.25
9th	Belle Flora (GB) Joanna Mason · Peter Niven	33/1	4.75
10th	Drakeholes (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Alison Hamilton	12/1	9

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (5)	Wyvern Brown J:David Nolan T:Patrick Morris	J:David Nolan T:Patrick Morris	135	p	41462-	62	75	55	11d	—	—	-4	17.2	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Four-time AW winner who didn't get any luck when runner-up here (1m) latest; key player
4 (10)	Rebecca's Girl Bay J:Archie Young(5) T:Gary Rutherford	J:Archie Young(5) T:Gary Rutherford	133	b	05123-	60	79	67	22d	—	—	-1	20.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
In good form here in last three runs and she should give it another good shot
1 (11)	Ahamoment Bay J:Adam Farragher T:David & Nicola Barron	J:Adam Farragher T:David & Nicola Barron	135	—	41044-	62	75	62	18d	—	—	-3	9.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Won at Ayr in September and was an eyecatching fourth over C&D last time; dangerous
5 (3)	Drafted Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Danny Brooke	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Danny Brooke	133	p	78513-	60	73	49	30d	—	—	+5	15.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
2-5 on AW and was a creditable third in his bid for a C&D double latest; respected
6 (2)	Tasever Bay J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Patrick Morris	J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Patrick Morris	133	p	11773-	60	74	60	11d	—	—	+3	13.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Two 1m wins here in November and was a close third here last time; respected back in trip
9 (4)	Pallas Lord Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Donald Whillans	J:Clifford Lee T:Donald Whillans	131	—	8558-7	58	73	53	6d	—	—	-4	4.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Five wins here early last year but he's finished down the field in last seven runs
8 (7)	Drakeholes Grey J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alison Hamilton	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alison Hamilton	131	—	14137-	58	74	55	22d	—	—	+7	12.8	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Two C&D wins in the autumn but he didn't fire here in his final run last year
11 (9)	Keep Me Stable Bay J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(5) T:Linda Perratt	129	—	49293-	56	77	64	11d	—	—	+3	8.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Triple C&D winner who was placed behind a dual subsequent winner here latest; in the mix
7 (12)	Belle Flora Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Peter Niven	J:Joanna Mason T:Peter Niven	131	—	4954/	58	64	-	475d	—	—	-1	3	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Unexposed 4yo but she makes her handicap/stable debut after a long absence; best watched
12 (8)	Marcello Si Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	J:Sean Kirrane T:Michael Dods	124	—	41698-	51	75	66	18d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+2	3.7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Out of sorts since returning from an absence in November and needs a major revival
NR (1)	Lahab Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Michael Wigham	J:NON-RUNNER T:Michael Wigham	134	h	5729-3	61	78	61	6d	—	—	—	5.8	—	—
Placed here in two of his last three runs and he's respected back up in trip
NR (6)	Thanks Dad Bay J:Harrison Shaw T:Scott Dixon	J:Harrison Shaw T:Scott Dixon	130	t	38545-	57	75	67	22d	—	—	—	2.4	—	—
Fair fifth over C&D last month but he's now 0-13 and others are preferred

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Wyvern	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	3/1
Rebecca's Girl	3/1	10/3	3/1	10/3	3/1
Ahamoment	5/1	11/2	11/2	5/1	11/2
Drafted	8/1	15/2	8/1	7/1	7/1
Tasever	8/1	15/2	8/1	15/2	15/2
Pallas Lord	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	10/1
Drakeholes	12/1	11/1	11/1	12/1	11/1
Keep Me Stable	16/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Belle Flora	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	20/1
Marcello Si	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1
Lahab	-	-	-	-	-
Thanks Dad	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Rebecca's Girl

20.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 11.5 Odds: 6.2

10/3

2nd

Wyvern

17.2

OR: 3 Form: 8 Odds: 6.2

3/1

3rd

Drafted

15.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 10 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Tasever

13.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 8 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Drakeholes

12.8

OR: 2 Form: 9.1 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Ahamoment

9.6

OR: 3 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Keep Me Stable

8.6

OR: 1.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Lahab

5.8

OR: 2.8 Form: 3 Odds: 0

—

Pallas Lord

4.1

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Marcello Si

3.7

OR: 0.3 Form: 3 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Belle Flora

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1

28/1

Thanks Dad

2.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Wyvern	62	75	55
Ahamoment	62	75	62
Lahab	61	78	61
Rebecca's Girl	60	79	67
Drafted	60	73	49
Tasever	60	74	60
Pallas Lord	58	73	53
Drakeholes	58	74	55
Belle Flora	58	64	—
Thanks Dad	57	75	67
Keep Me Stable	56	77	64
Marcello Si	51	75	66

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Pallas Lord	6d ago	Quick return
Lahab	6d ago	Quick return
Wyvern	11d ago	Quick return
Tasever	11d ago	Quick return
Keep Me Stable	11d ago	Quick return
Ahamoment	18d ago	Fit
Marcello Si	18d ago	Fit
Rebecca's Girl	22d ago	Fit
Drakeholes	22d ago	Fit
Thanks Dad	22d ago	Fit
Drafted	30d ago	Fit
Belle Flora	475d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.